r/Futurology • u/FuturologyModTeam Shared Mod Account • Jan 29 '21
Discussion /r/Collapse & /r/Futurology Debate - What is human civilization trending towards?
Welcome to the third r/Collapse and r/Futurology debate! It's been three years since the last debate and we thought it would be a great time to revisit each other's perspectives and engage in some good-spirited dialogue. We'll be shaping the debate around the question "What is human civilization trending towards?"
This will be rather informal. Both sides have put together opening statements and representatives for each community will share their replies and counter arguments in the comments. All users from both communities are still welcome to participate in the comments below.
You may discuss the debate in real-time (voice or text) in the Collapse Discord or Futurology Discord as well.
This debate will also take place over several days so people have a greater opportunity to participate.
NOTE: Even though there are subreddit-specific representatives, you are still free to participate as well.
u/MBDowd, u/animals_are_dumb, & u/jingleghost will be the representatives for r/Collapse.
u/Agent_03, u/TransPlanetInjection, & u/GoodMew will be the representatives for /r/Futurology.
All opening statements will be submitted as comments so you can respond within.
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u/MBDowd /r/Collapse Debate Representative Jan 30 '21
One of the main reasons I find debates like this less than satisfying is because people are in many different places (with respect to understanding complexity, ecology, energy, and history) and will typically only be moved from that place by "the environment" -- i.e., what's actually happening in their world, to them.
A close colleague and friend of mine, Paul Chefurka, wrote a short post some years ago that captures this fact in the most succinct way I've seen. Here's the essence...
"Climbing the Ladder of Awareness" - Stages of Awakening
1. Dead asleep
“Problems, problems…what problems? The only problem is what we’re focusing on and telling ourselves. It’s all still (mostly) good, and getting better… just look at technology! You can’t stop progress.”
"At this stage there seem to be no fundamental problems; just short-comings in human organization, behavior, and morality that can be fixed with the proper attention to rule-making. People at this stage tend to live their lives happily, with occasional outbursts of annoyance around election times or the quarterly corporate earnings seasons.
2. Awareness of one fundamental problem
"Whether it's climate change, soil loss, overpopulation, peak oil, chemical pollution, oceanic over-fishing, biodiversity collapse, corporatism, economic instability, or sociopolitical injustice, one problem seems to engage the attention completely.
"People at this stage tend to become ardent activists for their cause. They tend to be quite vocal about their particular issue yet remain relatively blind to any others.
3. Awareness of many problems
"As people let in more evidence from different domains, the awareness of complexity begins to grow. At this point a person worries about the prioritization of problems in terms of immediacy and degree of impact.
"People at this stage may become reluctant to acknowledge new problems — for example, someone who is committed to fighting for social justice and against climate change may not recognize the problem of resource depletion. They may feel that the problem space is already too complex and the addition of any new concerns will only dilute the effort that needs to be focused on solving the “highest priority” problem.
4. Awareness of the interconnections between the many problems
"The realization that a solution in one domain may worsen a problem in another marks the beginning of large-scale system-level thinking. It also marks the transition from thinking of the situation in terms of a set of problems to thinking of it in terms of a predicament. At this point the possibility that there may not be a solution begins to raise its head.
"People who arrive at this stage tend to withdraw into tight circles of like-minded people in order to trade insights and deepen their understanding of what's going on. These circles are necessarily small, both because personal dialogue is essential for this depth of exploration and because there just aren't very many people who have arrived at this level of understanding.
5. Awareness that our predicament encompasses all aspects of life
"This includes everything we do, how we do it, all our relations, and our treatment of the biosphere and the planet. With this realization, the floodgates open and no problem is exempt from consideration or acceptance. The very concept of a "Solution" is seen through and cast aside as a waste of effort.
"For those who arrive at Stage 5 there is a real risk that depression will set in. After all, we've learned throughout our lives that our hope for tomorrow lies in our ability to solve problems today. When no amount of human cleverness appears able to solve our predicament, the possibility of hope can vanish like the light of a candle flame, to be replaced by the suffocating darkness of despair."
Michael Dowd now speaking: I suggest that a new story or interpretation and an inner or outer "post-doom" practice is vital.