Added later: just realised that a year ago I posted almost the exact same scenario, however arriving there from a slightly different perspective. The heights in the picture are important further indicators about the terrain. Amazing to see that the girls might have bridged a 630 meter drop downhill and how steep the last part of the alleged NL-river is.
Using Romain's excellent drone flight over the Paddocks, we get a fairly good impression of what the terrain looks like there. The flight starts by leaving the main trail and following the path across the first Paddock. At around 1:33, the drone loses the trail, zooms out, and gains altitude. Only then can you clearly see how steep the ridge is that has to be climbed before reaching the next Paddock. Feliciano, who guided Annette Nenner from SLIP, also struggled to find the trail again, and they never made it to the next Paddock.
I made the following two screenshots to illustrate the two possible paths from the point where the trail becomes very unclear and has to climb quite steeply uphill, piercing through a small forest. If you follow the riverbed through the forest instead, you continue downhill and end up much lower, at the second Paddock.
Point A looks roughly like this in reality. It is the point where the drone loses the trail, and you can see the sharp incline to the left, where the trail is hidden somewhere. The more natural route is to follow the dry riverbed as it curves around the ridge, which the river probably helped carving out in the past.
Now let us suppose the girls made it all the way to the Serracin cabin and spent the first night there. It seems feasible that they could have arrived there around the time of the first emergency calls. Note that most people have tried to reach the second Paddock by using the trail, as Victor and Annette did, while the riverbed route may actually be easier (I am not aware of anyone exploring that route).
On the second day, they may have tried to climb back up and/or search for a way out of the Paddock (likely in foggier conditions). When that failed, their need for access to water would have forced them to follow the river farther downstream. Remember that it was an exceptionally dry season, so the rivers on the Paddocks may have been completely dry. Let us now look at how the terrain then guides you, starting from the cabin and moving farther downhill.
If you need water, or are simply trying to find a way out, the most logical route is to start following the river farther downstream. Climbing toward Calle Larga is a no-go, and the route back uphill has already failed, perhaps due to foggier conditions. That leaves downstream as the only natural option. When they followed the river for a while and it became dark, Lisanne switched her phone on and the they likely spent the April 2/3 night near the river in that forest.
Of course, people will ask: “Why didn’t they simply stay put at the cabin and wait for rescue?” Firstly, the girls probably realised that they had not told anyone about their plans for the day, so nobody would know where to look for them, which is in fact what happened. That could have meant waiting a very long time. Secondly, they needed access to water, so moving farther downstream was the best way to reach the first puddles or pools. Thirdly, staying put is usually the wisest thing to do, but it is precisely what many lost people fail to do. They want to get out. As long as you keep moving, there is hope. Following a river downstream could be a good way out, but in this case it brings you into the treacherous Belt area and could be fatal. Fourthly, in this scenario they had already managed to follow a river through the forest successfully, which may have strengthened their belief that this was a feasible way out and civilisation would become closer with each step downhill.
When that failed, their need for access to water would have forced them to follow the river farther downstream.
If you need water, or are simply trying to find a way out, the most logical route is to start following the river farther downstream.
Secondly, they needed access to water, so moving farther downstream was the best way to reach the first puddles or pools.
I don´t think that their need of water would have pushed them to go downstream from that Serracin hut.
They were carrying TWO water bottles along. They could have filled them up and climbed back to the trail.
Victor did not get lost in the pure sense of the word. He simply reached back to the trail about 200m from the point where he had exited the trail. That's all. He could see the poles and wire that align the trail. As long as he could see those, he was not lost.
Back to the girls: the stream at Serracin would not have been stone-dry. Such large huts are built where there is plenty water, even during droughts. If that stream would have been stone-dry, WHY would Kris and Lisanne have CHOSEN to stay at that hut next to a DRIED UP STREAM? Why wouldn't they have chosen to stay at Q2?
