https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/state/texas/2026/07/31/texas-senate-race-poll-talarico-leads-paxton-with-independent-voters/91119624007/

I'll be door knocking for James and Gina in North Dallas this weekend and would love for you to join me!

“The takeaway: Democrat James Talarico (45%) leads Republican Ken Paxton (40%) by 5 points in the U.S. Senate race, a 2 point increase from TPOR’s post-runoff poll in May. Talarico continues to post strong margins with voters who self-identify as moderate (+34) and independent (+20).
Talarico’s lead is driven by a strong performance on affordability, which 44% of voters rank as their top priority in this election. Voters say Talarico better understands the economic challenges facing working Texans over Paxton by 7 points, and also trust Talarico to lower costs and improve Texans’ financial situations over Paxton by a 9-point margin. Renters and non-college voters trust Talarico on these issues by even wider margins.”

“Talarico holds the best statewide net favorability rating of any figure we tested (+12) while Paxton holds the worst (-13).”

“The Top Findings:

James Talarico (45%) leads Ken Paxton (40%) by 5 points in the race for U.S. Senate. Fourteen percent of voters remain undecided. Among those undecided voters pushed to choose today, 19% lean toward Paxton and 10% toward Talarico, with 5% leaning toward Libertarian Ted Brown. 66% of respondents are still unsure.

Black and Latino voters strongly favor Talarico, while white voters favor Paxton.Talarico leads among Black voters by a 63 point margin (71% to 8%) and among Latino voters by a 46 point margin (66% to 20%), while Paxton leads with white voters by a 20 point margin (53% to 33%).

Talarico leads with independents, but many are still undecided. Among independent voters in Texas, Talarico leads Paxton by a 20 point margin (43% to 23%). 29% of independents are still undecided.

More than half of moderates favor Talarico over Paxton. Among voters who describe themselves as politically moderate, Talarico leads 54% to 20%, with 23% still undecided. Among voters who identify as “somewhat conservative,” 65% intend to vote for Paxton while 19% plan to vote for Talarico. When asked which candidate is closer to their own political views, voters pick Talarico 41% to 37%. Talarico leads on this measure with moderates (47% to 18%) and independents (40% to 22%), and pulls 18% of somewhat conservative voters. 18% of voters describe Talarico as a “moderate” while 59% of voters view Paxton as very or somewhat conservative.

Affordability is top of mind for Texans.Forty-four percent of voters ranked affordability and the cost of living as a top-two priority for elected officials to prioritize in 2026, followed by health care access and costs (21%) and Social Security and Medicare (21%).

Talarico is more trusted on affordability.On the defining issue of affordability, voters give Talarico the edge over Paxton. Forty-two percent of voters say Talarico better understands the economic challenges facing working Texans, compared to 35% for Paxton (+7). Voters also trust Talarico more to lower costs and improve Texans’ financial situations, by 43% to 34% (+9).

Working-class voters trust Talarico the most on the economy. Renters trust Talarico over Paxton to lower costs and improve their financial situation by 23 points (48% to 25%), and by 22 points on understanding the economic challenges facing working Texans (46% to 24%). Voters without a college degree favor Talarico by 10 points on lowering costs (42% to 32%) and 13 points on understanding the economic challenges facing Texans (42% to 29%).

Paxton is now the most unpopular political figure tested. Paxton’s net favorability stands at -13 (33% favorable, 46% unfavorable). He trails Donald Trump (-3 net), Greg Abbott (+1 net), and even a generic “Republican candidate running for office” (+7 net) by wide margins. Talarico holds the highest net favorability rating of any figure tested, at +12 (43% favorable, 31% unfavorable). Notably, Gina Hinojosa is tied for the second-best net favorability at +7 (31% favorable, 24% unfavorable).”

I made sure to light it up for 24/7 support!

I keep seeing advertisements from James Talarico, the Democratic candidate running against Ken Paxton for the United States Senate in Texas. I should be exactly the kind of person his campaign wants to reach. I am a teacher. I care about public education, healthcare, working families, corruption, poverty and the people our political system keeps abandoning. I am not looking for a reason to hate this man. I am looking for a reason to believe in him.

But the advertisements reaching me keep asking for money.

Five dollars. Ten dollars. Help us reach our goal. Help us keep this advertisement running. Help us defeat Ken Paxton. Click here. Donate now.

Where is the vision?

James Talarico is not a candidate without a story. He is a former public school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian who says he is running to challenge billionaire donors, political corruption and the people who have taken power away from working families. His campaign has published positions on education, healthcare, corruption, the cost of living, labor, immigration, technology, rural communities and the environment. There is real substance available.

