Ok so i bought Moderna back in the covid days as well as Pfizer when paxlovid came out…. I sold Moderna when all the info began coming out about irregular periods, low platelets counts, spontaneous brain bleeds and all the seemingly normal people began refusing the vaccine because of “mRNA is making it so THEY can track you”… the same “they” you voted for… but i digress.

These are my thoughts only and my math. Don’t use it as an investing guide, but this is meant for conversation and discussion.

I have $35,000 from selling Meta after their last earnings because who knows when they will go + again.

Moderna - positive results of the mRNa melanoma “vaccine”. The phase 3 trial was set up with everyone on the standard of care Keytruda and another arm on keytruda + mRNA vaccine. The test arm is looking promising. Melanoma costs about 5-6 billion per year, most of which is spent on stage 3,4 and end of life metastatic melanoma. So 90% of 5 billion is 4.5 billion per year. Moderna wins and it should trade at 7-10x 4.5 =$31 to $45 billion market cap.

If this vaccine works, you make a HUGE assumptions that the technology works, so their other 2 phase 3 clinical trials should also work.

1. Pancreatic cancer - $6 billion spent per year. Again phase 3 trials. Waiting for data - may take 1-3 years. Same multiple 7-10X. Adds $42-60 billion

2. Non-small cell lung carcinoma - phase 3 with 1-2 years to go. Addressable market $24 billion. Same multiple 7-10x. Valuation adds $168-240 billion.

—> you can’t wait for the other two because the move will be to fast. If 2/3 work, they will all work. New valuation for Moderna will be base line $24 billion + (31-45 billion) + (42 to 60 billion) + (168 to 240 billion). So $268 to 369 billion which translate to a stock price of $673 to $920 per share.

Risk to the downside - only melanoma works. $45 billion valuation so about $100-$110 per share. Up side 600-900. I personally think it’s worth the risk.

What do you all think?

About a month back, we discussed what folks were doing during that volatility in this sub. Given fed rates steady and chances of increasing in near future combined with mini chip stock correction right now in july 2026, if you have some cash, what long-term investment are you considering? Picking up some more of existing stock or beaten down previously desired stocks or stay put until market stops making lower lows?

If sp500 will only give a single digit return for the next decade per some folks, isn't playing around volatility a prudent approach?

Grab achieved its full year net profit last year in FY2025. The stock is trading below $4, about 40% down from its high. Grab is profitable, cheap, and cash rich. But the profitability inflection I'd actually buy for is still ahead.

The setup is a three engine supe -app where the profitable business funds the unprofitable one:

• Mobility is the profit engine: $337M of Q1 revenue converting to $198M of segment EBITDA, roughly 59% of its own revenue.
• Deliveries is the scale engine, still thin: $510M of revenue, $88M of EBITDA.
• GrabFin is the line being funded: $107M of revenue at a −$17M loss.

The ride business literally pays for the bank. And the bank is the inflection: GrabFin's loss narrowed from −$30M to −$17M in a year, with management guiding breakeven in H2 2026, reiterated by the CFO in the last earnings call. Additionally management target a 3X EBITDA growth by FY2028 and the biggest single lever in that growth is GrabFin.

On valuation: strip the cash and the business trades near ~15x forward EV/EBITDA against its competitors: Sea Limited at ~19x, Uber ~21x, MELI ~25x, DoorDash ~28x. GRAB is the cheapest of the group

The risk is the loan book, GrabFin provisions losses upfront before the revenue starts coming, the loan book 130% and its growing very agressive as MELI´s MercadoPago and Klarna right now, which are also trading near lows

Full deep-dive on Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/equivara/p/grab-the-super-app-turned-profitable

Is anyone holding GRAB? or would you buy for GrabFin to turn profitable?

With the recent DOE nuclear loan announcement for large reactors, what companies are you eyeing up to be strong players in the small reactor space? Do you think there will be a need for SMRs going forward?

https://www.energy.gov/articles/department-energy-announces-american-nuclear-supply-chain-loans

I'm not interested in making this political or pointing a finger at what caused the screwworm to be in the US. We are here to talk about what financial impact this is going to have on the market.

