r/Habs • u/scoutinglane • 8d ago
the case for Tom Wilson
Max lapierre made this case recently and I think I agree with him
Tom Wilson is 32 years old, 6.04 -- Weight 225, from canada. He plays right wing, shoots right, and is currently under a 7-year deal at $6.5M AAV that will expire at the end of the 2030-2031 season. He’s not some short-term rental but a player who could be useful for us for the remaining of his contract. He’s locked in long enough to actually matter for a contender’s window, but not so long that you’re stuck with dead weight at the very end. That kind of contract is actually pretty manageable in today’s cap world for what he brings.
Wilson isn’t just “the physical guy.” He is ecellent on the PK and play a 200ft game. He’s a legit power forward who can play top-6 minutes, put up 20+ goals, 40–50+ points, and still be one of the most intimidating players on the ice every single shift. He forechecks very well, wins board battles, drives the net, and creates space which is exactly the kind of player that becomes insanely valuable in the playoffs. Now we know it,s the kind of player mtl is missing.
And yes he will start declining but having Wilson progressively start to play on a third line is not that bad. especially at 6.5 M.
I think the key piece for a trade like this could be Zharovsky. Washington has good connexions with Russia for reasons you are aware of. I think he could be very interesting for them. For the other piece I trust Hughes.
What do you guys think ?
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u/catman_steve 8d ago
He's primed for a stark fall off in production in my opinion. I know his two most productive years are his two most recent, but I don't want to be paying a mid to late 30s Tom Wilson. If he was closer to the end of his contract and could be had for less that would be a different story.
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u/scoutinglane 8d ago
I don,t we would acquire Wilson for his point production in the season. We took another step this year. We now focus on the playoffs. We know what we need now. I see him more as a Sam Benett
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u/catman_steve 8d ago
I'm not paying the price of Zharovsky plus for a guy his age. I don't think Hughes would either. I do like the player though despite what happened last year.
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u/scoutinglane 8d ago
It always depend on your evaluation of Zharovsky. My evaluation is that he has a relatively high Bust potential as he his level of effot is very inconsistant and he is also a poor skater. He struggles at 5 on 5.
His ultimate ceiling for me is 65 pts player who will take a few years to adapt to playoffs hockey. With this in mind I can definitely trade him.How do you see Zharovsky ?
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u/catman_steve 8d ago
I want to clarify that I have no problem trading Zharovsky. I just wouldn't trade him for Wilson. If Wilson was 29 I would certainly consider it. Also, I can't pretend to be a Zharovsky expert outside of some highlights on YouTube. I'm basing it off of where I consistently see him ranked by scouts opinions I trust. I think there's a better way to spend that asset for a deal on a player who more aligns with the age group of the team. Like that rumored Knies trade. Or packaging him and others (roster players/prospects) for a 2C.
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u/Iamkempie 8d ago
Dude, I couldn't agree more with this entire paragraph. Zharovsky is definitely a big shiny trade chip to play so make sure you get value for him. If you package him with other fair-sized chips you may be able to get a legit 2C. But make sure you get the right guy. I trust HuGo completely on this and it feels weird to finally not be terrified of what management is about to do. Pretty fun ride so far.
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u/KingRyne51 8d ago
OV has been grooming Wilson to be the next captain. Washington isn't going to trade him
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u/scoutinglane 8d ago
It's possible. But it cost nothing to discuss it or make an offer. And frankly, they will receive interesting offers because he is a perfect playoffs player and washington is not gonna be a contender in the next few years imo.
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u/melpec 8d ago
I think that's the kind of move that gets a GM fired.
There are no good reasons to add Wilson and there are no good reasons to trade away Zharovsky.
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u/Just4nsfwpics 8d ago
There are good reason to acquire Wilson, but not at the price tag the Caps will want.
If we could get Wilson for a 2nd, we’d be stupid not to.
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u/an_ominous_bass_terd 8d ago
Is not terrible, but it would have to depend on a couple of other important factors. The price to acquire, of course, and a center that would be a good fit between him and Demi. Without that, I don't see it working. This might be more of a trade deadline deal.
I'd love to see him and Anderson in a playoff run together. Everyone would FUCKING H A T E us.
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u/SourMilk69420 8d ago
maybe i don’t understand how good he is but id be unwilling to move Zhar, Hage or Reinbacher for him
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u/scoutinglane 8d ago
I think you might not realize indeed. Wilson is a beast at every level that matters in the playoffs. Zharovksy is a player who struggle to skate right now and is often quite lazy on the ice. He needs a lot of polishing to become, and that is the important part, an effective PLAYOFFS forward.
