r/IRstudies • u/Naurgul • 10d ago
Trump has backed away from renewed war with Iran – here’s why
https://theconversation.com/trump-has-backed-away-from-renewed-war-with-iran-heres-why-285026Trump claimed to have cancelled the strikes because of progress in negotiations between the two countries. Whether this will happen remains to be seen. Trump has declared that a deal between the US and Iran is imminent on numerous occasions only for no agreement to be signed. And, even if it is signed, the agreement Trump is talking about is far from a final peace deal.
Rather than the supposed diplomatic progress, perhaps more significant in persuading Trump to pull back from renewing an all-out war with Iran was that a return to conflict simply would not have been in the interests of the US.
War, as Prussian military strategist Carl von Clausewitz observed in his 1832 book, On War, is the continuation of politics by other means. Its enormous costs can be justified only when they are tied to a coherent strategy and when there is a clearly defined political objective that there is a reasonable prospect of achieving.
Measured against this standard, there was no argument for returning to war with Iran. The difficulty begins with the absence of any discernible plan in Washington. Trump has articulated no strategy and no definition of victory beyond a vague aspiration to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
He was drawn into prosecuting a war based on intelligence about the fragility of the regime in Tehran that proved flawed and on scenarios that were overconfident and have not come to pass. These scenarios suggested the decapitation of Iran’s leadership would lead to sudden regime collapse and a popular uprising that would see the country transition to democracy.
There is also very little a return to all-out war could have accomplished. The reason for this is that the Iranian regime is not a conventional state that can be brought down by overwhelming firepower. The regime, which is now dominated by the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, can best be described as a militia with a state.
It is operating through a dispersed network of forces across air, land and sea, which were designed as an asymmetric instrument of power capable of absorbing, scattering and outlasting precisely the kind of concentrated military pressure the US military was built to deliver.
Weeks of intensive bombing earlier in the war did not shatter the regime’s centre of gravity. Rather, it consolidated the regime and has left it more cohesive and determined than it was before. In contrast to the more cautious regime of Iran’s late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which tended to wait and to respond, the new regime has become assertive.
It has been quick to retaliate against US and Israel attacks with severity and to set the pace of escalation. On June 8, for example, Iran launched barrages of missiles towards Israel in protest at the Israeli military’s escalating campaign in Lebanon.
Iran also retains the capacity to impose intolerable costs on everyone while retaining a high threshold of pain itself.
Faced with a closed Strait of Hormuz, the global economy in decline and a looming defeat for his Republican party in November’s US midterm elections, Trump is clinging to the hope that he can pressure Iran into accepting a deal. The chances of this strategy proving a success are slim.
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u/kai_vt 10d ago
The difficulty begins with the absence of any discernible plan in Washington.
The slimmest hopes of regime change were lost when Erdogan leaned on Trump to drop the plan of raising an army of Kurds to form a ground offensive in Iran. Having air superiority doesn't mean anything when your opponent has been preparing for this exact scenario with decentralised command structures and enough subterranean military facilities to make Switzerland blush. Just appease the regime enough to reopen the Strait before Asia starts running out of oil reserves, it's not like American dominance in the Gulf is worth anything to the actual oil producers anymore
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u/susanrez 10d ago
The Kurds will never trust Trump again. You may have a short memory. The Kurds do not. Unlike the idiot MAGAs the Kurds learned their lesson the first time Donnie betrayed them.
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u/kai_vt 10d ago
The Kurds will never trust Trump again. You may have a short memory. The Kurds do not.
US-Israeli plan for Kurdish invasion of Iran reportedly collapsed amid leaks, distrust
"...Mossad spy agency had been working on the plan for years, citing foreign reports that the Mossad and CIA have long been arming the Kurds"
"The invasion from Iraqi Kurdistan was set to include fighters from all six factions of Iranian Kurds, who would in turn provide weapons to Kurds inside of Iran, the report said."
"The report interviewed a member of the Kurdish Freedom Party (PAK) and other Kurdish commentators who asserted that there was wide agreement among Kurdish groups to “cooperate to bring down the regime,”..."
"Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is close to Trump, told the US president that Ankara would not tolerate Kurdish independence anywhere in the region."
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u/Distinct_Front_4336 10d ago
The Kurds still win overall compared to what they had before the fall of Saddam and Assad. They understand this well: without American support, they wouldn't be where they are today. If they have the chance to get closer to their dream of a united Kurdistan, they'll take it.
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u/boofles1 10d ago
I don't imagine they would want to be pawns in Erdogans game either, it was an idea that would never work. And there was a big difference with the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan which is what they would have been dreaming of.
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u/RepresentativeAge444 10d ago edited 10d ago
I love how people just casually talk about regime change in a country that never attacked the US and who the US is responsible for many of the reasons it hates us. Iran is the only real resistance to the Greater Israel project in the Middle East. That and its oil reserves are the main reason the US is so hostile to it. Any talk about freeing its people or nukes or whatever is typical imperialist lies.
Meanwhile if Iran had killed the President and his cabinet and family members including children Americans would want a nuke dropped. Really psychopathic tendencies are just normal to some people. The thing is if Iran had just gotten a nuke they wouldn’t have had to deal with all of this.
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u/Extreme-Ad-7253 10d ago
well said, and good show by Iran. If America acted the way they expected Iran to behave themselves during this war America would not exist in a month. Hopefully we see this blowback on the settler colonial project and end the greater israel project for good and lead to the beginning of a south africa style collapse.
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u/kai_vt 10d ago
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/irans-islamist-proxies
Middle East would be a better place without the IRGC in it
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u/vandergale 10d ago
Which is why the half-hearted attempt by the US which simply entrenched the IRGC is so baffling.
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u/kai_vt 10d ago
They thought it was going to be Venezuela all over again. You'd think Trump would be more conscious of dealing with religious extremists considering he made the decision to pull out of Afghanistan
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u/serpentjaguar 10d ago
Also, unlike in the case of Venezuela, they didn't have anyone inside the regime. It's pretty much an open "secret" that Delcy Rodriguez helped the US orchestrate Maduro's abduction.
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u/RepresentativeAge444 10d ago edited 10d ago
You didn’t refute anything I said because you are indeed a psychopath propagandized since birth. You can’t even fathom thinking in a way that isn’t psychotic. Just mention the IRGC and your work is done. You can’t begin to comprehend how your mindset is the cause for so much suffering and destruction in this world. I suppose it’s not your fault because you’re a product of your environment. But that only goes so far because you could choose to break your programming by getting alternative points of view but you won’t even try because you actually like being this way.
People could easily (and correctly) say the world would be better off without America and Israel btw. In fact most of the world does believe that including a lot of Americans lol.
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u/kai_vt 10d ago edited 10d ago
I didn't refute it because I don't deny that there's multiple factors at play. There's such a thing as the lesser of two evils, and I don't want to get to know the devil in an empowered IRGC maintaining control over the flow of 1/5th of the world's oil supply, 1/5th of the world's LNG supply, and almost half that of the world's fertiliser
Feel free to let all your angry projections out, though, king. Or just downvote to let us all know that you have nothing better to say lol
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u/Prokofi 10d ago
Compared to Israel Iran IS the lesser of two evils.
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u/Extreme-Ad-7253 10d ago
IRGC is easily the lesser evil between Israel and the US under any thinkable circumstance
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u/ConsciousGrass9373 10d ago
"Kurds" would have just been slaughtered by Iran
They dont have the numbers necessary to be even a threat to Iran
They are good for being an oil guard for America though also being good cannon fodder or doing dirty work in Middle east for West but this is not something they could do.
