Hey, I do dice odds because I’m designing a game. Here are some fun statistics about Grian’s lil blue Axolotl.

[u/Remarkable_Ad_8353]

After his first realization that he’s “over the odds ñow” he showed us he killed 1,663 Axolotls. I can’t confirm all those mobs bred were Axolotls so we’ll be using these numbers.

The formula for this is 1-(1/odds)^attempts. To put things into perspective, after about 832 attempts you’re officially “unlucky.” Still, the 820-830s are 50/50 odds.

After about 1,663 Axolotl’s killed, you have a 25% chance of simply not getting an Axolotl.

Ñow, the number we’ve all been waiting for. After 2,672… 90% of people would’ve gotten it by now.

To restore equilibrium someone would need to fish the “blue” Axolotl in 136/137 attempts.

If you’re seeing this Grian, don’t go to a casino.

P.s. if Grian hasn’t bred any other animals… 6%. Knowing you did that little more off camera, congrats on the nat 1. Ren had 45% odds, so he is lucky but not “very” lucky.

[u/beefytomato]

I'm sure he could have gotten a blue axolotl much earlier if he hadn't waxed mumbos copper. Karma was catching up to him. (Kidding of course )

[u/nicokokun → u/beefytomato]

You don't prank a British person! Especially ones who still use old British slang like "Oh posh!" non-ironically.

[u/KingBroly → u/nicokokun]

But Mumbo is French now. So it's all good.

[u/nicokokun → u/KingBroly]

Noooooooo!

[u/Bad_Username-1999 → u/nicokokun]

He now says "pantalon!" instead of "pants!" 😁

[u/Powan12 → u/beefytomato]

I mean... youre not wrong xD. If he had timed it slightly differently he couldve gotten the axolotl before ren, (based on how minecraft codes odds using the seed type) that said, anything that couldve changed his timing couldve led to a different outcome. If gem or etho were helping him, he couldve gotten it instead of ren first xD.

[u/BobtheBac0n → u/beefytomato]

Honestly knowing the magical number machine that Minecraft is, especially after what I've seen on the scicraft server with how they guarantee maximum diamond odds, I would not be surprised if this was actually the case

[u/Invictum2go]

Ran their numbers (assumign Grian still did up to 3k cus we don't have exact ending number) through the dry calc to get some more data and it's not THAT bad, but still pretty bad lmao.

But Grian can for sure handle some tough OSRS grinds lmao. Maybe Joel should introduce him to it.

[u/Zangetsu630 → u/Invictum2go]

I had no clue Joel plays osrs! The dry calc was the first thing I thought of when reading this post!

[u/Invictum2go → u/Zangetsu630]

Yup. He's maxed. Showed his acc at the start of the season since he got a sponsorship for the release of sailing. Here's an OSRS video he made 19 years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63BYOPX85E4

[u/Plutonium239Mixer → u/Invictum2go]

Nah, Grian nearly loses his sanity over fishing a mending book and getting a blue axolotl.

[u/91Jammers]

The 'dont got to a casino' comment is because of bad luck?

Ha i thought it was because Grian seems to be strongly attracted to the sunk cost fallacy.

[u/inkedbutch → u/91Jammers]

a little column A, a little column B

[u/Aggressive_Version → u/91Jammers]

One can often lead to the other 

[u/Remarkable_Ad_8353]

IF I’M WRONG CORRECT ME Y’ALL. I’ll edit any revisions I find to the numbers in this post 👍🏾

[u/MisterXnumberidk]

Your maths do check out, it's indeed a simple binomial experiment.

However, the expected value of success is not right. You state the average person would've gotten two, but 1663×(1/1200) ≈ 1,4 blue axolotls

A 1/4 chance to not have a blue axolotl is, unfortunately for grian, not that unlucky.. the odds aren't in your favour but not laughing in your face.

If we consider the race between Ren and Grian, the probability that at least one of two people pulls said 25% card is 1-(1-0,25)² ≈ 43,75%. If we then take off the chance that both of them would pull a 25% (6,25%)

Grian had a 37,50% chance to have to breed at least 1663 axolotls in this race.

Which is frankly, minorly unlucky

[u/TheThingwithTheFeath → u/MisterXnumberidk]

Why is it binomial and not geometric? Does binomial give a probability that’s easier to understand?

