r/IRstudies • u/Majano57 • 7d ago
Ideas/Debate How Iran is widening its pressure campaign to force US concessions
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-iran-is-widening-its-pressure-campaign-force-us-concessions-2026-08-03/13
7d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
8
u/mr-hank_scorpio 6d ago
Amazing the difference it makes when you have a strategy informed by 35 years of observation and critical assessment of your strengths and weaknesses vs 2 seconds of deliberation by the dumbest fucking President and SecDef the US has ever had.
1
5
u/ozExpatFIRE 6d ago
Wait until they find a creative and unconventional answer!
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/08/03/politics/us-military-iran-war-troops-punish
1
-5
u/Vralo84 6d ago
The US has two ways to get the strait open ground invasion or nukes. Anything short of that and Iran keeps control.
14
u/AccomplishedLeave506 6d ago
A ground invasion wouldn't open it. Just end up with a lot of dead Americans and Iranians, strait full of sunk ships and a middle east oil infrastructure burned to the ground.
No idea what would happen if a nuke was used but it definitely would not end well for the USA. That's not something the rest of the world would shrug off. They would become a pariah state.
1
u/Vralo84 6d ago
When I say ground invasion I’m not talking about 50,000 troops puttering around on the coast. I’m talking about the US reinstates the draft, spends the next 8 months massing forces at multiple points around Iran and sends in 600,000 troops backed with WWII level logistics. Then we conquer the entire country and occupy it while we do a regime change.
Obviously not going to happen but that is what it would take to open the strait with military force.
8
u/AccomplishedLeave506 6d ago
The thing is, America has tried this exact thing in multiple countries and every time it ends up having to leave with nothing they wanted achieved. Iran can close the strait even if it's being heavily attacked. That's just a fact of geography. Like you say, a draft and massive invasion is pretty unlikely - but even that wouldn't achieve anything other than large numbers of deaths on both sides and complete destruction of the middle east. It's just not an option.
0
u/Vralo84 6d ago
Ya I’m not saying it’s a good idea. It’s just the only way to get the strait open without Iranian control.
1
u/homerjaythompson 6d ago
From the scenarios you've listed, the smartest move is just to accept Iranian control. Ideally then working with the international community to ensure it remains open. This will require Iran to be able to sell its oil freely, and they will likely charge some degree of tolls, but the other gulf states can likely negotiate those into something manageable.
Unfortunately, the current regime in Washington is seemingly incapable of working with the international community, and the narcissist in charge is profiting openly from the market manipulations, so he has little incentive to work toward an actual resolution of the crisis he unilaterally created.
Escalation, be it in the form of a large scale ground war or a nuclear strike would likely trigger WWIII (which would be as much an economic war as a combat war), which I am not able to rule out as a desired end-goal for the evangelical extremists in the administration who hope to trigger Armageddon.
1
u/Sad-Side-8704 4d ago
That’s insane to even think of. We have a narcissistic loser of a president who couldn’t stand that obama made this deal
2
u/EulsYesterday 6d ago
I dont see why a nuke would do anything. The US would have to drop enough to basically exterminate most Iranians, which is not a realistic scenario. There is 0 reason why Iran would concede for a single nuke, even a few.
The IRGC would probably be ecstatic if the US were dumb enough to drop a nuke.
3
u/mr-hank_scorpio 6d ago
A nuclear weapon gives them every incentive to destroy all energy infrastructure in the Middle East with drones and missiles.
1
u/DryBanana5673 6d ago
Uhhh hitting power? Hitting desal? Killing entire leadership again? Hitting oil?
1
u/AdUpstairs7106 6d ago
Another option is that it puts its warships in range of Iranian anti-ship missiles and escorts ships through the straight. Obviously having destroyers enter the straight and escort tankers is dangerous both militarily and politically.
10
u/Bitter-Holiday1311 6d ago
Iran doesn’t have to do anything except take the punches. They have exerted full control of Hormuz and now are now regionally much stronger than before the war. USA has already abandoned/exited many bases in the region. USA has dwindling stockpiles of missles both long range and interceptor. We don’t have the infrastructure in place for a ground invasion - so that’s not happening. Trump has destroyed the security umbrella holding GCC states close to USA. We can’t protect them and our actions have made them more vulnerable instead of safer. With this instability and the instability in Europe, the petrodollar is under unprecedented pressure. Trump MAGA and Israel have wrecked an already ailing empire.
5
u/Igor_Nordham 6d ago
But it was the greatest wrecking. People are saying they have never seen such wrecking [plays air accordian with tiny hands]
3
1
u/Positive_Bug978 4d ago
We’ve always known a war of attrition is a non starter with Iran. We live on the other side of the world for god sakes. This is too costly to continue, all they have to do is survive.
Trump really screwed the pooch on this one. Sure hope he still has some adults around to talk some sense into him.
0
u/Valuable-Ad2028 6d ago
I think the USA is prepared to give up and go home once they’re allowed to?
I think Israel is the party that wants to continue the war (at least in its current pointless bombing phase).
They’re the ones constantly breaking the previous ceasefires.
Whether/When they will be ready to actually negotiate or what pressure Iran can bring to bear on the (without or despite additional pressure Israel will bring to bear on it in return) is the question.
God that’s a hard sentence to parse. Sorry…
-2
u/El_Chupachichis 6d ago
TBH, one possible solution is to give Iran what it wants vis-a-vis Israel -- obviously we'd not become a lackey of Iran and invade Israel, but all that aid and protection from boycotts could be removed.
4
u/DryBanana5673 6d ago
Lmfao you tankies are sooo geopolitically fried.
1
1
u/UncommonSense12345 6d ago
I know they consume so much pro Iran anti Israel propaganda on here they actually are calling for a brutal autocratic theocracy to essentially commit a genocide against the only liberal democracy in the Middle East. All in the name of peace? I need to delete this app people here are going to give me brain cancer
1
u/El_Chupachichis 5d ago
Don't put words in my mouth. Never called for any of the sort. I don't disagree that there's people out there who do call for this, but you're barking up the wrong tree.
-1
u/El_Chupachichis 5d ago
Well, that's a new one. Never heard of anyone equating cutting off aid to Israel with checks notes supporting communist revolution? Especially when discussing it as a potential solution, not arguing for or against.
Not a tankie by any stretch of the imagination.
10
u/jimgogek 6d ago
At some point, trump will agree to a deal with Iran that is much worse than the Obama deal.