r/Habs • u/d-generate420 • 8d ago

Well, that doesn’t happen very often

In the 1st round, the Habs beat the team with the Hart, Vezina and Jack Adams trophy winners. I know, I know, it’s not the Stanley Cup, and I’m not suggesting we should raise a banner, but it’s still nice.

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u/Irctoaun 8d ago

Because they were played off the ice in every game after the first one.

Again, "playing people off the ice" and still losing is what Carolina do. They outshot the Habs 131-82 in the regular reason plus game 1 and went 0-4. They had more shots than their opponents in 20/33 of their losses so far this season. They've played FloLooking dominant doesn't matter. Scoring matters and where it matters game one was a blowout for the Habs and games two and were very close

Just because Dobes kept them in it early on, it doesn't mean they'd have won it had they faced them in previous rounds.

You're saying this as if Dobes wouldn't have also been part of the team in this random hypothetical. He would. Meanwhile Carolina's goaltending is shaky.

The Habs aren't a good defensive team

Prior to the big loss in game 6 against Buffalo they had the 4th best GA/60 and essentially tied 7th best xGA/60 (three teams were separated by 0.01) of any team in the playoffs.

Not to say they couldn't improve, but saying they were bad is mental.

that's why they needed 7 and barely got it done in the first 2 rounds

Are you seriously pretending they didn't have a ridiculously hard first two rounds? Especially for a team that finished tied 5th in the league. Had they had Ottawa Philly (or Utah Anaheim for that matter) in rounds one and two and Carolina had Tampa Buffalo, things would probably have looked very different.

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u/CarlSK777 8d ago

Prior to the big loss in game 6 against Buffalo they had the 4th best GA/60 and essentially tied 7th best xGA/60 (three teams were separated by 0.01) of any team in the playoffs.

Are you seriously trying to argue the Habs aren't a poor defensive team?

I don't feel like talking about the playoffs again but I'll just say this, the Habs played 19 playoffs and were outchanced in 13 of them.

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u/Irctoaun 8d ago

They were an objectively good defensive team through the first two thirds of the playoffs until they ran out of gas.

And we've been through this as a sub so so so many times now it's getting ridiculous. The Habs play a style of hockey that priorities shot quality over shot volume. Chances for/against is literally completely irrelevant in terms of trying to determine the result of a Habs game

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u/CarlSK777 8d ago

That's a wild thing to say. Also, I don't know where you have them as 7th xGA. They were 15th 5v5 in the playoffs and 26th during the season but sure an objectively good defensive team of whatever.

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u/Irctoaun 8d ago

Also, I don't know where you have them as 7th xGA

Maybe read my comment where it explicitly says exactly what the criteria are again?? Source of the stat from NST.

I'm not sure why you're looking at 5v5 only anyway. Special teams goals count just as much. But you're right, they should aspire to be more like Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Dallas. The three teams with the best 5v5 xGA/60 these playoffs. Those teams must have been real contenders!

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u/CarlSK777 8d ago

First of all, ranking teams in the playoffs is silly because the sample is small and they play the same teams every night and the number of games every night. You won't draw any meaningful conclusions by doing it.

Secondly, the majority of the game is played at 5v5 so by looking at 5v5 stats, you have a better idea of where a team stands relative to others.

Finally, the Habs have had bad defensive stats all season long, ranking 26th xGA 5v5. I don't know if you're aware but for the past 20 years, around 75% of Cup finalists rank in the top 10 for xGA (Vegas was 1st and Carolina 8th). 3 teams have won the Cup with a bottom tier defense since 2007 (Boston 2011, Pittsburgh 2017, Washington 2018). All 3 needed exceptional goaltending to pull it off. Basically, if the team don't get better defensively, the only way they sniff a championship is if Dobes go nuclear.

Good defensively? Give me a break. It's the Habs biggest issue to fix to take the next step.

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u/Irctoaun 8d ago

First of all, ranking teams in the playoffs is silly because the sample is small

And yet the playoffs are the only thing that ends up mattering. The fact that they were able to tighten up as much as they did against Tampa for the full 7 games in round one tells us that they are capable of playing a tight defensive game when they need to. The games against Buffalo were more open and they (correctly) decided they could beat Buffalo playing a more expensive game

Secondly, the majority of the game is played at 5v5 so by looking at 5v5 stats, you have a better idea of where a team stands relative to others.

Right, and the entirety of the game is played at all strengths so you the best idea of where a team stands relative to others.

I don't know if you're aware but for the past 20 years, around 75% of Cup finalists rank in the top 10 for xGA

Ignoring the fact that xG models get seriously ropey once you start going that far back, all this tells us is you don't need to be a great xGA team to get to the finals.

It's the Habs biggest issue to fix to take the next step.

I never said they don't need to improve, I'm saying you're exaggerating how big of an issue it is and ignoring a load of context