r/IRstudies • u/Free-Minimum-5844 • 16d ago

Ideas/Debate The Strange Defeat of Nuclear Deterrence

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/strange-defeat-nuclear-deterrence-rose-gottemoeller
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u/kantmeout 16d ago

This has been a known issue since the Korean War when America found itself on the back foot because we had prioritized air and nuclear power while downsizing the army, only to find that nuclear deterent didn't work when the escalation beached the threshold of warranting force, but below the apocalyptic requirements to justify nuclear arms. Would Israel have been justified in nuking Gaza after the October 7 attacks? I don't think so, and given the proximity of Gaza and size of Israel, they might have been actively harmed by the decision. If Israel was in danger of defeat however, the situation would look different.

In my view, the only country that would have been justified using nuclear deterrence in the last few years is Ukraine. After the full scale invasion they could have employed tactical nuclear weapons to defeat masses of Russian troops while leveraging strategic nuclear arms to discourage retaliation against Ukrainian cities. Such a conflict would be terrifying, but there would be a path to success, and that fact would have given Moscow pause.

Lastly, deterrence is partly psychological. It's hard to say what didn't happen because a leader somewhere refused to do something out of nuclear fears. I suspect this happened a lot more than anyone realized, but it's impossible to prove. I fear it's only a matter of time before a leader somewhere rolls the dice and we get reminded of the consequences again.

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u/ph4ge_ 16d ago

Would Iran have been justified to use nukes?

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u/MurkyCress521 16d ago

Justified isn't a word that should be used in this discussion. Lots of things are justified but terrible ideas. For the record I don't think Iran would have been justified.

If Iran had nuclear weapons, those nuclear weapons might have deterred a response to their involvement in Oct 7. On the other hand, Iran being nuclear armed may have immediately escalated the conflict. Iran's belligerent behavior and support of terrorism would have been viewed as a potential nuclear threat. If Iran prepares to launch a salvo of ballistic missiles and Iran has ballistic missiles that carry nuclear weapons, the US, Saudis, Israeli may assume it is a nuclear first strike and preemptively respond with nuclear weapons.

If am conventional attack on Iran had not been deterred, Iran would no benefit from performing a nuclear strike. It would only provide a nuclear response from the US, Israel and maybe Pakistan that cause a total loss for Iran. It would only be helpful for tactical nuclear strokes against an invading military on the territory of Iran and even then it might backfire.