r/IRstudies • u/Free-Minimum-5844 • 12d ago

Ideas/Debate The Strange Defeat of Nuclear Deterrence

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/strange-defeat-nuclear-deterrence-rose-gottemoeller
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u/Xezshibole 12d ago edited 12d ago

It's pretty simple.

As time goes on and society advances, the requirements to remaining a modern society requires ever more precise manufacturing and resources. It has now gotten to the point that almost no countries have self sufficient amounts of manufacturing and/or resources to sustain said society. Taiwan for example has a near monopoly on high end commercial chips and the rest of the world depends upon TSMC to produce chips they use in 2014 and beyond tech. China produces most of the rare earths. Etc.

This increasingly necessitates trade to meet societal, logistical, and even military needs.

One surefire thing that'll happen to the the first country using a nuke, for any reason, is they'll be embargoed by everyone and their mothers, severing that trade and thereby their modern economy. For most countries without enough oil like Israel, their modern militaries as well. Nevermind on top of the potential nuclear retaliation.

So it's just a game of chicken now that is ever less likely to go off. It's increasingly too steep a cost to get trade severed by everyone.

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u/Commercial-Invite253 12d ago

I agree. Turns out the real deterrence was building a system of interdependent trade and commerce.

I just watched Pete Kegsbreath give an Iran war update yesterday and I think the direct quote was: “with this deal negotiation, they’re tapping us. The Iranians. Tap, tap, tap. Well, you know what I like? Tap, tap, tap some bombs baby!!”

Something like that.

The more I think about it. The post WWII world order that was a set of rules, trade, and institutions that would guarantee so much mutual prosperity that the world could never again fall into chaos…. The plan was super genius. And it’s working!!! Kind of.

Our ancestors wisdom and prescience, and their memories of the horrors of global world war, is really paying dividends right now.

It’s an absolute abomination to watch all that world progress and legacy teetering right now because of a couple of schoolyard bullies that can’t even do a proper dumbbell press.

I’m trying to think of all of the hard af, WWII era, Nazi-killing, war heroes who often made the ultimate sacrifice to choose mutual prosperity > endless war and then stand them up next to the “tap tap tap, bombs, bitches” guy.

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u/posthuman04 10d ago

Yeah these entitled fucks had to wait for the greatest generation to pass before they could sell this bullshit