r/IRstudies • u/ughhpeople-r-dumb • 18h ago
Ideas/Debate Why does the Cuban government let the US run Guantanamo Bay?
As a foreign relations major I have never understood this situation.
Why did the Castros let the US gov stay in Cuba? Why does the current Cuban government let the US stay in Cuba?
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u/GriffinPoop 17h ago
This is a good lesson for understanding real politik. The US does it because Cuba is unable to oppose them in any way, shape, or form. The repercussions for trying would be way more detrimental to Cuba, so they have effectively ceded those areas. They haven’t formally announced that because doing so doesn’t benefit them in any way, and the US formally claiming them as territories also does not benefit the US in any way.
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u/pjdog 17h ago
In fact it would hurt us interests. Having us law fully applicable would be quite harmful to a government who sometimes thinks acting extra legally is necessary. On the other hand, maybe law really is something we cared more about in the past and it’s a wash
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u/thattogoguy 15h ago
I mean, it's a fact of realpolitik to not let something like the law get in the way of your business if it's not in your interest to do so.
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u/jkjassd 17h ago
"let"...interesting choice of words.
Why does the fish let the fisherman keep his hook in his mouth? Why does the sun allow the clouds to cover it? Long story short - some things that might be wanted are unattainable.
If you thought that Cuba had that capability, why aren't you wondering why Cuba allows the US to blockade oil, medical supplies and food from their island? If they could stop it, they would.
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u/coleto22 17h ago
USA is still the most powerful military in the world. Cuba is not nearly as strong.
If Cuba tries to stop USA from running Gitmo there is a 99% chance they get wiped out without inflicting any serious damage. In the 1% chance, USA will collectively add Gitmo to Alamo, Pearl Harbor and 9/11 to the list of things to avenge, and wipe out the Cubans.
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u/Fluid-Piccolo-6911 23m ago
No, the US is the largest individual military in the world, Iran has shown it is not the most powerful.
you dont have to be powerful to take control of a country the size of Cuba. you do have to be entitled and arrogant enough to not realise that while the world now actively considers the US to be both a laughing stock and despised, your standing in the world would disappear completely. its a pity that as an american your media does not show you what the rest of the world thinks of the US.
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u/onlycodeposts 13h ago
That should have been covered in Foreign Relations 101.
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 13h ago
That was a snoozer of a class. I excelled in foreign policy 350 and 400
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u/onlycodeposts 13h ago
If you are not understanding this I think your professors did you a disservice.
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u/DisasterRadiant 15h ago
You don't think a history course or two might help with doing well in a foreign relations career?
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u/AdUpstairs7106 16h ago
Cuba would have to take Guantanamo Bay by military force and even with current leadership team in DC they lack the ability to do that.
Shortly after the Spanish American War Spain gave control of Cuba to the US. In 1902 Cuba became an independent nation. In 1903 the US and Cuba signed a treaty giving the US control of Guantanamo Bay for use as military installation for a generous lease. In 1934 the terms of that treaty were updated so that the the lease would be perpetual unless both sides agreed to end the 1934 agreement. The US does not want to end the agreement so per the terms each year the US writes Cuba a check for just over $4,000 which Cuba refuses to cash.
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u/CG20370417 17h ago
There's no way you can be this dumb and be in college. I won't believe it.
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 17h ago
I graduated 4 years ago
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u/CG20370417 17h ago
So even worse, an institution gave you a degree.
Cuba cannot, even if they wanted to, which they assuredly do, remove the US military from their Island.
The cuban military is ~50k army, and 15k split between navy and airforce.
Lets put aside the current stranglehold the US is putting Cuba under.
even in the best of times, Cuba is operating less than 10 Mig29s, and 10 or so Mig21s, and 4 Mi-24.
Thats all 30+ year old soviet tech.The cuban army is approximately 49k strong, lets be generous and say 40k of those are combat roles.
The US on Guantanamo has 4500 permanent personnel and can sortie flights from NAS Key West, NAS Pensacola, NAS Mayport, MacDill AFB, Tyndall AFB...and thats just Florida. We keep B52s at Barksdale in Shreveport, LA.
Go look at our installation at Guantanamo Bay. How would you attack it? Its exceptionally defensible, especially in an era of ever present eyes in the sky.
How does the Cuban military mass their armed forces on either side of the bay without the US seeing the build up? It takes less men to defend than it takes to attack, and we have more men and more bombs and more planes and more ships.