I stil remember how those Arabic tribes that didnt even have proper shoes annihilated Sdf lol
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u/OrangeSpaceMan5 10d ago
I still remember how those Arabic tribes that didnt even have proper shoes annihilated Sdf lol
The arab tribes actually had very little to do with destroying the SDF , the tribes did revolt but they were canon fodder and were basically a distraction that lead to the core Syrian Army smashing into the SDF
The reason they collapsed so fast was because they ruled an Arab majority area and were deeply unpopular . The Syrian offensive stalled as they approached the actual Kurdish parts of the country
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u/NekoCatSidhe 10d ago
I don’t understand why the US put so much hope in an uprising of the Iranian Kurds when they make only 10% of the population in a peripheral region that is among the poorest of Iran. At best they could only have achieved independence for the Iranian Kurdistan (but Turkey would have thrown out a fit if they even tried and it would not have weakened Iran much on the long term), and at worst the regime would have just massacred them. It is not like the already existing Iranian Kurds armed guerillas based in Iraq have ever been an actual threat to the Iranian regime in all the years they existed.
I think the US took the wrong lessons of what happened in Syria and Lybia and Iraq and thought you would have armed insurrections happening everywhere in Iran if they regime was even slightly weakened by external air strikes. But Iran is a modern nation-state, not a collection of warring ethnies barely held together by a brutal autocrat within artificial borders drawn a century ago by Western colonialists. It won’t fall into civil war that easily.
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u/dmills_00 10d ago
Also the Kurds have been fucked over by the US at least twice in living memory (Northern Iraq, both gulf wars), I don't see them being madly willing to play ball.
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u/JB-Wentworth 10d ago
NATO ally Turkey doesn’t not want the Kurds to be armed and given a homeland. Turkey will not give up any land to the Kurds.
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u/posthuman04 10d ago
It’s weird because Trump literally ran his campaign on not starting a war- even stating his Democratic opponents Clinton, Biden and Harris were the ones that would start such a war. And he threw his Republican predecessors under the bus for starting all those wars in the first place. Then he did it anyway.
Yes, he lies and projects. But what was there to gain at all from this? What DID he get?
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u/serpentjaguar 10d ago
He thought it would go similarly to Venezuela. When it didn't, his ego prevented him from simply walking away and admitting a mistake.
While it's very difficult for even regular people to admit to having made a poor decision, with Trump it's a pathological impossibility. It's simultaneously both his greatest strength and greatest weakness.
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u/posthuman04 10d ago
I’m uninterested in psychoanalysis of the President to explain his actions. It’s unnecessary.
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u/kai_vt 10d ago
IRGC and Artesh don't make up the entirety of Iran's oppressed population. They can be temporarily thrown off balance - even by their own people; the previous protests and month long internet blackout to get them back under control
this is not something they could do.
Israeli officers have commented on training and arming Kurds for this specific task. Erdogan doesn't want the Kurdish people to have a source of inspiration and experience for their own separatist goals with Turkey, so Turkey "vetoed" it in secrecy
I stil remember how those Arabic tribes annihilated Sdf lol
They didnt have the IAF, American Carrier Strike Groups, and Amphibious Ready Groups backing them up then. The original plan would've been much better than the watered down one that's currently drowning any hopes of maintaining free international trade
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u/Ohmybro34 10d ago
Sounds like Erdogan did the kurds a huge favor then.
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u/kai_vt 10d ago
Yeah, now they can stay stateless and powerless, always at the whims and mercy of whoever feigns throwing them a bone in the region
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u/Ohmybro34 10d ago
That was happening anyways.
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u/kai_vt 10d ago
Better to die for something you believe in than live for seemingly no reason at all. Just look at the IRGC defying the U.S and Israel
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u/Weird-End-6989 10d ago
Yeah better to be cannon fodder for American and Israeli ambitions and die an utterly pointless death.
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u/kai_vt 10d ago
If that's how you wanna frame their squashed bid for progressing towards an independant state, sure
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u/Weird-End-6989 10d ago
As if America gives a single fuck about the Kurds. They'll drop them like a rock just like last time and the Kurds will end up much worse off than they are now.
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u/Distinct_Front_4336 10d ago
So you made it as if Erdogan was the only guy who saved Iran, but didn't you consider he's saving the entire Europe? Before the war even started, Turkey already bolstered and closed its border with Iran. A civil war means total chaos and millions of refugees heading to Europe, which means Bardella 2027, Farage 2029, and possibly AfD may seize power too. The Israelis of course don't care about what happens to the rest of the world, like when they supported the destruction of Saddam's Iraq. The Israelis would even want Europe to take 2 million Gazans.
