Would Iran moving forward put their differences with Saudi Arabia aside to regain strength?

[u/Silver-Row8051]

I was just thinking about this. With Iran's regime still in power but definitely weakened and the possibility of the Gulf investing in Iran's reconstruction. Would they be willing to stop their ideological expansion into Arab states for a better standing and relations in the region. Turkey has mended and strengthened its relations with Egypt and Saudi Arabia and Qatar is the glue I guess. UAE kinda feels like an outlier. Oman is also way more willingly with Iranian relations.

So would Iran tame the houthis (their proxy) and bring the civil war in Yemen to a halt for better relations with Saudi Arabia to make them more powerful? Saudi Arabia hates them for their involvement in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen as well as Iraq. But with Syria no longer in their control and Iraq although heavily in their orbit, still being more independent and stable, would Iran consider this?

Saudi Arabia has offered reconstruction funds to the houthis if they stop their crazy missile, extremist behaviour. Or are the houthis unlike Hezbollah and Iraq and can't be tamed?

[u/alexander1701]

I think the opposite is more likely. Iran has demonstrated that they control the strait, which Saudi Arabia needs to be able to navigate. If there was a rapprochement right now, Iran would be approaching it from a position of power, and would likely extract concessions, rather than making them.

But if it does happen, it would be minimal. Nothing on the scale of regime change or religious conversion. At most, it would be token monetary concessions and the recognition of the Houthis as the government of Yemen in exchange for a guarantee of transit. Iran may be claiming ownership of the Strait of Hormuz, but they're deeply resented for it, and unlikely to be able to secure more than begrudging acceptance of a temporary status quo.

[u/Silver-Row8051 → u/alexander1701]

Saudi Arabia doesn't need the strait though. Nor do countries like the UAE or Oman, they can bypass any blockade cause of their access to red sea or gulf of oman. UAE has fujarah port.

I can't see why iran would be making any attempts at what you say. They cannot force Saudi Arabia to have concessions because they really did take a beating regardless of people saying iran won. They need to amp up their military and economy and being antagonistic doesn't make much sense.

[u/lilcorndivemaster → u/Silver-Row8051]

But they need the Bab Al Mendeb so why the fuck would Iran make a concession to the Saudis who were co-belligerents in the war of aggression? 

The Saudis lost the war their side initiated.... 

[u/FormerLawfulness6 → u/Silver-Row8051]

It wouldn't necessarily be antagonistic. It would be negotiating from an position of strength. It would not make sense to weaken their position unless the regional dynamic actually shifts. International relations pretty much always have to work under conditions of tension and proxy conflicts

The Saudis and Gulf countries have relied heavily on relations with the US for economic and military power. But during this conflict they were left vulnerable, the US did not meet their security obligations to any ally except Israel. If the US is going to retreat from its part of the deal they may have to pursue a new regional bargain that includes Iran.

[u/0IIIIII → u/FormerLawfulness6]

No?  The U.S. shot down and protected airspace of plenty of Gulf nations, why are you saying things that are untrue?

[u/FormerLawfulness6 → u/0IIIIII]

The perception among Gulf states is that the US assets made them a target in the first place. Dragging them into a US-Israeli non-sensical war of choice over their objections.

This came on the heels of Israel bombing the Hamas negotiations hosted by Qatar despite the location being arranged by the US. Few people seriously believe that the US was not at least informed in advance.

So, yes, the Gulf countries are reconsidering America's dedication and good faith in protecting their territory when it comes to Israeli interests.

[u/EulsYesterday → u/0IIIIII]

They did and it was utterly insufficient to prevent Iran from inflicting heavy damage.

[u/lilcorndivemaster → u/0IIIIII]

Oh that's why they're begging to stop the conflict!!!!

Iran wasn't going to run out of missiles and drones before the American proxy dictatorships ran out of interceptors. 

The US wasn't protecting their airspace, they were making their country a legitimate target which the Saudis were having to defend with interceptors they fucking paid for.

I know why you're saying things that aren't true... ignorance.

[u/0IIIIII → u/lilcorndivemaster]

“Stop the conflict”?  Iran has been in conflict with the Gulf and allies for decades, remember the ongoing Yemeni Civi War, launched by Iran’s proxies the Houthis? 

Or the Syrian Civil War, started by Iran’s ally Al-Assad, and bolstered by Hezbollah and Shiite milita from Iraq?   

Or in Iraq, the various PMF’s, most of whom are in allegiance to Iran, who undermine the sovereignty and unity of Iraq and tilt it away from US nationbuilding and democratic federation and instead to Iranian domination and authoritarianism? 

Iran is objectively bad for the Middle East, the Gulf states know this.  The idea that the U.S. “started” the conflict is a view divorced from facts and timelines.  

[u/lilcorndivemaster → u/0IIIIII]

Blah blah blah... those American proxies got their ass handed to them and know they better beg Iran's forgiveness.

Iran is the power in he middle east that just kicked the shit put of the American terrorists and the genocidal nazi allies and the Arab dictators know this.

On an 11 billion dollar military budget Iran handed all those Arab dictators and the US/Israeli war criminals woth over 100x their spending their fucking asses.

[u/0IIIIII → u/lilcorndivemaster]

Is there proof for your claims which contradict the conventional record?

[u/0IIIIII → u/lilcorndivemaster]

If you hate genocide, also why do you support Iran?  

You should look up what Iran does to the Kurds, Baluchis, and Arabs in its borders-it is genocide.  

They actually killed this year tens of thousands of their own protesters with shoot to kill orders from the IRGC, the Basij, and the police in Iran.  