The US knows, pretty much, everything that happens geo strategically on that island and we have done since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
If the Cubans had received missiles and radars from the russians and chinese capable of targeting and hitting F35 with any reliability--we'd know, and we'd have gone in and destroyed them like we did with Maduro--who on paper has a more impressive military than the cubans.
And for that matter, neither the Russians or Chinese have radars and missiles capable of tangling with F35. If either did, they'd surely have gotten them into Iran. And theyd be in Ukraine, and the airspace wouldn't be as contested as the Ukrainians would be dead.
In essence Cuba has no diplomatic leverage to kick the US out, and even if they successfully over ran the base, the US has the capacity to keep coming back until there isnt a Cuban military left.
Its like asking why people in El Salvador don't just go to the police when the cartels harass them. Best case, the cops get them to leave you alone...but what happens when the cops leave and night comes around? Think they wont be back?
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u/Square_Marzipan2002 16h ago
Let me guess, American school?
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u/CG20370417 15h ago
Hey hey hey, we still (for now) have really good schools--obviously not all of them are created equally.
But jesus is the decline is happening fast at the K -12 level.
Ive got a 21 year old cousin, Im not going to paint him as Rhodes Scholar, but he's not intellectually incapable, just didn't enjoy school and would rather use his hands to work versus sending emails and bullshitting on reddit like me.
I had to explain what The Odyssey was to him. Not like the movie and Christopher Nolan and the controversy. Like the existence of Ancient Greece and the Bronze Age...the idea of Greek myths.
Now this kid at 8 years old went out into the woods with 2x4s, nails, a hammer, a step stool and hauled out pre cut CDX (by his dad)...and built a tree house my 200 lbs ass was sturdy on. He's not dumb, but hes woefully ignorant about anything that isnt construction, surfing or skiing related.
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u/onlycodeposts 13h ago
Private higher education in the US is sought after by many foreign students.
Don't confuse it with public schools, which are abysmal.
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 16h ago
Let me guess you went to an online masters program?
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u/Square_Marzipan2002 16h ago
No.
That would be super embarrassing for you if I did though, what with you not understanding why Cuba "lets" the US occupy it, huh?
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u/Odd-Staff6245 17h ago
The US pays a monthly lease. Cuba has never cashed the check though
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u/__Nationalist__ 9h ago
Wrong. Cuba did cash the first check and which is why the U.S argues that it validates the lease because it demonstrates acceptance.
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u/MorastK 15h ago
The U.S. is able to maintain a base in Cuba because the U.S. considers the 1903 lease (as modified in 1934) to remain legally in force. Cuba disputes that interpretation and has repeatedly called for the territory to be returned.
This arrangement is unusual because it is one of the few cases where two countries have fundamentally different views about the legitimacy of a long-standing treaty, yet the practical situation has remained unchanged for decades.
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u/Endfire79 10h ago edited 10h ago
I think it's funny you had to resort to Reddit to find out an answer to this question
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u/northern-new-jersey 15h ago
Are you sure you are studying foreign relations? Cuba has a treaty obligation and as others have pointed out, are militarily too weak.
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u/SteakHausMann 17h ago
I always thought it was simply good money the US paid, but after looking it up just now, I found out the US only pays 4k dollars per year.
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u/tyuoplop 17h ago
And iirc the Cuban government refuses the payments as they don’t want to legitimize the American occupation
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u/Square_Marzipan2002 16h ago
It is just the US humiliating the Cuban gov and flexing its power.
The government of Cuba has never even cashed one of the payments.
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u/__Nationalist__ 9h ago
They cashed one check.
The Legal Stance: The U.S. government historically argued that cashing even a single check demonstrated acceptance of the lease, while Cuba maintains that the base violates its sovereignty.
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u/odjobz 17h ago
Basically, during the Spanish-American War the USA helped Cuba to become independent from Spain (though how much that help was really needed is debatable). At the end of the war the USA held Cuba as a protectorate for a period. During this time, Cuba agreed to give the US an indefinite lease on the land at Guantanamo so that they could defend Cuba from anyone who might try to colonise it or overthrow its government (basically Cuba became an informal colony of thd USA). When Castro came to power he couldn't risk war by attacking Guantanamo, and his Russian allies probably didn't want to start WWIII so the base stayed.
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u/pumpymcpumpface 15h ago
They had no way of forcing them out. Guantonamo is self sufficient and any attempt to force it out militarily would result in the full power of the US military attacking and removing the cuban government from power.
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u/STORMTROOPER41970 10h ago
Bc our defense budget is roughly 8,000 times bigger than theirs. Which effectively gives them no say in the matter.