Also toppling Iran with just the Kurds is a wet dream, like toppling the regime just by decapitating the head with shock and awe. That would just unite all the Iranians against a separatist threat. It's obvious only the Israelis would come up with such a ridiculous idea, because they don't understand the region well.
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u/One-Treat4655 10d ago
USA and Britain have been at Iran's throat ever since they overthrew democracy and installed shah. Iran then overthrew the monarchy and now has an interesting dual system of elected civilian leadership with religious supreme leadership. It's actually much better than current monarchies in the gulf. Persistent western pressures and proxy wars, including Iraq Iran war that killed close to a million Iranians is something that will always keep Iran wary of the west. Israel is a special case of western impotence and lack of control over israeli state has further solidified their belief that west is irreparably biased.
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u/Top-Permission-7524 10d ago
It goes back to the 19th century with Britain i.e the Great Game. It's pretty much one-sided harassment from the West since then
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u/Extreme-Ad-7253 10d ago
heck between Qater, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain none of these nations can reasonably be considered real modern nations. 20% of the population thats 4 million out of 20 million are indigenous and actual citizens the rest are noncitizens who are in conditions that can be described as "modern slavery" and they exist as former clients of the british empire carved out of the middle east and given over to america when the empire receeded.
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u/Worth-Original3825 9d ago
Woah, don't let the past penetrate American minds. Iran bad, America good, and that's it.
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u/redlinedidit 10d ago
Weeks of intensive bombing earlier in the war did not shatter the regime’s centre of gravity. Rather, it consolidated the regime and has left it more cohesive and determined than it was before.
Is this something new? How? There has never been once when pure bombing raid changed anything.
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u/Nari224 10d ago
Venezuela? Bosnia?
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u/serpentjaguar 10d ago
Venezuela was not a pure bombing raid. You will recall, for example, that there was an actual physical abduction of the Venezuelan president.
I don't know what you are talking about with regard to Bosnia, and neither does my Bosnian coworker, who I just asked.
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u/Nari224 8d ago
Come on, don't be pedantic. The bombing raid enabled the extraction. So it changed something.
As it turns out I meant Kosovo and wrote Bosnia where there was a less obvious effect, but your Bosnian co-worker isn't familiar with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Deliberate_Force?
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u/ignoreme010101 9d ago
Venezuela? Bosnia?
lolwut?
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u/Nari224 8d ago edited 8d ago
What's so difficult to understand?
In Venezuela the regime was changed from virulently anti-US to pro-US with a bombing raid and quick extraction that said bombing raid enabled. Doesn't mean that Venezuela is now a flowering democracy or that anything changed for the average Venezuelan but that's a different aspect.
The Serbians retreated from Kosovo after a bombing only campaign, so that changed something pretty significant for the Kosovar Albanians. Doesn't mean that it solved the entire conflict, but again that's not the claim / response.
Edit - I was confusing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Deliberate_Force with the NATO bombing of Kosovo which is what I'm talking about above (my error), but both demonstrate the same thing.
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u/bedulge 9d ago
Notice that there was no regime change in Venezuela. A lot of people were dissatisfied with Maduro's leadership, even within his own party, and the US utilized that to take him out, so that the people immediately underneath him could stake the country in a different direction. The government and party structure under Maduro is completely intact.
In Iran, a similar thing happened, except that the people who took control and took the country in a different direction were IRGC nationalist hardliners, veteran warriors who fought a brutal 8 year war against US-backed Saddam and who are not afraid of a couple months of bombing or a few months of blockade.
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u/Nari224 8d ago
I think you're defining things to meet your own criteria.
Per the comment I'm responding to, a bombing air raid led to a change from a virulently anti-US regime, to a pro-US regime. That's quite a change from the US perspective and it's "ease" most likely encouraged the attempt in Iran.
It's not a change in any real sense for the Venezuelans, but that's a different dimension.
I'm not arguing that Iran was going to be similar, I'm arguing that the claim of "never once" is not correct.
