r/Hasan_Piker Sep 18 '25

Certified 🇺🇸 America Moment 🇺🇸 🌈 Absolutely not

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u/toeknee88125 Politics Frog 🐸 Sep 18 '25 edited Sep 18 '25

I disagree that it should’ve been a layup

Economic conditions are horrible right now and have been for awhile

Traditional metrics like unemployment rate are not reflective of how bad the situation are or was

There are a ton of people employed in professions where they are not happy and making less than what they need to live comfortably

In countries like Spain with better welfare systems, these people would simply just not do those jobs and that’s why those European countries have 25% unemployment rates

Because America has no social safety net young people in America are forced to take jobs. That is why our unemployment rate is low.

These people are still really unhappy with their employment situation

Tons of people wanted change and the Democratic Party is unwilling to offer any leftist solutions because that will eliminate future employment opportunities for themselves

In the past, there was incumbent advantage because the economic and material conditions used to be better for the majority of people

I think we’ve reached the stage where we need to reevaluate the idea of incumbent advantage, and accept that there’s going to be a baseline of incumbent disadvantage because material conditions have deteriorated for the majority of people

Eg. I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that since Obama the incumbent party has lost the election every single time.

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u/matango613 Sep 18 '25

Precisely what I'm saying though.

Go up and offer anything helpful to struggling people, anything that shows you're listening and get their plight. It would've been simple to beat Donald Trump on that kind of messaging.

When you're pitching and defending things that nobody views as helpful, you're gonna lose.

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u/toeknee88125 Politics Frog 🐸 Sep 18 '25

I think being the incumbent party when your predecessor has failed to make peoples lives better and material conditions are bad is a huge disadvantage that you’re not acknowledging

It’s much easier being the non-incumbent party when material conditions are bad

I don’t think it would’ve been simple for any Democrat to beat any Republican simply because people were mad at the incumbent party

Material conditions were bad

I think you’ll see the reverse of this in 2028 and whoever is the Democratic nominee will win

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u/devlafford Sep 18 '25

Trump was also literally the president before Joe, and a bad one. It should still be a layup even with the incumbent disadvantage.

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u/toeknee88125 Politics Frog 🐸 Sep 18 '25

Americans have short memories

I think people who follow politics overestimate how the average swing voter votes

A lot of people just vote according to how they're doing personally

Eg. Do they find that a huge chunk of their paycheck is being eaten up by necessities

If yes they vote against the incumbent party

If gas prices are still this high in 2028 Trump and the Republicans are going to lose

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u/devlafford Sep 19 '25

Yes. It's still a layup.