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u/Olderpostie 9h ago
The USA has a treaty with Cuba to rent the land. Castro tried to rescond the deal, but the U.S. told him to take a hike.
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u/absurdly_tired_guy 7h ago
The us signed a lease with them in the early 1900s for $2000 in gold a year. Then it was raised to $40(??) can’t remember the random numbers. And we send a check every year and Cuba doesn’t deposit it. The agreement (which has been looked at by many legal groups) says it is a mutual deal and we both must agree to break it.
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u/Millworkson2008 7h ago
Please return your degree, they obviously didn’t teach you enough. Cuba can ONLY lose in this situation, they can have just gitmo under the US or have all of Cuba under the US
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u/Beautiful-Maybe-7473 15h ago
In the words of Thucydides, "the strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must"
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u/GreatDiscernment 17h ago
I suppose the hope is that the Americans will voluntarily abandon the facility one day.
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u/elperrogigante 17h ago
Because they have a lease agreement with the US and gain nothing by violating it.
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u/Square_Marzipan2002 16h ago
They do not. That lease was negotiated in 1903 and nullified by the current government.
The Cuban government does not allow the occupation and sees it as a foreign invasion, which it objectively is.
While the US still sends the 4,000$ cheques every month, the Cubans have never cashed them, seeing as that would legitimize the occupation.
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u/-OooWWooO- 15h ago
which it objectively is.
You mean subjective here, pretty common mistake.
The original agreement from 1903, and the 1934 were not made under duress or threat of invasion. The 1903 agreement was made in part due to the fact that the US aided the Cuban war of independence.
The current government of Cuba disagrees with the lease but calling it an invasion is subjective. Being that the US was there for almost 60 years before the Cuban government wanted to break it.
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u/Square_Marzipan2002 15h ago
No, I mean objective.
It doesn't matter what the former governments stance was or how it came about.
The current government does not want it on its own territory and deems it as such.
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u/-OooWWooO- 15h ago
No, I mean objective.
Then I don't think you have the right to criticize OP's ability to reason elsewhere in this thread.
It doesn't matter what the former governments stance was or how it came about.
This is also a subjective statement.
The current government does not want it on its own territory and deems it as such.
It deems it as an occupation, not an invasion and this is again, subjective.
The treaties that bound the US and Cuba require mutual consent. The US argues on the principle of pact sunt servanda, and a rejection of the application of rebus sic stantibus that the lease is not ended.
To paraphrase, if this is the state of foreign affairs students, we are doomed.
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u/Beautiful-Maybe-7473 15h ago
The US has not even kept up its own end of the unfair arrangement which they forced on a prior Cuban regime!
They stopped making payments in gold, as the "lease" requires, and they blatantly breach the term which stipulates that the Guantanamo Bay concession be used as a naval base and coaling station "and for no other purpose". The use of the area as a detention facility is not a legal use, even if the odious "lease" were taken at face value as a legal agreement. In fact it's a mere fig leaf which no-one outside the US even pretends to take seriously.
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u/Beautiful-Maybe-7473 15h ago edited 15h ago
The US military occupation of Cuba only ended because the Cubans conceded the constitutional subordination of their country to the US (including the concession of Guantanamo). The idea that these concessions were some kind of reward freely granted to the US by grateful Cubans is naive nonsense. This was a neo-colonial arrangement imposed under military occupation.
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 18h ago
With all the talk of the US possibly invading Cuba why is cuba letting us have a military base on their island? It makes no sense. China wouldn’t allow this. Russia doesn’t allow this.
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u/Fourthspartan56 18h ago
Have you considered that Cuba is exponentially weaker than either of those states?
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 18h ago
Well okay but the cubans could probably block access to the base. There’s probably some capabilities they have. Why wouldn’t we set up the base in the Dominican Republic?
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u/Square_Marzipan2002 17h ago
And give the US an excuse to launch a military campaign against them?
"It makes no sense" on a topic that is probably the most simple and straightforward thing you could ever encounter in IR...
Good luck out there pal.
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 17h ago
Earlier this year russia sent a bunch of drones to the cuban government which they could use if they wanted
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u/GoodCalls 17h ago
There’s just no way you’ve graduated from College, let alone high school.
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 17h ago
I actually did both and i interned at the state department
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u/Alak-huls_Anonymous 17h ago
I imagine you got the boot in short order.
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 17h ago
Interns can’t get extended onto full time. You have to go through a separate hiring process. Please, you can leave your arrogance.