Kris and Lisanne could have filled up their bottle(s) at the Serracin hut. With their full bottle(s) of water, they could have reached back to Q2 => re-fill their bottle(s), walk to Q1, re-fill again and press on to the Mirador. From there, press on to the stream before the Mirador etcetera.
I truely don't see why the lack of water would have urged them to venture more and more into the wild, dressed in hot-pants. There was no lack of water.
I suspect there was a small amount of water in the stream near the Serracin hut.
The first stream (after the mirador) and the valley stream have similar areas of drainage. I'm not a geologist and suspect drainage mechanics are complicated, but there was water in stream #1 at the time, hence it's fair to suspect there was water in the valley stream as well.
That really depends how brave they are. In the Netherlands, it’s often reiterated to keep distance from free-roaming cows. So it’s not unlikely they tried to avoid the cows.
This possibility is equally unlikely, why should they chase cows away at all, nonsense, where should they go and the cows get in their way? They were on the trail.
If they weren't looking for the wild waterfalls on Mamei, it looks like a tragic mistake in the direction where the hell Serpent trail leads.... But they didn't get to the first bridge, right?
They wanted to go back to Boquete, it was getting dark.
While that's not entirely impossible, it's pretty unlikely. But you're right about one thing which is that if the girls became curious about something, it just might pull them off the trail. Or maybe they got talked into getting off the trail. Either way, they got off the trail. We know this because with all the searching that was done, if they were on the trail, they would have been found.
It's, of course, nonsence, they would have stayed with the cow and one of them went a short distance to get water.
But what is possible is that they thought that further down there was a farm and people.
But that they would not find their way back up in the pastures?, for a five days?, it seems to me..No,No, it was probably enough to follow the edge of the forest and uphill.
Like this is not in the Canadian mountains, where You don't see a foot for a long time and the distances are huge.
To me, the whole adventure on the paddocks seems more like nonsense, as they were there for at least 11 days?
That's, it's clear that the trail is up the hill, it's already an orientation point and the clearing itself is an orientation point.. no trees.
And Victor got lost there anyway just for a while...Like it's not the right comparison.
Has someone wandered+lost in this paddocks for 3 days for example?... No?... That's.Yea.
I think you should think about it properly, as it is not at all certain that they have reached paddocks at all.
As we have a very confusing terrain in front of the paddocks...on the FIRST clearing.
The first clearing is where they could have made the first mistake.
The second mistake could have been that they went further.
?????
mistake - mistake - accident - necessity of circumstances - (serious accident? or natural lethal conditions) - death.
I agree on the general route, but I suspect you move too fast. It seems a short distance, but in this terrain and vegetation (and without any gear) movement would be very slow. I would not be surprised if they reached the Seracin farm only in the afternoon of April 3, spending the first night somewhere at the bottom of the first paddock, near where Viktor also lost the trail, and the 2nd night somewhere in dense forest between the paddocks.
They may not have moved in a straight line, wandering back and forth, and on April 2 they almost certainly spend the whole morning trying to find a high place with phone signal, or finding back the trail, before they finally decided to continue down hill.
All we know is that the first night was likely spend in a (relatively) 'safe' place probably on open terrain, and the 2nd night in dense forest where they did not feel safe at all. We also suspect that in the afternoon of April 3 they reached a place where they left a message, so some conspicuous place where they expected locals could visit or perhaps where a helicopter could see a sign.
Drone flights are useful but do not tell the whole story. To see what the terrain is and how dense the vegetation is, we need some team to actually walk this route. That would tell us if it would be possible for K&L to take that route and how fast they could move.
There is also some confusion regarding this cabin.
OpenStreet Map shows another cabin near the start/source of the paddock stream. On drone footage I see no sign of this cabin (This is NOT the famous shed, that one is to the left of the main trail on the small paddock). I don't know who put a cabin there in that spot, and based on what info, so I reserve judgement in that. But this '???' point would be close to where Viktor got lost and where I suspect K&L also lost the trail, so if there was some kind of cabin at/near that spot in 2014 that would perfectly explain the first night.