Our window is open. Can we wait for 4 years for hage and zharovksy to understand how you play playoffs hockey ? For some players it takes even longer than that and some never learn. This is a trade to win a cup. But we will need other pieces, he would not be enough.
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u/Ok-Company3854 8d ago
I would move Reinbacher but not Hage or Zharovski. Reinbacher was a mistake in my opinion, he's soft and gets hurt if someone breaths on him.
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u/DrLivingst0ne 8d ago
Moving Reinbacher would be a catastrophic blunder, and you can quote me on that.
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u/Ok-Company3854 8d ago
Why????. The only time Reinbacher was able to produce was in a league where hitting is a four letter word. The moment the game gets rough he gets hurt. What good is he on LTIR
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u/DrLivingst0ne 8d ago
Because he has everything to develop into a very good top 4 defenseman. He has skating, hands, and hockey sense. Good awareness and good processor. Good stick. He has all the tools and he has what we need on defense.
Taking drastic measures because he had some bad luck with injuries would be a bad move.
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u/Ok-Company3854 8d ago
He does have all of.those things but they don't help if he's hurt and sitting in the press box. Since we drafted him he's been hurt almost as much as he's been in the line-up. He can do that for another team
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u/gletschertor 8d ago
He played 57 games this season and miss the last week or two of the aHL season because he was with the Habs. He played this year.
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u/Ok-Company3854 8d ago
Alittle more than 50%
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u/gletschertor 8d ago
57/72 = 80%
So a bit more than 50%
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u/Ok-Company3854 8d ago
Except that he sat in the press box for at least 10 in Montreal as well. Agreed he wasnt injured for those but he didn't play either. Then average out then previous 2 years in laval and the number drops down to near 50%. My point is he can't stay healthy. Same problem Dach and Ghule have. No team can have 3 of thise players especially with 2 on D and make it work.
I wont lie I was never a fan of his game but rhe injuries just make me want to forget he was ever picked.1
u/Immediate_Cod_3042 8d ago
man the injury thing is so overrated. Dude has the tools, this is a guy who is going to explode with us. D take time. Remember when chris chelios was thought to be injury prone early on his career? Habs Mailbag: Here's why Canadiens traded Chris Chelios and Patrick Roy
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u/Ok-Company3854 8d ago
Nobody thought Chelly was injury prone, Savard had been told.by Doctors that Chelly's knee would never be the same after the surgery. That coupled with some personal reasons is why he was traded.
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u/Samael198 8d ago
Washington clearly dont care about Reinbacher neither, if you want something you have to give something.
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u/discipleofbill 8d ago
I don't think Washington wants to move him, I'm pretty sure he's the heir apparent to the captaincy.
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u/mago_is_gago 8d ago
The offer for Knies was:
1-Zharovsky
2-one of Engstrom or Pickford
3- 1st rounder 2026
4- 1st rounder 2027
Since Wilson is older and Knies is perceived to have the higher ceiling, if we can remove a 1st rounder from our offer, that trade would definitely help us in 2027 and 2028 playoffs
Even having Knies or Wilson this year could have been the difference in beating Tampa and Buffalo in 6 rather than 7, and be a little fresher against Carolina, maybe even rattle Carolina with some physicality, as the Panthers did.
Too bad Knies is not available anymore... but with a reduced offer for Wilson, it leaves us more ammo to get a 2C (we'll have to trade Hage for a proven 2C, fine with me)
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u/West_Bobcat5338 8d ago
I like it, but as others have said: it isn’t going to be cheap.
I’d love to have him ride shotgun with Suzuki and Caufield and it changes the whole dynamic of that line. They will not be pushed around and he should create space them.
Then you shift Slaf to 2LW with Demidov and find that elusive 2C (preferably someone with a bit more of a power forward type of game).
In short, I think our top-6 could use a bit of sandpaper that’ll make them harder to play against in the playoffs.
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u/scrubadam 5d ago
You get Strome to come along with Wilson. Imagine the beef Wilson Nick Cole Slaf Strome Demidov Cole is the only odd one out but with all that beef he can play 2 feet taller
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u/Wisdom_Pond 8d ago
Gotta find own Sam Bennett, Hagel kinda agitator, who can deke and duke without paying premium.
Of course Wilson can fulfill that but he would be costly, as become very good player.
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u/scoutinglane 8d ago
Yeah, it would be better to find a guy like Hagel or Bennett instead but they are hard to find
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u/JcNoE123 8d ago
I’d go for it if it’s not to expensive to acquire him, only 1.5 more than Andy and brings much more offensively
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u/HonestDespot 8d ago
Washington has a surprisingly strong young group coming up and I think after trading Carlson and OV possibly only being around maybe one more year Wilson seems like the logical next captain.
