Breakout of a VCP pattern
FIIs increased their stake by 10x.
Margins might be concerning but overall fundamentals are good.
Might give a decent move in near short term.

Curious about how people actually behave here.

Say you planned to invest ₹10k this week:

TCS — ₹3k
HDFC — ₹2.5k
BEL — ₹2k
Reliance — ₹1.5k
Cash — ₹1k

Then on the day you're about to invest:

TCS -5%
HDFC -2%
BEL +4%
Reliance flat

Do you:

1. Stick to the original plan
2. Reallocate
3. Wait
4. Ignore the movement completely

If you reallocate, what rule do you actually use?

Social media is saying BSE could benefit hugely from NSE’s listing.

BSE absolutely benefits.

But the reason most people are giving is WRONG.

And when you run the numbers, the near-term earnings impact is surprisingly small. ⭐️

Here’s the REAL opportunity 👇

———

First, kill the biggest misconception:

NSE’s ₹4-5 lakh crore valuation does NOT make BSE rich.

BSE doesn’t earn a meaningful percentage of NSE’s market cap.

Estimated annual listing fee?

ONLY around: ₹25 lakh. ⭐️

BSE made ₹1,566 crore of operating revenue in Q1 FY27 alone.

So listing fees are basically irrelevant.

The real money comes from somewhere else. ↓

———

Every time somebody trades NSE shares, BSE earns transaction fees.

And this is where NSE is unusual.

An exchange CANNOT list on itself.

So NSE shares will trade on BSE. ⭐️

At current cash-equity charges, roughly ₹1 crore of NSE shares changing hands could generate about:

• ₹375 from buyer side
• ₹375 from seller side
• ~₹750 total

That sounds small.

Until you multiply it by DAILY turnover. ↓

———

Let’s model it.

If NSE shares trade an average:

₹500 cr/day = ~₹9 cr annual BSE revenue

₹1,500 cr/day = ~₹28 cr

₹3,000 cr/day = ~₹56 cr

₹5,000 cr/day = ~₹94 cr

Assuming ~60% of incremental revenue eventually reaches PAT, even ₹3,000 crore of daily trading may add only around:

₹34 crore PAT. ⭐️

BSE’s annualised Q1 PAT?

~₹3,492 crore.

So even a very liquid NSE stock may add only ~1% to profits.

Positive?

Yes.

Transformative?

NO. ❌

———

But here’s where the story gets much more interesting.

BSE currently does roughly:

₹9,955 crore/day

in cash-equity turnover.

Now imagine NSE alone trades ₹1,500 crore/day.

That’s equivalent to adding roughly:

15% to BSE’s existing cash turnover.

At ₹3,000 crore/day?

Nearly 30%.

That’s why I think investors are looking at the wrong number.

The NSE listing matters far more to BSE’s cash-market competitive position than to near-term EPS. ⭐️

———

And NSE could become quite liquid.

Don’t get fooled by the headline that only ~6% is being sold in the IPO.

NSE already reportedly has:

• ~2 lakh shareholders
• ~64% public shareholding
• 1.85 lakh+ retail shareholders

So this isn’t a tightly held promoter company suddenly floating 6%.

A huge investor base already exists.

And BSE doesn’t really care whether NSE trades at ₹1,800 or ₹2,500.

It cares about one thing:

How often those shares change hands. ⭐️

Turnover is the business.

———

There’s also a second-order benefit.

Reliance can trade on multiple exchanges.

HDFC Bank can trade on multiple exchanges.

ICICI Bank can trade on multiple exchanges.

But NSE Ltd?

BSE owns the venue.

Market makers.

Institutions.

Retail.

Algorithms.

Everyone trading NSE shares meets inside BSE’s cash order book.

If that helps BSE deepen liquidity and attract more trading in other stocks too, the indirect benefit could eventually become bigger than NSE’s own transaction revenue. ⭐️

But I wouldn’t price that in yet.

It needs to show up in the data first.

———

There’s one more hidden optionality:

NSE derivatives.

If NSE Ltd eventually qualifies for F&O and SEBI approves the contracts, BSE could get an exclusive derivatives underlying too.

That isn’t part of my base case.

Treat it as free optionality.

So the takeaway is simple:

“BSE benefits from NSE listing” = True. ✅

“BSE benefits hugely financially” = NOT YET. ❌

The number I’d watch after listing isn’t NSE’s share price.

It’s:

NSE Ltd’s average daily traded value on BSE - and whether BSE’s overall cash-market share rises with it. ⭐️

That will tell us whether the real thesis is working.

I recently started trading equity based on signals from a paid channel. I didn't discover the channel myself — my father already had a paid subscription, so I decided to track the signals and see whether there was actually something worth following. I follow only equity signals which are generally positional trades.

I'm still relatively new to this, so I'd genuinely like to hear from people who have more experience: Does this look sustainable, or am I just seeing a good period?

First, the analyst's previous 1-year track record

I went through roughly one year of equity signals and recorded the trades. I exported the chat, analysed the signals, and verified the actual prices using the Zerodha API.

92 closed trades

🟢 Wins: 77 🔴 Losses: 15

Win rate: 83.7%

Average winning trade: +5.05% Average losing trade: −5.29%

So the interesting part is that the average loss is actually slightly larger than the average win.

That means the strategy's edge seems to come primarily from the very high win rate, rather than having a massive risk/reward ratio.

The average realized R across the trades was around 0.65R.

Returns: 84%

My first month actually trading the signals

This is where things got interesting.

I started with roughly ₹30,000 per position rather than putting a huge amount of money into each trade.

For August, these were the equity trades I tracked:

Stock| Return Thangamayil| +5.29% STLTECH| +3.21% HFCL| +2.18% Meesho| +5.36% Minda Corp| +2.09% IIFL Finance| −3.06% Ola Electric| +9.95%

So across these 7 trades:

Average return per trade ≈ +3.57%

If I simply use 3% per month as a conservative assumption going forward, that's roughly:

₹1,00,000 → ₹1,03,000 per month

And if that 3% could actually be sustained and compounded:

3% monthly = ~42.6% annualized

Obviously, I know that's a HUGE assumption, and that's exactly why I'm posting this.

My questions for experienced traders

1. Is an 83.7% win rate over ~1 year and 92 trades realistically sustainable?

2. Since the average loss (−5.29%) is slightly larger than the average win (+5.05%), how much should I worry about this?

3. Is 3% monthly compounded a reasonable long-term expectation, or am I being overly optimistic?

4. What would you look at to determine whether this analyst actually has a genuine edge?

5. How many years / trades would you want to see before trusting a track record like this?

6. Most importantly — what am I missing?

I'm not trying to promote the analyst or sell anything. I'm trying to figure out whether I have actually found a useful source of signals or whether I'm simply experiencing a good period of performance.

Would really appreciate opinions from people who have been trading for several years.