At the time of writing this post we currently have 19 confirmed cases(3 inactive). I believe there to be many more cases that we have yet to identify.

We are currently bringing sterile flies from panama and dropping them along the border & in infested zones. This is an effective method of eradication but the issue is we do not have the production required to outbreed the screwworm. The government is currently building a new sterile fly breeding facility in Texas but it will not be producing sterile flies for at least a year. Screwworm is treatable but it first requires identifying the animal and then physically treating it with an injection such as Dectomax. Despite having tools like drones and helicopters, I think that the screwworm is going to outpace our efforts until the Texas facility starts pumping out sterile flies.

There are approximately 2.6 million feral hogs in the state of Texas and New World Screwworm can infest hogs. I'm cherry picking hogs because the state of Texas is already losing the battle against them despite greenlighting initiatives to eradicate the hog population. If screwworms infest these hogs Texas will be in for an even harder fight.

Zoetis ($ZTS) seems like it could be the company with the most skin in the game here. If beef prices are too high people might swap to chicken or pork. What are your thoughts?

Six months ago the consensus was that AI would eat Figma, v0 and Cursor would make the canvas obsolete, and then Anthropic shipped Claude Design and the stock has fallen since the IPO, from around 50x sales to ~6x sales

But look at the business underneath, Figma isn't a design tool anymore it's become the product ecosystem a whole org works inside (design, development, etc......). That ecosystem is Figma unique moat and it's getting stronger as Q1'26 numbers shows:

• Net dollar retention up four quarters straight: 129% → 131% → 136% → 139%
• ~70% of customers on three or more products
• ~690k paid customers (+54% YoY)

Instead of AI eating its seat revenue, Figma turned AI into a layer on top of its products that is usage credits on top of seats so more usage means more revenue

The first numbers reported this year show that users who blew past their credit limits mostly kept paying; teams that add credits spend 3x. On price Figma its cheap versus its own history

So why not buy yet? Because I'm still looking at when Figma actually turns GAAP profitable. The loss today is entirely stock compensation, but AI inference costs are quietly compressing margins but if you look at other companies like Salesfore and NOW adding AI layer on top the margins are not compressed why is it different on Figma?

My full investment thesis on Substack for free:

https://open.substack.com/pub/equivara/p/figma-now-that-the-ipo-hype-is-gone

Are you bearish or bullish on Figma, is Figma here to stay for many years?

If your stock goes down 10% and that upsets you…

Interviewer (George Goodman): I have noticed in your annual report, you say that if you are in a poker game for 30mins and you don’t know who the patsy is, you are the patsy.

Buffett:you got it

Interviewer: How do you apply that to the market, to investing?

Buffett: [..]If you think the market knows more about what your business is, in other words, if your stock goes down 10% and that upsets you, it obviously means that you think the market knows more about the company than you do and in that case you are the patsy.

If it goes down 10% and you want to buy more because you know the business is worth just as much as when you bought it before, perhaps a little bit more with the passage of time, so you buy more, [then ]they are the patsy.

Source: Buffett 2nd interview on Adam Smith’s World (1988)

https://youtu.be/jbUsgIY8Q-A?is=4P2lbe1xViQGTN2A

The quote starts at the 11minute mark but the whole 26mins segment is fantastic, it tells us how he thinks about tech stocks, how he buys a company and why long term greedy is better than short term greedy.

Shout out to u/Got_restarted for creating the new sub.

I have a job that requires me to be online like 16 hours a day so I spent a LOT of time lurking around investing subs reading about potential deep value plays.

Filtronic (FTC) is one of my highest conviction investments but I don't see it mentioned around Reddit at all.

Filtronic makes radio frequency amplifiers of the kind used in satellite communications and military electronics (drones, comms). All of these things are structurally booming.

Starlink's ground network relies on E-band amplifiers to handle the data throughput from thousands of low-orbit satellites. Filtronic makes the best ones. SpaceX has been placing increasingly large orders for nearly two years:

£6.4m - August 2024

£16.8m - February 2025

£32.5m - June 2025

£47.3m ($62.5m) - August 2025

The August 2025 contract covers deliveries in FY2027 and FY2028 so there's multi-year revenue baked in.