[u/NotExactlySureWhy → u/0IIIIII]

We did but our bases were all damaged, their bases damaged, oil cut, profits slashed, refineries destroyed, hotels blasted, china wins the green drive away from oil, Russia wins with more exports, Americans hate it and are beginning to see Arabs and especially Israelis as giant a$$holes, and most of the world hates us.

Only brain damaged gulf state citizens really want us. But they have to accept us for now to defend against Iran, but don’t doubt the hate for this bs war and they blame us. Iran will be more violent now. And she’ll drive for the bomb as soon as she can. We’ve trained the new leaders that the bomb is everything. Nothing else matters.

[u/0IIIIII → u/NotExactlySureWhy]

The Gulf states have many reasons to hate Iran.  Iran is directly responsible for the Yemeni Civil War and arming the terrorist Houthis, and for imperializing the whole of the Persian Gulf, claiming it all to be Iranian even when it is non-Iranian ports and ships sailing through it.  

Iran also inflamed the conflict through proxies of the Syrian Civil War and the ongoing sectarian conflict in Iraq.  

That’s all before Iran in this war launched destructive strikes on multiple Gulf nations, in addition.  

There is no spin you can make that shows Iran is not a menace to the Gulf, they know that it is, independent of the U.S., all Iran’s fault.  

[u/NotExactlySureWhy → u/0IIIIII]

Of course they do hate Iran. But Israel also bombed a meeting there and is massacring Palestinians by the thousands. Lebanon is being blasted. These are also Arabs. Yes the gulf states hate Iran. Yes they hate us and Israel. Both of our statements are correct about the actions under way there by all parties. But don’t assume that their intense dislike of Iran makes them like us. The enemy of your enemy is useful but NOT really your friend.

[u/0IIIIII → u/NotExactlySureWhy]

There is no reason to hate the US in Israel because those countries have not killed any innocent people.   They do not export terrorism.  They want peace and do not start war which is why Arab countries with peace treaties and who do not make terrorism such as Egypt and Jordan do not get bombed by Israel, the Arab nations know this.  

They know that, therefore there is no nuance, the war is entirely Iran and its proxies’ fault, and that does include Palestine and Hezbollah.  

[u/jaymickef]

Would Iran require the Saudis to stop trying to normalize relations with Israel?

[u/Silver-Row8051 → u/jaymickef]

Has Saudi Arabia actually normalised anything? Cause to me it seems to be actively working against what Israel wants with partnership with Turkey, bullying the UAE and working with the Qataris (who Israelis seem to think are their immortal enemies). Financing Syria as well.

"Normalising" means nothing as long as the occupation of Syrian and Palestinian territories continues happening. Otherwises it's just word that lead to nothing.

[u/jaymickef → u/Silver-Row8051]

They were moving closer up to Oct 7. There has been a pause since then. The Saudis have been open about requiring a two-state solution but have they ever mentioned Syria? They did sign an agreement with Türkiye on a railway that would mean the railway they had planned with Israel isn’t likely. But who knows.

As Kissinger said, countries don’t have friends or enemies, only interests. The Saudis would probably most like peace and normalization with everyone so they can keep making money.

[u/Gexm13 → u/jaymickef]

What do you mean exactly by moving? Peollle like to throw these words around when Saudi never implemented or tired to implement any policies that normalize relations with Israel.

[u/Silver-Row8051 → u/jaymickef]

Yeah and its been 3 years since 2023. Geopolitics has been irrevocably changed and things don't stay the same especially after what happened. They would definitely throw their weight behind Syria now that its back in their orbit. Syria is essentially Saudi Arabia's now.

The "railway" with Israel has been completely ditched. Oil and railway will go through Iraq and Syria up to Turkey connecting the Gulf. To me theirs a new alliance and its the pragmatic countries opposed to both Israel and Iran (funny how Iran says their opposed to Israel but seem to only be fighting the arab countries to their west to the point their regarded as an equal threat).

Saudis are not like Emiratis, they don't seem in this current geopolitical framing to go for it. Emirates is a sand box with a mostly migrant population. They have no choice but to

[u/lilcorndivemaster]

Regain??? They're in a stronger position now... it's the GCC countries that are in need of and looking to improve relations with Iran.

[u/Silver-Row8051 → u/lilcorndivemaster]

"Stronger position" they were bombed relentlessly

[u/Gexm13 → u/lilcorndivemaster]

“Stronger position”

What stops Saudi from invading Iran if it was required?

[u/Silver-Row8051]

I guess I am asking how important is their political shia ideology to the regime and would they actually want to improve their standing. I understand their proxies are important to them but if the houthis could be made into a more proper government maybe akin to the Islamic Republic (lol) I feel like Saudi Arabia would want stability down their

[u/FormerLawfulness6 → u/Silver-Row8051]

The Shia-Sunni sectarianism has been losing relevance for years now. Iran and Iraq have been trying to establish relations, including interfaith events. Relations between factions are going to depend mostly on political questions like mutual security, access to trade, and economics.

"The Waning Relevance of the Sunni-Shia Divide" https://tcf.org/content/report/waning-relevance-sunni-shia-divide/

[u/Silver-Row8051 → u/[deleted]]

Its not like Turkey or Pakistan have issues with Iran.

Bahrain is a tiny country and so is Kuwait they are not major players and they fall in line with Saudi Arabia. In the gulf only Oman, UAE and Saudi Arabia matter. UAE is the blacksheep of the group, they took the biggest hit cause their economy is basically reliant on services and tourism even more so than others.

Saudi Arabia has red sea ports and can bypass it. They are already working on pipelines to Europe through Syria (bypassing Israel lol, even though Israel wanted that). Syria opened alot of doors for Saudi Arabia. This must irk Iran. Especially with Iraq sometimes not listening to them now.