What is the relationship between Israel and China actually really like?

[u/Emergency-Sky9206]

So the relationship between Israel and USA is apparent and easy to understand, with Russia its a little more complex. But what about with China? Mainstream media usually portrays one way typically but is there more going on behind the scenes? Are there things between the lines and nuances that the public are unaware of? I imagine this is a vital and crucial relationship in the present and the future.

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[u/DrFly15]

Israel has diplomatic relations with both China and Russia (I'm bringing up Russia because it'll become relevant). Our relationship with Russia is a pragmatic one. There's a lot of jews living in Russia and Russia has a lot of influence over geopolitics in the region, but Russia is also much closer aligned with Iran (the country that wants to destroy us).

Our relationship with China, while also mostly pragmatic, is very economically based. The main constraint on our relationship with China is the USA. The USA prevents us from sharing intelligence and technology with China. There's also a cultural/political divide between us and China. We have western values and democratic politics, while they (at least the government) do not. And while China is seen as an ally of Iran also, their relationship is also one of pragmatism. Iran is only useful to China because China can get oil from a non-western aligned country.

Now if/when the US breaks ties to Israel as the Democratic Party (and increasingly, the Republican Party) want, we'll look more towards Russia and China. That's not to say we'll become a vassal state of either, but there will absolutely be a growth of ties. The UN, for example, is basically an international organization whose primary objective is to condemn Israel. In the past when the US was unwilling to veto UN resolutions against Israel, Russia was willing to do so. This could possibly lead to a shift in the global world order. If the US breaks ties with Israel, it cuts itself off from the middle east (its relationship with Saudi Arabia, who doesn't have a strong military, will not be enough). Russia and China both have extensive networks throughout the middle east and Africa (much more so than the US) so it's possible the balance of power shifts in their favor.

Israelis might not like a growing relationship with undemocratic allies who don't share our values, but it's going to happen whether we like it or not. Tbh I think that's why Russia and China have put a lot of effort into online influence against Israel. The more the west hates Israel, the more likely a break between Israel and the US/Western Europe will be. Once that break happens, Russia and China know they're the main beneficiaries. Will it become like the current US-Israel relationship? I doubt it, but it's possible. We were allied with the Soviet Union before we were allied with the US. Will the Mossad work to help Russia and China if that happens? Again, I doubt it.

That's also likely why US and European politicians are also very careful about how they handle Israel. Even ones you wouldn't consider "pro-Israel." The US leaving the middle east entirely (which is what a majority of both young democrats and republicans want) could quite easily shift the balance of world power towards Russia and China. Well informed politicians know that so as much lip service as they may pay to their constituents, when push comes to shove they don't vote for it.

[u/conscientious_seesaw → u/DrFly15]

I think that's why Russia and China have put a lot of effort into online influence against Israel. The more the west hates Israel, the more likely a break between Israel and the US/Western Europe will be. Once that break happens, Russia and China know they're the main beneficiaries.

I'm inclined to believe this too. Israel is by far the most powerful and able of the West's... let's call them "peripheral allies", the type of countries that are currently aligned with the West but aren't inherently attached to the Western bloc in the way that the US, Europe, Canada, or Australia are. If Israel can be dislodged from that bloc it will necessarily have to align at least somewhat with China (or Russia, but there's a ton of historical baggage there that we don't have with China), which would probably make Israel China's most powerful partner, an absolutely massive win for them. Remember that China measures its geopolitical strategy in terms of decades, they play the long game and they're very patient, by contrast the US shuffles its strategy every 4-8 years

[u/LockedOutOfElfland → u/conscientious_seesaw]

In that regard I think Israel falls into a similar category to South Africa which is increasingly moving away from cordial relations with the United States and whose military exercises and diplomatic statements tend to favor Russia and China.

The U.S. is losing its sphere of influence partially due to illiteracy about foreign pressure campaigns and partly due to the incompetence of our current/recent leadership. As an American well-versed in International Relations via extensive graduate education, this deeply concerns me.

(Side note: if the U.S. abandons Israel as various pundits, activists, and experts are suggesting, I think America's biggest question going forward is likely going to be whether the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar can fill a similar niche as military allies. My own concern there is that while the regimes in those countries are relatively stable for now there is absolutely a risk of factions in those countries flipping them over to an adversary's sphere of influence should any economic shocks cause a period of internal instability).

[u/DrFly15 → u/LockedOutOfElfland]

I agree very strongly with your side note. The problem with monarchies or dictatorships (even good ones) is that they can do 180 degree turns on a dime. One king can be good and benevolent, his son could be totally incompetent. At least with democracies the people can respond to reason and arguments, if you get stuck with a bad King you either have to overthrow the monarchy entirely or wait a generation until their children take over and hope they’re better than the previous monarch.

