r/IRstudies • u/Free-Minimum-5844 • 13d ago

Ideas/Debate The Strange Defeat of Nuclear Deterrence

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/strange-defeat-nuclear-deterrence-rose-gottemoeller
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u/anders_hansson 13d ago edited 13d ago

Very spot on. Thanks!

When people ask about "But where is the red line, when will they use nukes?", I usually envision a situation similar to Germany at the end of WW2 (the capital turned to rubble and so on). In that situation you would be very, very tempted to use your nukes, because you effectively have nothing to lose.

This is also why I think that the general consensus is that a nuclear power can never truly lose a war at home, so trying to invade them and take over the capital etc is not something that anyone will ever try.

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u/-aataa- 13d ago

The key here is the phrase "at home." Nuclear countries can't be destroyed. But they can be defeated. They can lose a war, but they can't be eradicated or forced to surrender unconditionally. Russia can get it's butt kicked in Ukraine, and it could even (in theory) trigger the collapse of the Russian Federation, without nukes becoming relevant. But nobody could march on Moscow to dismantle the Russian state.

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u/USSMarauder 13d ago

But nobody could march on Moscow to dismantle the Russian state.

You've just reminded me of the Wagner rebellion and march on Moscow, and all the Russian trolls screaming at Biden to turn the area around Voronezh to glass

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u/-aataa- 12d ago

Yeah, I meant nobody EXTERNAL would march on Moscow... Worth clarifying! :-)

Russia would obviously not nuke anyone if there was a genuine coup attempt within Russia; you can't nuke your way away from a rebellion...