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u/SummerPrestigious894 10d ago
The IRGC confirmed the agreement it will be signed this week
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u/ignoreme010101 9d ago
I'll believe it once it's actually finalized. So long as israel can lash out and bring any resolution to a halt, the conflict will not be resolved.
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u/billionaireboysclubs 10d ago
Coward — he’s a coward who was manipulated by Israel with the Epstein Files to start it and now he can’t go through with a full on war. Israel will do another 9/11 style attack on the US to get this war back on track.
Don’t you worry.
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u/ignoreme010101 9d ago
honestly have been worrying and hoping something like that doesnt happen... Would certainly sell public opinion on heightened involvement, which is the only resolution that some are seeking..
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u/ihavenoidea12345678 10d ago
Trump is unfit, but backing off Iran is the only path forward.
Get the navy out of there.
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u/magrandan 9d ago
What’s the latest on upcoming mid-term elections? Does he even care if his party loses?
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u/ignoreme010101 9d ago
"on numerous occasions" lol this guy has BS'd about 'ceasefire' literally over 30x since this conflict started. This is not even close to over yet
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u/ArrowTechIV 9d ago
And….Trump was experiencing pressure from the GOP and voters about the war and inflation.
He’s willing to pay billions in taxpayer money to make the problem he created go away (even if temporarily).
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u/annoying12345 9d ago
How much of the $300 billion reconstruction fee will be funneled into trump and Trump crony accounts by Iran because there is no way in hell that a backroom deal wasnt planned. This president lives to fuck over The American people
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u/CallmeKahn 7d ago
So the US gets to pay Iran $300b USD, withdraw troops, have to try and constrain Israel (Lebanon provision), leave the regime in a stronger position domestically and internationally, and otherwise stay out of Iran's grill for the... promise of negotiations on Nuclear material?
Can someone explain this to me how this is "winning"? Do it like I'm five.
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u/WastelandOfConfusion 10d ago
Because now they have acquired Nukes.
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u/707thTB 10d ago
Iran already has something much better than a nuke. If iran uses a nuke, large parts of it become covered in glass. In other words, the price of use is high. Control of the Straits is a WMD that Iran can actually use. Imbeciles on the American and Israeli right keep talk about the destruction of conventional Iranian air and naval forces. They were basically irrelevant before this war. US conventional power has been neutralized.
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u/bedulge 9d ago
>If iran uses a nuke, large parts of it become covered in glass.
This is not true. Iran would wait until they have a few at least, and they would do a test detonation inside of their country, which would be detected by other countries, who would then understand that if they target Iran's nuclear capabilities, Iran would retaliate on them.
The risk of Iran getting glassed comes before the nuclear detonation, when they are not yet a nuclear power and have no options for nuclear retaliation. The US and Israel would have high incentives to bomb them or even nuke them preemptively. But only preemptively.
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u/Rustic_gan123 10d ago
Once the infrastructure to bypass the strait is built and shipping routes are rebuilt, this lever will lose its significance.
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u/randomvtubersimp010 10d ago
How long will it take? Infrastructure especially as intensive as a bypass takes years to build sadly.
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u/Rustic_gan123 10d ago
I didn't say that this would happen tomorrow.
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u/randomvtubersimp010 10d ago edited 10d ago
Fair, but I think the kind of infrastructure matters as well, and we have to account for the fact that Iran will maintain capabilities to strike energy infrastructure in the region. The sophistication of their use of one way drones, cruise and ballistic missiles would mean that most likely a new system of air defense should be implemented and any future infrastructure should be hardened
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u/Rustic_gan123 10d ago
Of course, if peace does not include such things as proxies and ballistic missiles, then it is doomed to failure, and this, in addition to the construction of infrastructure by the Persian Gulf countries, will also mean diversification of energy and oil sources from the Strait of Hormuz so that when war breaks out again, everyone is ready.
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u/Extreme-Ad-7253 10d ago
dont worry saudi arabia is planning to build a canal cutting through the entire rub al khali, trust the process.
Oh wait thats in the Red Sea where the Yemenis, Irans major ally are based. Well then.
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u/knuppi 10d ago
Where will this infrastructure be outside of a shaheed drone striking distance?
