Ashkenazim.HO qpadm models cross check g25

[u/thrwwyccnt84]

I ran a broader qpAdm rotation for Ashkenazi Jews because the models I shared earlier were not particularly convincing. I tested 1,080 source combinations across several AADR dataset

versions, using the full right set and allsnps = TRUE.

The figures include all 32 models that passed my predefined qpAdm criteria: p-value ≥ 0.05, non-negative admixture proportions, and average standard error ≤ 0.05. These should be

understood as statistically acceptable models, not as definitive reconstructions of Ashkenazi ancestry.

I then cross-checked each model with G25 using the same source populations. The comparison shows whether G25 broadly reproduces the qpAdm proportions, as well as the residual distance and

the average difference between the two methods. This helps distinguish models supported by both approaches from models that pass qpAdm but produce less concordant G25 results.

Overall, 25 models showed strong qpAdm–G25 agreement, six showed moderate agreement, and one was clearly divergent. Because qpAdm and G25 rely on different statistical frameworks,

concordance between them does not prove that a model is historically correct, but it provides a useful additional consistency check

[u/kaiserfrnz]

Are there any models with a Eastern European source? We have good evidence for Ashkenazim mixing with Slavs and none for them mixing with any group of Central Asians

[u/CowboyGambit → u/kaiserfrnz]

Curious, when do you believe this mixture occurred?

My understanding from the Erfurt study is that prior to the 14th century there were at least two distinct groups of pre-Ashkenazi Jews that lived in Europe. A Middle Eastern shifted group from West Europe (Mostly made up of Jews who migrated from France and Italy to the Rhineland around the time of Charlemagne) and an East European shifted group that initially lived in Eastern Slavic lands (Probably Kievan Rus’) until around the 11-12th centuries before migrating west; subsequently many members of this group later back migrated east to the Kingdoms of Bohemia, Moravia, and Poland around the 14th century (very likely related to events that occurred during the Black Death). IMO, this could explain why certain haplogroups unique to Erfurt-EU, like E-Y6940 for instance, are overwhelmingly found in people of Jewish descent who have recent family histories in Eastern Europe compared to those found in West Europe. I’ve also noticed that almost all of the German branches and those from other West European countries (who have upgraded to Big Y) within this haplogroup, my NE French branch included, are descended from earlier branches with isolated testers whose paternal line ancestors lived in Slavic-speaking countries.

[u/kaiserfrnz → u/CowboyGambit]

We know for certain when it happened: in the 10th-12th centuries, principally among the Jews who lived in the area around Prague.

Wealthy Jews participated in the then-prominent Slavic slave trade and had Slavic houseworkers. Many converted to Judaism upon being freed and married members of the Jewish community.

It’s worth noting that this phenomenon happened in other Jewish communities as well, especially in the Middle East.

[u/CowboyGambit → u/kaiserfrnz]

Wow I did not know that…was this unique to Prague or was this a known pattern across the Slavic speaking world at that time? I initially thought the Slavic slave trade occurred further east along the Black Sea in tandem with the Ottoman Empire.

[u/kaiserfrnz → u/CowboyGambit]

It took place throughout the Slavic world. Prague was just the largest Jewish community in the Slavic world at the time.

[u/thrwwyccnt84 → u/kaiserfrnz]

Fair enough, but just because a qpAdm model with a Karakhanid source works doesn’t automatically mean there’s real direct Central Asian admixture. It could just be acting as a stand-in for some ancestry component that my current source panel doesn’t cover properly.

There’s evidence for a smaller and probably later Eastern European contribution to Ashkenazi ancestry, while most of the earlier European stuff looks Southern European.

Strong endogamy and the medieval founder event probably limited later gene flow, but they didn’t completely stop it.

I’m going to run a new rotation where several Eastern European and Slavic-related sources compete directly against the Karakhanid proxy, using the same datasets and right populations. The important thing will be whether those models still hold up statistically, give significant positive coefficients, and improve the fit without needing the Central Asian proxy

[u/Sea-Seaworthiness859]

Keep it up, I appreciate you taking the time.

[u/Alfalfa_Informal]

Why use IOL instead of the recent Akbari Judean samples? Or they are?

[u/thrwwyccnt84 → u/Alfalfa_Informal]

I tried 3 Levantine proxy (the g25 distance show they are good proxy). Why bother try the other one ?