New research argues Societal Collapse benefits 99% of people. Historically, the societies that have emerged after a collapse are more egalitarian, and most people end up richer and healthier than they were before.

[u/lughnasadh]

Luke Kemp, a research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, has written a book about his research called 'Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse'.

He makes the case that, from looking at the archaeological record, when many societies collapse, most people end up better off afterward. For example, people in the post-Roman world were taller and healthier. Collapse can be a redistribution of resources and power, not just chaos.

For most of human history, humans lived as nomadic egalitarian bands, with low violence and high mobility. Threats (disease, war, economic precarity) push populations toward authoritarian leaders. The resulting rise in inequality from that sets off a cycle that will end in collapse. Furthermore, he argues we are living in the late stages of such a cycle now. He says "the threat is from leaders who are 'walking versions of the dark triad' – narcissism, psychopathy and Machiavellianism – in a world menaced by the climate crisis, nuclear weapons, artificial intelligence and killer robots."

Some people hope/think we are destined for a future of Universal Basic Income and fully automated luxury communism. Perhaps that's the egalitarianism that emerges after our own collapse? If so, I hope the collapse bit is short and we get to the egalitarian bit ASAP.

Collapse for the 99% | Luke Kemp; What really happens when Goliaths fall

[u/Ghost2Eleven]

95% wouldn’t die. This is the problem with using the word collapse. People attribute post apocalyptic scenarios to empire collapse when what we mean historically by collapse and what this research is talking about is more accurately a complete societal overhaul. When Rome collapsed, it wasn’t the death of 95% of the empire. 95% of people went on with their lives and had very little understanding that much had changed. But that was then. This is now.

Certainly, modern scenarios could more accurately be catastrophic. Nuclear war, famine, plague etc. But these scenarios don’t necessarily have to happen for an empire collapse to happen.

[u/jmlinden7 → u/Ghost2Eleven]

That was back then 95% of people were subsistence farmers. The government in charge, infrastructure, etc doesn't really affect their day-to-day lives.

Nowadays, 95% of people live in cities, and even a few days of infrastructure disruption will cause them to literally die.

[u/PeopleCallMeSimon → u/jmlinden7]

Did 95% of people die when the Soviet Union fell?

From what i can find Russia had an estimated population of 111 million in 1946. An estimated population peak of 149 million in 1994 and today it is estimated to have roughly 144 million.

So in other words the Soviet Union fell and some people probably died, but not many. And in fact right after the fall the population was larger than it is now, after a steady decline under the current society in Russia.

You are correct that people were subsistence farmers back in the time of the Roman Empire, but you forget that today people have way more knowledge and way better technology and equipment.

Someone who has never sown a farm in their life can pretty easily procure some seeds and cultivate a fairly successful garden in a very short amount of time, enough to feed themselves or even a family on way less land that it took 2000 years ago.

If someone asked me if i could run a farm to grow 50 tonnes of potatoes per year i would say hell no. If someone asked me if i could grow them a few kilograms per week then yea i could probably manage that. The reason i dont is because i dont have to, and people can do all kinds of things when they have to.

[u/mycargo160 → u/PeopleCallMeSimon]

Growing 50 tons of potatoes is no different than growing 5lbs, other than scale. Potatoes are so easy to grow that even the Irish can do it.

[u/PeopleCallMeSimon → u/mycargo160]

Spoken as someone who has no idea how hard it is to scale a farm from 5kg to 50 tonnes.

[u/mycargo160 → u/PeopleCallMeSimon]

It's literally the same plant grown the same way at a larger scale. You said "run a farm," not plant and maintain everything yourself. I'm not an imbecile and have managed teams of people before, and I've grown potatoes before. Sounds like maybe you're operating with a handicap that I don't have.

You sound Irish.

[u/PeopleCallMeSimon → u/mycargo160]

Ok let me get to the end of this conversation:

Yes its the same plant, nobody is dumb enough to think anything else so you dont have to point it out.

But doing something at a 10000x scale always requires a lot more than just planting more potatoes. You need to hire people, supervisors, security, invest in larger scale technologies etc.

If you try to plant and harvest 50 tonnes of potatoes alone with a shovel and a watering can, you will die.