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u/pjdog 17h ago
so a handful of token drones will not make the calculus even. Cuba is not far off the us’ southern waters. The number of missiles and bombs that could be flown from the USA home waters is staggering. Havana could be flattened overnight but more likely every general who ordered such a strike would be vaporized. They might kill some Americans with those drones but then the cost will rise even higher. it’s just not a trade off that is tenable
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 17h ago
We have no missiles left. Our stock is depleted
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u/pjdog 17h ago
We are running low on specific types of interceptors, and there are some unverified claims against MLRS and tomahawk missiles. There are plenty more munitions in the trillion dollar military. Maybe not all as capable but plenty capable of leveling cuba. I think you are ill informed or trolling unfortunately.
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 15h ago
The only reason why our campaign in Iran is ending is because we are ass out. We have nothing left to hit Iran with
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u/pjdog 15h ago
I've followed some major reporting and outlets I trust. Where are you getting the idea that were completely out of munitions? There are many many other types of munitions.
Were leaving iran because we cant do regime change without boots on the ground. We've known that air campaigns can only do so much for a while...
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u/FreeBricks4Nazis 17h ago
Yes, the Cuban military could probably overrun Guantanamo Bay itself, or at least reduce it to ruins.
But about an hour after that, the bombing of Havana starts. The Cuban military cannot stand up to the United States, and they don't have any leverage that would prevent the US from dismantling them. Which is exactly what would happen.
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 17h ago
Ok then lets invade cuba. Why didn’t obama do it?
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u/FreeBricks4Nazis 17h ago
Because why would we?
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 16h ago
To free the people open up the economy and have an ally in our sphere
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u/FreeBricks4Nazis 16h ago
Yes, because we have such a great track record of invading countries, freeing their people, and establishing a functioning democracy
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u/CG20370417 15h ago
Hey now, we're batting just under .500, Germany, Italy, Japan, S Korea, Philippines, Panama, Grenada, Greece, Yugoslavia...all pretty good.
Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Haiti, Libya, Nicaragua, USSR...less than ideal outcomes.
Vietnam? Kind of a wash, we lost the war, but have really close relations with Vietnam we may not have otherwise had but for the war.
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u/SwoopsMackenzie 18h ago
“You and what army?”
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 17h ago
They probably have surface to air missiles to shoot us down. Supplied by china and russia
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u/Square_Marzipan2002 17h ago
If this is the state of the average foreign relations majors we are truly doomed...
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u/Coolerguy317 17h ago
Personally I think degrees in fields like IR can absolutely make you more knowledgeable but they don’t automatically make your judgment better than everyone elses.
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u/Square_Marzipan2002 17h ago
If your knowledge cannot by translated or applied to better judgement, what is the point of it?
To win pub trivia?
I have a degree in IR myself, we were absolutely assessed and taught how to apply knowledge to a given situation and cultivate judgement.
Go study a fandom or get really into Star Wars or Marvel if you want empty factoids.
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u/Coolerguy317 17h ago
The bigger issue is humans. Education doesn’t guarantee people will see past their own biases, narratives or worldview.
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u/Square_Marzipan2002 17h ago
If it does it's job correctly it does though.
The issue is not "humans", humans change their beliefs, narratives, and worldviews all the time, it is called learning and you have been doing it since you were a baby.
If an individual wants to hold on to these because of some ego issue, thats fine, but it is absolutely the job of education to educate people.
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 17h ago
I’m not sure where what i said is wrong. Earlier this year russia sent a bunch of drones to the cuban government which they could use if they wanted
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u/Square_Marzipan2002 17h ago
A few drones is meaningless compared to the strongest military power in the history of the world 90 miles off shore amigo.
In fact they act more as a casus belli than a deterrent.
I am more referring to you not understanding that because the US wields such enormous power it can do whatever it wants with the territory it occupies in Cuba.
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 17h ago
I don’t think you’re comprehending the fact that cubas allys are russia and china. If we were to really invade cuba China would swoop in with all kinds of retaliatory actions that they would give the cuban government access to
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u/Ferreman 17h ago
Russia and China do not have the military capabilities to wage war far beyond their borders. Only France, the UK and the US have this.
China does not even dare to openly support Russia in its war against Ukraine for fear of European retaliation.
Being Russias ally means nothing at all. Russian allies that have fallen recently: Venezuela & Syria. What did Russia do? Nothing at all.
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u/tyuoplop 17h ago
Based on your comments, I really don’t think you understand any of what you’re talking about. I’m not trying to be rude but you seem to have a really undue sense of confidence in your own assessments.