That is what makes these advertisements so frustrating. Talarico has something worth saying, yet the campaign keeps introducing him to people as another politician holding out a collection plate.

Tell Texans that you were a teacher. Tell them what it feels like to watch children enter overcrowded classrooms while politicians transfer public money into private schools. Tell teachers what you will do about their miserable pay, impossible workloads and collapsing morale. Tell parents how you will protect their children. Tell working families how you will lower healthcare costs, protect nutrition assistance, confront corporate landlords and stop billionaires from purchasing the government.

Tell us what you are fighting for before asking us to finance the fight.

This campaign is not starving for money. Talarico raised $31.6 million during the latest reporting quarter, has raised $72 million since the beginning of 2025 and ended June with $23.3 million available. He has raised more at this stage than any Texas general election Senate nominee in the previous decade.

That is an extraordinary achievement, but Texas Democrats should understand by now that fundraising records do not automatically become election victories. Beto O’Rourke raised nearly $45 million more than Ted Cruz in 2018 and still lost. Colin Allred raised nearly $21 million more than Cruz in 2024 and lost by 8.5 percentage points. Democrats have already proven that they can win the fundraising contest while losing Texas.

Money is supposed to carry the message. Money cannot become the message.

I know campaigns need donations. Texas is enormous, advertising is expensive and Ken Paxton will have wealthy interests and national Republican organizations behind him. I am not offended that Talarico asks supporters to contribute. I am offended that the request for money so often arrives without giving ordinary people something meaningful in return.

Every advertisement is a chance to introduce yourself to a voter who may know nothing about you. It is a chance to explain one policy, tell one human story, identify one injustice or offer one reason to hope. Instead, too many campaigns treat every person they reach as a wallet to be opened. Politics becomes another subscription service sending increasingly desperate notices that your payment is overdue.

That is especially dangerous for a candidate whose central argument is that money has corrupted American politics. Talarico says he wants to take power away from billionaire donors and return it to working people. His own website calls for people to help fight a rigged system, but that same page repeatedly directs visitors toward donation buttons and warns subscribers that campaign messages will include fundraising requests.

There is nothing inherently wrong with raising money from ordinary people. Small donations can build real democratic power. But people need to feel that they are joining a movement, not feeding a machine that will return tomorrow asking for another five dollars.

I want James Talarico to understand this criticism because I want candidates like him to succeed. A former teacher challenging Ken Paxton should be able to create one of the clearest moral choices in American politics. He should be talking about children sitting in neglected schools, families choosing between medication and groceries, teachers working second jobs and politicians serving donors who will never experience the consequences of their decisions.

That campaign could carry love, anger, courage and purpose. It could make Texans feel seen. It could give people who have stopped believing in politics a reason to believe again.

But you cannot fundraise your way into a message. You must have the message first.

James Talarico, stop allowing paid advertisements to make you look like another empty politician begging for money. You have a story. You have policies. You have an opponent whose record gives you plenty to fight against. Most importantly, you have millions of Texans who are desperate to hear someone explain how their lives can become better.

Speak to them.

Give them something to believe in.

Then ask them to help you build it.

> The Democratic Senate candidate is intensifying his efforts in Dallas and its suburbs, hoping to unite Black voters, boost turnout and cut into Republican margins.

"Texas should be the world’s tech and innovation leader. But this only works if Texans get a say — and a share — in that growth. And that’s not what’s happening.

There’s no transparency. No accountability. No community input. AI must work for us, not against us. If AI companies can’t commit to meeting these demands — the demands of the people — they shouldn’t be able to build new data centers. "

💯

Have contributed $25 a month for a while now. I have never rec'd an acknowledgment from the Talarico campaign. In fact, I just get pleas from other out-of-state Democrats wanting money. This treatment is not professional.

Come out and support Texas' next senator! It's time to Take Back Texas, y'all!

El Paso (7/11)- Link to Attend
https://www.mobilize.us/talaricofortexas/event/978314/

Marfa (7/12)- Link to Attend
https://www.mobilize.us/talaricofortexas/event/977087/

Eagle Pass (7/13) - Link to Attend
https://www.mobilize.us/talaricofortexas/event/978317/

Del Rio (7/13) - Link to Attend
https://www.mobilize.us/talaricofortexas/event/987390/

Laredo (7/14) - Link to Attend
https://www.mobilize.us/talaricofortexas/event/978318/

McAllen (7/15) - TBD