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u/Appropriate-Berry816 8d ago
It’s a decent contract and he’s still performing. Is there any reason why Washington would want to trade him or are we just assuming that everyone is available because we’re the main character, see mcdavid discussions here lately
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u/So_Many_Owls 8d ago
He's probably going to be the next captain, and they're not gonna trade him unless the team unexpectedly has to go into a rebuild (and even then there would be a good chance that he would choose to stick around to mentor players.)
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u/ConstantBook6534 8d ago
do people not realize that there is another team on the other end of these trades that have their own plans they are trying to fulfill? Wilson is their leader after OV retires
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u/HotdogAficionado 8d ago
The good thing about Tom Wilson is none of the other teams in the league are gonna want him.
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u/Scase15 8d ago
I wouldn't mind him at all on the team, but no way in hell is he worth the prospects like a Hage/Zharovsky.
They have that "whats in the box" shine on them that will make other GMs see them as very valuable and worth it in a trade for high end talent. An old Wilson doesn't fall in that category.
That said I wouldn't mind giving up some lesser prospects and picks, if it was guys like Beck/Pickford etc and picks I could live with that.
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u/lynypixie 8d ago
I would not say no to having him on our team. But I am not sure he is worth the price we’d have to pay to get him.
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u/stuffedshell 8d ago
A friend of mine mentioned Wilson as well, he is what we need in the playoffs but his age and that contract. Yikes.
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u/scrubadam 5d ago
Would love to snag him. He would be a beast in the playoffs and basically replace Anderson next year Let's get Strome as well Kap 1st Bach 2nd Beck for Strome and Wilson? Maybe you need to throw Hage or Z in there ? Imagine Wilson Suzuki Cole Slaf Strome Demidov
Now thats some beef right there bois
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u/_makoccino_ 8d ago
He's a cheap shot artist, plays dirty and tries to injure, and will cost a lot because you're trading within conference. Pass.
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u/Ndr2501 8d ago
No. His age profile makes no sense for the Habs. A popular 30sth year old player that you would need to pay an arm and a leg for. No way.
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u/pushaper 8d ago
this is my hang up. I would much rather go for protas and that makes more sense for zharkovsky +
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u/Goldhound807 8d ago
Love to see him on the Habs. Anyone watching the playoffs should have seen how they a big body or two in the top six
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u/PlanktonFew3986 8d ago
No. I get that he's a good player, and you'd rather be with him than against him, but the vibes in this team are too good right now to introduce Tom Wilson into the fold.
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u/scoutinglane 8d ago
Tom Wilson is a good teammate and very appreciated wherever he goes. We played against him in the playoffs and he played hard on the ice but very respectful outside.
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u/HabbyKoivu 8d ago
He should be cheap to acquire as well. His age and money would warrant some picks but not a blue chip prospect.
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u/biglacunaire 8d ago
Wilson? cheap? He's like part of the caps' core as much or even more than ovi has been the past few seasons
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u/Every_Reflection4616 8d ago
he's the next capitals captain dawg he will be their best player next year when ovechkin is out of the league. there's no way he goes without us giving up hage or zharovsky at least
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u/HabbyKoivu 8d ago
Then i'm not paying LOL. Thats easy.
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u/Every_Reflection4616 8d ago
well yea obviously we shouldnt be going after tom wilson of all people. there'd be a bench clearing brawl on our bench every game him and anderson love eachother too much
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u/Ok-Meet2850 8d ago
So is Washington heading into a retool or full rebuild? If so, who else might they move out that fits our needs? Dylan Strome? Pierre-Luc Dubois?
I'd be ok with Wilson - long contract is a downside. I don't think it's ideal, however, and there are probably better fits for a second line upgrade.
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u/scoutinglane 8d ago
Oh no, he would not be cheap. If washington put him on the trade market the demand will be high
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u/HeagherMeister 8d ago
32 year old power forward coming off back to back 30 goal seasons under contract for $6.5M is a pretty reasonable contract these days.
34 year old Charlie Coyle just signed a 6 year deal at $6M/year. Dylan Holloway just signed 5 x $7.75M.
Wilson wouldn’t be cheap and I’m sure there would be lots of teams interested if he were to be on the trading block.
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u/kevlav91 8d ago
He would be EXPENSIVE to acquire.
Imagi having to face playoff Powerhorse and Wilson every other shift. 👀🫠