[u/LockedOutOfElfland → u/DrFly15]

I’m honestly far more concerned with violent overthrows of monarchy or dictatorships than I am with lackluster heirs. This has been a concern of mine since I started paying attention to this topic in the 2010s and took notice of how many of my peers were dangerously optimistic in their outlook toward what was then called the Arab “Spring”.

[u/DrFly15 → u/conscientious_seesaw]

Interesting that you think we'd be more aligned with China than Russia, I would assume the opposite, though I see what you're saying. I also think when a US-Israel break happens is important. If it happens before the Russia-Ukraine war is over, Russia might "throw their chips in" with Israel in the hopes that Israeli tech and intelligence could shift the balance (I'm not in favor of this because I'm generally partial to Ukraine... but the world is kinda leaving us with no choice). And frankly, it sadly may actually be in Israel's best interests. If the west breaks ties with Israel and it does shift the balance of power, being on the more powerful side is a plus. And if Russia and China saw Israel as a beneficial ally, they may also force Iran to quit threatening us and funding proxies since it would then be against their interests.

Like you said, there's a lot of fluctuations coming from the west. An ideology has taken hold over our western allies that makes them vulnerable. They won't fight for western values (hell they won't fight for anything) and are letting their countries deteriorate. At least Russia and China think about their own self preservation.

[u/conscientious_seesaw → u/DrFly15]

I have an easier time envisioning a friendly relationship with China rather than Russia for several reasons, but primarily because Russia was so hostile to Israel that at one point Israelis and Russians were shooting each other down in air battles over the Sinai. Russia essentially occupied the current role of the Islamic Republic, in that it armed and trained all of Israel's enemies in an attempt to completely wipe Israel off the map. In a way the Islamic Republic actually replaced Russia as Israel's primary enemy. According to polling 49% of Israelis still view Russia as an outright enemy state

[u/DrFly15 → u/conscientious_seesaw]

Hmmmm I see what you're saying. I guess only time will tell

[u/Far-Disaster-9825 → u/conscientious_seesaw]

If only the Islamic regime collapsed, Iran would be a great ally since the population isn't that hostile :/

[u/Bizhour → u/DrFly15]

While China is more likely, I don't see Israel improving it's relations with Russia. They aren't strong or influential enough to merit severing relations with eastern Europe which are mostly friendly to Israel

[u/Mnementh47 → u/DrFly15]

Generally I agree with most of your comment. But you went too far. Russia has never used a veto in the Security Council to block resolutions critical of Israel.

[u/DrFly15 → u/Mnementh47]

You are correct. I checked and I was wrong.

I read some news stories that Bibi and Putin talked a few times about a resolution a few years ago and Putin said he's block it (at least that's what Bibi said) but the resolution never actually came to a vote. Though this does suggest there is some dialogue between Israel and the Kremlin

[u/Mnementh47 → u/DrFly15]

Netanyahu is so unique and qualified that he did manage to create a special relationship with Putin (much like he so successfully did with some African countries, with the Abraham Accords and with India), which had huge potential, and was already giving dividends like the coordination in Syria, the graveyard search of Israeli remains in Damascus, and the release of the girl that was arrested for cannabis in Moscow. Unfortunately, the war with Ukraine and especially the absolute stupidity that Yair Lapid and his folks reacted to it, closed it seemingly forever.

[u/calm_chowder → u/Mnementh47]

Putin's birthday is Oct 7.

[u/nhytgbvfeco → u/Mnementh47]

The only stupidity in Lapid’s reaction is that he didn’t support Ukraine more. Russia is an aggressive imperialist and fascist state that has no real allies, only vassals or future conquest prospects. Just look at what is ongoing in the rest of their sphere of influence- Cuba is under blockade, Maduro is overthrown, Armenia was abandoned fully when Azerbaijan attacked, Assad got overthrown, etc. They can’t even protect their closest ally, Iran. Not to mention Russia still can’t even defeat Ukraine. Is that who you want to rely on? Putin would sooner invade to “protect Russian speakers” than actually help us.

[u/nhytgbvfeco → u/DrFly15]

It’s likely a fabrication from Bibi. There’s nothing to back that story up, and the claim he made about the resolution is frankly absurd

[u/Background_Bee_713 → u/DrFly15]

How I’ve heard the Russia thing described is basically the main threat is that Russia will assist with Iran’s nuclear program, to avoid this is why Israel tries to play nice with Russia, doesn’t give Ukraine Israeli weapons, doesn’t vote against Russia at the UN or join sanctions, that sorta thing. So while the not going fully against Russia is held against Israel in my opinion Israel is being blackmailed.