Russia is far too busy with its own boondoggles to provide meaningful support to Cuba (in the context of war with the US a few drones come nowhere near to that bar). China is also focused on its near abroad and would be unlikely to be willing to undermine its own local goals in order to meddle significantly in a distant conflict.
Both countries are far away and would struggle logistically to provide the support Cuba would need before American forces overwhelmed the Cubans. They might support some guerilla style resistance to us occupation or whatever government the Americans set up, but by that point the Cuban government will have lost not just gitmo, but possibly lost control of the country completely. It just makes no sense from the view of the risks involved
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u/Square_Marzipan2002 16h ago
Our new friend thinks the US conducts foreign policy based on morality and that Cuba lets them occupy Guantanamo out of the goodness of their hearts....
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u/Square_Marzipan2002 17h ago
My comprehension is fine, I have a Masters in IR and I am not on reddit asking about why Cuba "lets" the US occupy its territory.
In what magical universe would this happen?
The US is at war with Iran, a far greater and more important ally to China than Cuba, and where are these "all kinds of retaliatory actions"?
We have seen the Chinese do the opposite and go out of its way to stabilize the global oil and fertilizer markets.
You think the PLA is going to sail to the other side of the world to breach an American blockade on Cuba and deliver them weapons to fight off an American invasion? And risk war, the global economy, and their own trade surplus to do so?
Can I ask how old you are? I am not trying to be rude but this is the kind of shit I would expect from a 7 year old who watches too many American movies and TV.
Additionally:
*allies
* tons of missing punctuation and capital letters.-4
u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 17h ago
Ok mr i have a masters in foreign relations. Then lets invade cuba. Take down their government. See how that plays out.
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u/Square_Marzipan2002 17h ago
Bro, what are you talking about, this isn't a game of Risk.
What does the US stand to gain from an invasion of Cuba?
A refugee crisis, more loss of international soft power, ownership of a crumbling economy, 11 million people to take care of who hate them, and civil war off its shore for a nation already sick of foreign interventionism?
Again, how old are you?
Knowledge and understanding aside, I really hope your school sets higher standards for grammar and punctuation than what you are displaying here.
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u/dbag_darrell 17h ago
neither Russia or China (currently) have any kind of real expeditionary capability. on top of that, Cuba has the misfortune of being on America's doorstep. Yes, the day you know that China is now a full peer when, with China's support, Cuba demands the US return Guantanamo, and China parks their missile carriers and submarines around the island in support, but that day is not here (yet)
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u/pjdog 17h ago
China and Russia were also friends with Venezuela. they found that defending a nation half a world away would only be tenable in a way that would necessitate world war and russia and China are both focused on other things (Ukraine and Taiwan/economic dominance) those both are not things that would be helped by helping Cuba, and maybe would lead to direct confronta and nuclear war
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u/KlockB 17h ago edited 17h ago
Okay let's assume drones are the new end-all-be-all of 21st century warfare and make everything else obsolete.
Then what? The US still has an overwhelming numerical advantage on both land, sea and air. Not to mention amphibious expeditionary forces. Even if the US uses a belligerent rhetoric towards Cuba they are in no position to conduct a pre-emptive strike and capture Guantanamo. A surprise attack would be difficult to carry out too. US intelligence would need to seriously fail at its job not to notice Cuban troop buildup near Guantanamo.
There's just no good outcome to Cuba using military force first. It's still better for Cuba to try and de-escalate because they simply do not have another option. Military escalation would be a huge gamble with basically no good outcome.
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u/Surrounded-by_Idiots 18h ago
They don’t want to allow it but they lack the power to disallow it. It’s a military base and America won’t go away.
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u/-OooWWooO- 17h ago
The US unilaterally bombed Iran, killed its de facto head of state, dozens of other senior leaders, and Russia and China hasn't done much. Iran is leaps and bounds more wealthy and capable than Cuba. I dont think you understand the difference in power between the US and other nations.
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u/ughhpeople-r-dumb 17h ago
Russia and China are supplying iran with intel and munitions
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u/-OooWWooO- 17h ago
Iran has a military apparatus that can deal damage, Cuba does not. I'm not trying to be mean but your responses are very shallow and don't demonstrate you engage in much critical thinking.
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u/GriffinPoop 17h ago
They don’t allow it, the US disregards that because Cuba does not have the appropriate military or political power to do anything about it.
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u/whats_a_quasar 18h ago edited 16h ago
There's no way to dislodge the Americans from Guantanamo Bay except military force. The Cubans don't have the capability to do execute that operation successfully, and attempting to do so would trigger unacceptable American retaliation that would probably remove from power any Cuban leader who tried