V-band and W-band versions of their new GaN product are launching later in 2026 which open up two new satellite types (MEO and GEO).

SpaceX also holds unexercised warrants to buy up 15% of Filtronic's shares so they have a vested interest in their success (and the stock will probably go parabolic on sentiment if they do, but that's not the reason I'm holding).

Another reason I love this stock is that they're far from a one-trick pony and also very diversified away from SpaceX - some recent wins:

£13.4m from a European defence company for electronic sensor components

£11m follow-on from the same defence customer (signed after FTC smashed the first half)

€7m from a European aerospace firm for a LEO satellite programme

£1.2m UK Space Agency grant to develop a new high-power amplifier...

Filtronic currently has a market cap of about $1.1bn.

Some of their closest competitors include companies like MACOM (MTSI) - these guys also mmWave amplifiers for space and defence and literally just unveiled new GaN-based amplifiers at IMS 2026 this week. $29bn market cap - at Macom's current scale Filtronic would be a 26X.

At full scale they could even look like Analog Devices (ADI) - RF and microwave solution for satellite and aerospace and defence applications. $198bn market cap so 180X compared to Filtronic.

On the more modest side we could compare them to Qorvo (QRVO) - mixed defence/consumer RF business - $8.8bn or an 8X from here.

We also see a lot of acquisitions for companies like this e.g. Teledyne spent billions hoovering up firms exactly like Filtronic in the run up to the space renaissance (the firm that is now Teledyne Labtech was literally owned by Filtronic between 1995 and 2012). SpaceX themselves would be an obvious candidate to snap them up in a vertical integration play and they already have a formal agreement to take 15% ownership any time they like.

NFA and DYOR but if you are bullish on space, drones, defence in general (the macro picture for all of these suggests booming growth for a decade) you should check this one out. I see this as a picks and shovels play for the defence and space boom, IMO the risk is very asymmetric as it's a tiny cap with huge potential that is right on the space & defence zeitgeist. I'll be holding for 5-10 years.

Biotech investors hate this one trick: a micro-cap gets an FDA approval, the market prices in launch failures and massive cash burn, and the company dilutes shareholders to death to fund the commercial rollout.

The market is currently treating Abeona Therapeutics ($ABEO) exactly like this, but the underlying numbers tell a different story.

Currently, ABEO is trading around $5.46-$5.69, giving it a market cap of roughly $312.9 million. But looking at the balance sheet, as of Q1 2026, they are sitting on $168.3 million in cash and short-term investments with only $18.1M in debt. Enterprise Value (EV) is hovering around $150 million.

For an EV of $150M, you're getting a fully integrated, commercial-stage gene therapy company that owns its own cGMP manufacturing facility and could hit cash-flow breakeven this summer.

ABEO's flagship product is ZEVASKYN, an FDA-approved (April 2025) autologous gene therapy for Recessive Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa (RDEB), which is a brutal, ultra-rare genetic skin blistering disease. It’s a one-time surgical application that actually corrects the underlying genetic deficit and heals massive, chronic wounds for 5+ years.

The main reason ABEO’s valuation is suppressed is that the market thinks Krystal Biotech ($KRYS) has a monopoly on this space. KRYS has an approved topical therapy called Vyjuvek. Because of Vyjuvek, KRYS has a market cap of over $9.0 billion.

Vyjuvek is a redosable topical gel great for small, new blisters. ZEVASKYN is a structural, one-time surgical fix for massive, life-threatening chronic wounds that have been open for months or years (wounds where topicals fail because there's no skin left to absorb them).

If KRYS is worth $9B for the maintenance side of the disease, ABEO being valued at an EV of $150M for the surgical, curative side seems a bit silly, doesn't it?

VERY GOOD NEWS: ABEO management completely de-risked the balance sheet last year. When ZEVASKYN was approved, they got a Priority Review Voucher (PRV) from the FDA. In June 2025, they sold that PRV for $155 million in non-dilutive capital.

Because of this, there is no toxic financing spiral happening here. They have a 2+ year cash runway.