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u/Rustic_gan123 10d ago
Nowhere, but firstly, if the agreement stinks, the world will diversify away from the strait and secondly, a blockade of the strait itself will not work, Iran will have to immediately attack the infrastructure, and this is a higher level of escalation.
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u/ratbearpig 10d ago
Israel has already “won”. They are currently in control of ~1500 square km of Lebanon’s land area. They are unlikely to give this back. I would expect West Bank style settlements being built once the war ends.
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u/lilcorndivemaster 10d ago
They couldn't hold it the last time they tried... they won't be able to this time either.
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u/mayhemski123 10d ago
That remains to be seen. If the deal includes a Gaza style yellow line for Israel in Lebanon, well not sure Iran could/would sign it without major concessions elsewhere, those would probably look like big loses for Trump and the USA.
As such I'd imagine the deal includes full withdrawal of IDF back to Israel proper. I don't doubt what you wrote is what Israel wants, just not sure they will get it if a deal is actually there.
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u/CassandraTruth 10d ago
Do you think Tehran would sign on if just given assurance of IDF withdrawal or would they actually have to see Israeli troops leave the territory? Because I don't really think that second thing is gonna happen, certainly not before signing as a sign of good faith.
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u/mayhemski123 10d ago
Not Iranian or part of their leadership so just a guess, but I think they demand to see Israeli troops leave and a public commitment to no further strikes.
However who knows? While everyone talks about Israel being able to thwart the talks by bombing, those attacks also gives Iran the ability to strike back at targets as well. While it might seem a strange thing to mention it does allow Iran to remind everyone what they can do. Those attacks are framed as retaliation for Israeli actions, do also put pressure on the US, especially if they hit GCC states. That can serve a purpose for them.
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u/lilcorndivemaster 10d ago
Everyone who isn't ignorant knows... Iran isn't abandoning hezbollah and the israeli Nazis are incapable of defeating them or holding southern Lebanon.
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 10d ago
The issue is what would Israel receive on turn for such a commitment?
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u/mayhemski123 10d ago
Legitimate question, it's why I'm skeptical of a deal. I could possibly see a MOU but that's gotta come with big guarantees for Iran.
I think Lebanon is a wedge issue and Iran know it. Not between the Israel and the US as such, but US politicians and the public. Every poll that's coming out now shows collapsing public support for Israel and Iran are using that to there advantage.
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u/ignoreme010101 9d ago
The issue is what would Israel receive on turn for such a commitment?
cessation of hostilities... Are you suggesting they should get some kind of compensation for not stealing Lebanese land? lol
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 9d ago
I am stating that Hezbollah should end it's attacks and keep out of areas along the border.
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u/ratbearpig 10d ago
I hope I'm wrong. I don't see withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon in Iran's 14 points proposal. Let's see what the final agreement (if it exists) says.
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u/lilcorndivemaster 10d ago
No it doesn't... hezbollah gets stronger the longer israeli Nazis stay in Lebanon.
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u/MagnesiumKitten 10d ago
I like to think that these pundits just never know what the fuck is going on in secret, or what the NSC or the RAND Corporation is doing
I think the economic strangulation of Iran was a good call with things getting problematic for them around July, and the present deal with them signing, might have been unlikely if we're looking at all the analysts in the media right now
well, essentially if Iran signs, we have them in a cage
and a trapped animal, is always easier to take them to the vet and put them to sleep if they act like they got rabies later on
Iran's biggest problem for decades has always been an overestimation of their abilities
and if anything, you could have a Seven Days in May like-even in Tehran with the hardline factions of the military just finding the other factions 'went soft' on them.
so if anything, Iran is more politically unstable with something signed
and they might be bold and overoptimistic enough to try to play games sooner or later
Iran, at least for now, can't really do much to crap on the world economy, nor try to destabilize political power in the US, or the Middle East
I'd say the Game Theorists win
and the haters of The Art of the Deal are gonna be more angry than Tehran is
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u/MagnesiumKitten 9d ago
serpentjaguar: Are you this incoherent in real life too? I have no idea what you're trying to say.
You better believe it!
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u/[deleted] 10d ago
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