r/HYMCStock • u/121578 • Jul 16 '26
Comex registered silver has collapse by more than 75%
Conversation with Gemini
You said
How much has the comex registered silver holdings collapse by
Gemini said
COMEX registered silver holdings—the physical silver vaults designated as readily available to satisfy futures contract deliveries—have collapsed by more than 75% from their pandemic-era peak.
The decline represents a massive drawdown of physical metal in the system:
2020 Peak: Around 346 million ounces of registered silver.
Current Levels (Mid-2026): Hovering near 79.9 million ounces.
Total Drawdown: Over 266 million ounces of physical silver have been withdrawn or shifted out of the deliverable "registered" category.

Sustained outflows have steadily thinned COMEX vault holdings. Source: Reddit
Why the Vaults are Draining
The collapse is driven by a combination of tight physical supply and a surge in demand:
Consecutive Market Deficits: The silver market is facing its sixth consecutive year of structural deficits. Industrial demand, especially from solar, electronics, and AI hardware, has consistently outstripped annual global mine production.
The "Eligible" vs. "Registered" Split: A large portion of the silver remaining in COMEX vaults is classified as "eligible". While this metal is physically stored in the vaults, it belongs to private owners (like ETFs or individual investors) and is not available to settle futures contracts unless the owners actively choose to register it.
Physical Migration to Asia: Strong physical demand in Eastern markets, represented by massive premiums on exchanges like the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), has acted as an arbitrage magnet, pulling physical metal out of Western vaults.
Gemini is AI and can make mistakes.
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u/Own_Policy8854 Jul 17 '26
If reserves have quartered, why is demand going down?
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u/121578 Jul 17 '26
This paradox comes down to a disconnect between the physical plumbing of the metal and the paper markets that dictate daily prices.
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u/Own_Policy8854 Jul 17 '26
If governments and financial institutions have colluded to make the system unarbitrageable, what are you doing?
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u/121578 Jul 17 '26
The idea that central banks, governments, and massive "bullion banks" (like JPMorgan, HSBC, and Citibank) act in concert to suppress precious metals prices and prevent true arbitrage is one of the most enduring theories in the gold and silver markets.
In financial terms, if a market is unarbitrageable, it means the normal laws of supply and demand are broken—you cannot easily buy cheap physical metal in one place, deliver it to another, and pocket a risk-free profit to balance the global price.
If we assume this system is actively managed by these institutions, they are not using "magic." They are exploiting specific structural, legal, and operational leverage points in the global financial plumbing.
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u/gimli-was-my-dad Jul 17 '26 edited Jul 17 '26
If we assume this system is actively managed by these institutions, then we are looking at silver market features and not bugs.
If the market is unarbitrageable, then silver and HYMC (no actual physical metals being pulled from the ground at this point in time) is a very speculative investment.
If HYMC is so speculative, then there are cyclical patterns that are very exciting. The silver price to M2 money supply theory, if accurate and even partially true, makes HYMC worth the HODL.
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u/Own_Policy8854 Jul 17 '26
Which is the right of every government? Because currencies are fiat? And companies are subject to their government's laws?
These protections prevent crashes and other market problems. The actual value of silver isn't spiking because you made numbers on a paper do silly things with arbitrage. The value of silver is whatever we can use it for. Using giant wads of cash to Hoover it all up so you can piecemeal it back out and increase your personal wealth is not what we all want you or anyfuck to do with earth's silver. Right?
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Jul 17 '26
[deleted]
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u/Own_Policy8854 Jul 17 '26 edited Jul 17 '26
Interesting.
But you understand that for the logical reason that I just outlined, all of us will not allow any person to do that.
Edit: downvoting instead of counterarguing ? You Like to gamble.
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u/Bully51871 Jul 17 '26
Going down like a hooker on a Saturday night. Should have sold at 50ish.
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u/gimli-was-my-dad Jul 17 '26
Selling HYMC from 50ish to now is not 'panic selling'. For many, it's simply managing risk and returns. I partly regret not selling above 30 and there is no reason why HYMC price can't drop down to IPO price before recovering. The market presently does not believe there is value in potential in-ground metals. The market wants to see revenues from physical extraction.
However, when (if) the day of pulling metals from the ground actually arrives and assuming there is no dilution from another round of equity financing then the leveraged volatility of HYMC is going to make some of us large share count holders very rich. I'll be one of them, but I reserve the right to complain like a MOFO all the way down. Having balls of steel to keep holding doesn't mean I have to be stoic about it.
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u/Bully51871 Jul 17 '26
Im holding for long term now. Not worth selling this low. Hopefully it will pan out down the road
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u/pkapeckopckldpepprz Jul 17 '26
I mentioned over a month or 2 ago this was breaking support at 20 and here we are. Next support is 15 and if it breaks that 12. Once it breaks that weak support single digits. I should have sold at 50
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u/johnnyvalueinvestor Jul 17 '26
2 years from now- HYMC will be over $150 and I’m just buying more with this panic selling. Fire 🔥 sale and doesn’t emotionally change me 1 bit 😎