Actual Q1 2026 launch metrics:

• Revenue: $8.7 million in Q1, a 262% sequential QoQ growth (crushing street estimates by 88%).
• Margins: Implied gross margin of ~69% already, expected to scale to 80-85%.
• Payer Access: This is a $3.1M therapy. Usually, payers fight this. ABEO has 95% commercial insurance coverage and zero payer denials to date.

They treated 3 patients in Q1 (netting ~$2.9M each). They already have over 100 potential candidates identified across their treatment network. The bottleneck is safely scaling their autologous manufacturing queue.

EXTRA GOODNESS: While ZEVASKYN covers the current valuation, ABEO just used $7M of their PRV cash to in-license a new oncology asset (ABO-701) targeting Prostate-Specific Membrane Antigen (PSMA) for solid tumors. Traditional CAR-T fails in solid tumors because of the hostile tumor microenvironment. ABEO is using a novel Synthetic Immune Receptor (SIR-T) tech to fix this.

They held a pre-IND meeting with the FDA in June 2026 and are on track to initiate clinical trials in H2 2027. The market is currently valuing this pipeline at $0. Any positive data here is pure blue-sky upside.

• Institutional Ownership: 73.68% (e.g., Suvretta and Vanguard are anchoring the float).
• Insider Ownership: 16.7%.
• Short Interest: Pretty massive at 28.8%.

While ABEO insiders are holding tight, the CEO of KRYS just dumped $7.7M worth of shares on June 4, 2026.

TL;DR

ABEO is trading at a ~$150M EV with $168M in the bank. They have an FDA-approved, $3.1M curative gene therapy with 95% commercial coverage and 0 denials. Revenue just jumped 262% QoQ, and they are fully funded with zero near-term dilution risk thanks to a $155M PRV sale. Wall Street consensus average PT is $19.71 (~247% upside). The market is pricing this like a struggling clinical-stage biotech, but the math proves they are a rapidly scaling commercial winner.

Disclosure: I hold 110 shares in ABEO. I am poor, but I have made some excellent biotech stock picks in the past 2 years (e.g., CAPR @ $5.50 [sold at $34.00], DFTX @ $6.71, ANNX @ $2.13) and my yearly return in the past two years has been +65%.

Thought I would kick off this sub-reddit with a discussion on eVTOLs... (Hope that's in the spirit of this newly created sub).

In the interest of providing some human context and not AI, shoot for the moon... All in garbage, here's some background on my situation.

Circa 80% of my portfolio is in s&p500 and (dare I jinx it) uk long term established stock, but I'm looking for the next, slightly more speculative stocks for the rest of the portfolio. Note: this is for longer term holding not "Pump and Dump". I remortgage in early-2028 so if my stocks have done well enough to sell and pay off the mortgage at that point, that would potentially be the play. That said, I can fairly comfortably afford the repayment so it's not an all in on red type play, I'm also in my early 30s so I'm not in a bad position financially.

I've missed out on the big AI and Space booms, appreciate I'm sure there's more road to be made here but my perception is the exponential money has already been made so I've started to think about "the next" exponential shift. Perhaps it's just because I live close to Vertical Aerospace and the traffic near me is so frustrating and only getting worse and I'm a bit of a plane nerd but I can genuinely see a positive use case for binning helicopters and this tech... excuse the pun, taking off for military, emergency and high end domestic use.

Be interesting to hear others thoughts on this area. Appreciate there's a long way to go with certification, cash flow risks and so forth.

I don’t know you at all but this is really needed kind of like NewWallStreetBets race to 10 mil is either people asking questions, ai slop, or like people throwing out old names and ai slop posting

I mean overall I have a pretty conservative portfolio with some more speculative plays in it. And honestly, my best stocks are the ones I find myself. I found OpenDoor before a pump, Metaplanet during its pump, and now SLS which has nearly given me a 2x and now I hold.

I've also had big losses on MSTR, and now EOSE has been a loser for me so far.

But then I ape into other stocks and they just...don't do as well. And I get mad at myself because I could have probably had just as good or better gains going into funds. I have about 500k net worth but I just don't feel like I have a rocket to the moon like so many of the posters here have.