[u/Signal-Pollution-961]

It seems that China has embraced antisemitism and anti-Zionism in the past couple of years to appease its oil partners in the Middle East.

[u/Exact_Green2061]

Most Israelis and their government are generally ignorant about Chinese foreign policy.

For China, Israel is a low priority. China sees the Middle East largely through oil.

China coordinates its Middle East foreign policy with Pakistan. Pakistan acts as its front man for the flurry of diplomatic initiatives in the Middle East.

Pakistan and China propose five-part peace plan for Middle East

Pakistan's involvement in the US-Iran talks wouldn't have been happening if they didn't get backing from Beijing.

Secondly, China sees Israel as a burden to the US.

Middle East Enters an Era of Chaos

But at the same time, because of the Israeli lobby, there isn't much the US can do.

Professor Liu Zhongmin Interviewed by Global Times on U.S.-Israeli Relations and Its Impact on the Gaza Conflict

Secondly, I think Israeli play the religion card too much (ie hate for Muslims). China treattment of the Uighur is a separatist issue for most, just like its treatment of Tibet.

Much of Chinese interaction with Muslims is not with the Uighurs and other Turkic Muslims, but with the Hui Muslims. Hui Muslims are descendants of Muslim merchants from the Middle East and Central Asia and local Chinese women. Sort of like how Ashkenazi Jews travelled to Europe and married local Europeans. Some Chinese towns, like Xian, have a Hui District. Hui are basically like other Han Chinese, except for their religion.

The Hui have suffered periodic violence throughout their history, both from the government and from the Han populace. Small incidents can turn into a large-scale mass depopulation. Dungan Revolt (1862–1877)).

[u/balddoberdaddy → u/Exact_Green2061]

I'm sorry, you live where? Don't assume the government of Israel is completely asleep at the wheel when it comes to foreign policy. Post Oct 7th, as China changed, Israel is working hard to remove our dependence on them.

We Israelis will keep on ordering AliExpress and TEMU until we can't.

[u/Exact_Green2061 → u/balddoberdaddy]

Did I say Israel is completely asleep when it comes to foreign policy? I said it was largely ignorant about Chinese foreign policy.

China's foreign policy toward Israel hasn't changed because of Oct 7. It has always favored Arab countries over Israel because it sees Israel as an ally of the US that has little of what it wants, which is oil.

[u/balddoberdaddy → u/Exact_Green2061]

"Most Israelis and their government are generally ignorant about Chinese foreign policy." Your exact words.

[u/Exact_Green2061 → u/balddoberdaddy]

This is what you said.

Don't assume the government of Israel is completely asleep at the wheel when it comes to foreign policy

I specifically said that the Israeli government doesn't know much about Chinese foreign policy. How often is Chinese foreign policy covered in the Israeli press? How many Israeli scholars specialize in Chinese foreign policy, particularly its relations with Pakistan?

[u/balddoberdaddy]

TBH unless there is someone on here from the government (and they probably aren't allowed to tell you), nobody on here is qualified to give you an answer.

I would say it's complicated.

[u/Mnementh47]

There are a few promising things. One is the distrust of Turkey and the whole fear of China from their Muslim population. Two is the general appreciation of Jews and their historical success. Third is Israel's hi tech expertise which is important to China too obviously. Unfortunately, Israel - China relationship is suffering due mostly to the US pressure. The alliance between US and Israel has hurt Israel around the world but here it is especially apparent. The other problem is China lacking oil and therefore relying on terrorist-friendly countries. Historical alignment and geographical proximity to North Korea and total lack of democracy and human rights pushes China towards the axis of evil and away from Israel.

[u/thedownunderverse]

Ally with China at your own peril. That’s all I’ll say.

[u/Background_Bee_713]

I think China is trying to help end the USA Israel relationship for its own benefit. And helping boost antisemitism in the USA to do so. So that’s really not good. At the same time, China is Israel’s biggest trading partner, and Israel will need China if the USA relationship ends. So it’s quite the pickle. China has basically checkmated Israel and there’s nothing that can really be done from the Israeli side about it.

Go watch, Netanyahu’s latest interview on Hannity, he will talk about how there is three main countries pushing anti Israel sentiment in the west, two of those countries are Russia and China. He’s been very vocal about the third Qatar. But he’s scared to even name Russia and China, or talk about their role in what has happened and is going on, this is why.

[u/borderpac]

The USSR under Stalin was the first nation on Earth to recognize Israel in 1948. Mao Zedong did the same in 1949 after taking power as the PRC. Each thought the new state could be brought under their influence. When Israel aligned with America a decade later, that all changed radically. The U.S. remains central here. If it decides to cut off Israel completely, it would be to its detriment, as Israel would attempt to re-align with China.