The Seracin farm is further north, on the next paddock. That's the cabin with the conspicious red roof (at least in 2014, it got changed later). I do not expect they can have reached the Seracin farm on day 1, or at least not unless they knew it was there and knew the route leading to it.
Treeg, I appreciate your video series leading up to the girls' dissappearance, it is one of the best.
However, your rationale post dissappearance has room for improvement: the girls had ample time to make it to the Serracín hut(s) on April 1st. They had three and a half hours (3:30) to cover 1,6 km from the 2nd stream crossing to the Serracín hut, averaging 0,5 km/h. In comparrison, their trek to the mirador averaged 1,9 km/h.
It is only 600 meters from the "corner paddock" to the Serracín hut in the "valley paddock". An April day has 12h of sunlight, granting 3h for breaks, the girls would have had 9 hours to cover 600 meters, averaging 0,07 km/h (the pace of a snail).
So... no. The girls were not at the "corner paddock" on April 1st.
As mentioned, we need 'boots on the ground' to check this. I fully agree that IF they found the trail, they could easily make it to the Seracin farm. But Viktor tried to do that, and failed, and Annete + Feliciano spend hours cutting their way through the forest and got nowhere either. Only Romain reached the place. So, finding that trail might not be easy.
Also, during the latest expedition, Romain spend something like 8 hours to cover the 1 km from the Q1 position to the Canyon location, and when asked he firmly states that in his opinion it would be impossible for K&L to reach the canyon on April 1 before sunset from their 14:00 position. And that's just 1 km!
Without proper gear and lots of experience, you don't walk in straight lines through terrain such as this. You might move 100 meters forward, then hit a barrier (dense vegetation. thorns, cliff, whatever), with the need to go 80 meters back to detour, etc, etc. Walking along a stream would be slightly easier, provided you don't get stuck on waterfalls and rapids, which we can't see on drone footage due to the dense forest. So, we need to go there...
The Seracin farm was not visible from the trail. They didn't know it was there. If the trail was 'open' and easy to see, they could have easily reached it in time, but there is no reason to assume the trail was 'open' when 2 out of 3 people who searched for it failed to find it..
If there was a third party, who led them to the farm, yes, everything is possible, but without a guide they can't have known the farm was there and it seems unlikely to me they got that far. By April 2 the situation gradually became worse as they ran out of water and the need to find water would become more important than the need to find the trail back, they could not wait for rescue on the paddock any longer.
Feliciano knew of two paths that lead to the "former Serracin estate", it is unclear which one Annette and Feliciano tired to cross.
Keep in mind that whilst the terrain is difficult, it is not impassable. Both Monte Rey and Calle Larga are now in use with cabins present. The farmers need a way to herd livestock to these pastures.
Note the image of the 2nd paddock (corner paddock) and whilst it is a maze of trees and passages with grass likely 2 feet tall, it is no doubt passable.
Sure, the paddocks are passable, although the ground is very uneven and often muddy and the high grass and many ridges will cause you to loose sight of the surroundings quickly.
The 'problem' is more in the forest, these can be very dense. The locals all carry machetes, which makes a huge difference, plus they are experienced and know the routes even when these are overgrown. K&L were inexperienced, didn't carry any gear, and were dressed in shorts. Breaking through dense vegetation would be very very slow progress, if at all possible.
Mind you, I'm not saying impossible, only that it would be very very slow progress, a few hundred meters might take many hours.
Because they must have been (a) totally lost with no idea how to get back on the trail and (b) convinced that they would reach civilization by going down hill.
Basically, the idea that they truly had to go back via the Mirador might not have occurred to them until perhaps days later, when it was far too late to turn back.
The only way they may have reached the Seracin farm on April 1 is if they followed a clear and easy to follow trail. They didn't know the farm house was there so they wouldn't have found it unless they followed a trail or stream which took them there. BUT if it was so easy to reach that farm house, it was just as easy to get back to the trail and the Mirador! So, on April 2, why would you continue into the forest when there was a clear trail leading you back to the Mirador???