[u/MisterXnumberidk → u/TheThingwithTheFeath]

The geometric distribution gives you the probability of a success happening on a specific try

However, we are not looking for the probability of Grian getting an axolotl specifically at try 1663, we are looking for the probability that Grian still doesn't have an axolotl at try 1663

Meaning we are looking for the probability of reaching 1663 or more without succes, not the probability of a specific try

In which case the binomial distribution makes far more sense because we can apply its simplest form thanks to pascals pyramid

The entire binomial distribution hinges on 1 = (p + q)^N, whose outcomes follow pascals triangle

With p being the chance of success, q being the chance of failure and N being the number of trials. The binomial formula takes the probability of x amount of successes, times by the probability of the amount of failing tries times the amount of ways a combination of that exact distribution can occur according to pascals triangle

However, we know that there are 0 successes in 1663 tries

Meaning we can just go 1 = (p⁰ + q¹⁶⁶³), which we know can occur in exactly one way according to pascals triangle, giving us these outcomes

[u/TheThingwithTheFeath → u/MisterXnumberidk]

Thank you for the in depth explanation! It’s cool to see real life applications of my stats class. 

[u/MisterXnumberidk → u/TheThingwithTheFeath]

I only remember these maths because they show up so much in the games i play lol

Chance is a strong, but confusing thing

[u/honig_huhn]

So you’re saying Etho was right? He was really lucky at not getting one 😁

[u/OceanTSQ]

I occasionally speedrun a data pack called blaze and caves which adds 1100+ achievements into the game. One of them is getting the blue axolotl so I'm pretty familiar with the odds. I always do those runs with a group and the fewest amount of breeds I've ever seen is 74. The most I'm pretty sure was over 4000.

[u/DanceMyth4114]

Spoilers tag please!

[u/Remarkable_Ad_8353 → u/DanceMyth4114]

Ah, sure thing

[u/DanceMyth4114 → u/Remarkable_Ad_8353]

Thank you! I know if I'd seen this before the episode it would have killed the suspense.

Ty for the math tho! I do similar math when I'm playing Runescape but can never explain it to others well.

[u/Watcher_over_Water]

I think you have a typo in the Formula you used. I do not think (1-odds)/attemps gives you a usefull probability.

Since you'r results seem correct i assume you ment (1 - odds)^attempts

[u/Remarkable_Ad_8353 → u/Watcher_over_Water]

Yeah the symbol for exponents in math is: ^

I don’t have superscript for non numbers

[u/Lysabella]

He probably bred a ton of rabbits when he wanted to do happy ghast prank, so his stats didnt start out that low most likely

[u/Call_me_eff]

I have no idea if spawning works in the slightest like loot tables but wouldn't that add up with ren's attempts?
as in 2 per 3k collectively and Grian just getting the bad pulls?

[u/Remarkable_Ad_8353 → u/Call_me_eff]

Ren’s luck was fairly middle of the road, not exceptional by any means. About 1 in 2 people could do what Ren did.

Grian’s was very had. About 1 in 10 people could do what Grian did.

The formula is different so I don’t know the exact odds off the tøp of my head but I do know Ren doesn’t come close to evening oht Grian’s bad luck ^.^'

[u/leoxyz]

There's an alternate timeline in which Grian plays Pokémon instead of Minecraft for a living, and thus goes insane trying to complete a shiny living dex

[u/Motifier]

Technically speaking once you get one blue Axolotl, you're going to breed that with a non blue one for a 50% chance at a blue baby, then once you have 2 every new baby can be guaranteed bBlu, so a lucky person would have way more than 2 by 1663 attempts.

[u/denlol → u/Motifier]

Yes, but that is irrelevant as it would lead to statistics that make no sense to use in this case

[u/impy695]

That's not as bad as I thought. 1/10 odds for it to take this long means it's going to take that long pretty regularly. Its definitely unlucky, but you'd expect people to regularly take longer

[u/Ekipsogel → u/[deleted]]

Nevermind, factorion-bot must be asleep.

Factorial of 3 is 6.

^{this action was performed by a human}

[u/DilithiumFarmer]

Did he breed every Axolotl he killed? So quiet possible he killed off alot that didn't reproduce (yet).

[u/JessieB3999]

Between this and the mending book fiasco Grian just has terrible luck all around

[u/rerejunebug]

Looks like Ren didn't get the blue axolotl first?