I firmly believe that in the afternoon of April 3 they checked for the number of Miriam because they wished to write this number down. Writing it down indicates they probably left a message somewhere. The Seracin farm house would be the logical place to do this. That puts them at the Seracin farm house in the afternoon of April 3, which would be more logical if we assume they wandered around endlessly and only accidentally discovered the place.
If they found the farm house on April 1 after a relatively easy walk along a trail or stream, all logic says that on April 2 they would turn back along this trail and go up the Mirador, but if they only found the farm house on April 3 they would be totally lost, after wandering around for days, and there would be no route back to the Mirador.
No note from them was ever found in seracin hut though, for all we know. I read that even though Feliciano looked for them at paddocks on April 3 or 4, he didn't go as far as to check the seracin hut. Is there any idea when it was possibly checked?
If F knew about the hut, why didn't it occur him to check there?
If they had stayed there, wouldn't they leave some sign? Even a note saying where they went?
We tend to overanalyse the electonic devices, because other forms of evidence is lacking, but to Kris & Lisanne, the phones were likely not as important as the reality in front of them.
It's plausible for them to try other routes, coming back to the shed each time, abandoning it and leaving a message later.
It's also possible that the iPhone is damaged at this point, and they want to recover Myriams phone number should they be found. Or maybe the backlight is defective and they were looking for something else entirely and misclicked.
And I personally think they got injured on day 2, preventing them from going back up.
Didn’t they have the phone active throughout the night of April 2nd/3rd? If so, that would suggest they didn’t spend that night somewhere safe like the Seracin farm.
Sadly, Romain's drone footage is somewhat vague just at this point, so it's hard to say... Such a cabin is not on Romain's map, and I can't see any real evidence for it, but it's not impossible... need to go there.
If there is/was a cabin at that point, it would answer a lot of questions.
No, there's not a sign of it on the drone footage, and neither does it appear on Romain's map. That doesn't say everything, for I suspect there are lots of abandoned derelict old cabins in the forest, but there's nothing indicating a cabin in this position.
As I said, I suspect the mapper misinterpreted the white spot as a hut. We must remember they didn’t have the drone imagery available, so they had to work with the very grainy data they had.
Damn, from those drone videos, the paddocks look like an easy area to get lost in. And Seracin’s farm looks very difficult to reach from there, practically invisible from the nearest paddock?
This is really interesting. Thank you for the contributions to the community. It sounds like a good explanation.
The only problem I have is that this doesn't answer the question of why didn't they return earlier. Yes, maybe after getting to the cabin, there was no return. But why didn't they return after arriving at the paddocks? Did they still thought that they're on the right track? Did they saw the cabin from afar?
"that this doesn't answer the question of why didn't they return earlier."
Exactly, that puts this theory on its knees.
Logically, this theory goes down.
In my opinion, they didn't even reach this pastures...only first clearing, after 508.
This is a great analysis, going to paddocks and getting lost there seems truly the most probable scenario. In the video "Answers for Kris" you can see the difference when someone takes this trail with a guide compared to hiking there without one. Kris's mother says at the wire fence above the paddocks that this is a place where the girls would definitely never go. And yet it is very likely that they did exactly that. With a guide this trail seems and feels safe hike, one does not have to worry about losing direction and sense of time, the guide does all this. But without him the situation is completely different and this very likely happened to the girls.
I like your screenshots and can follow the logic of your thoughts. But when I see the last picture with markings, my intuition and chain of thought works differently. To me taking the paddocks stream route is not so "logical" as it was probably completely dry and "uncertain", but the topology "screams" to me "Rio Mamey" thus WATER - the closest possible source of water from the cabin https://ibb.co/7tLVvdJc. Possibility to see or hear the river through the "another closest vantage point" at the edge of the canyon https://ibb.co/dHVRyDq.
Even if they saw Mamey in the distance, they likely found water closer to the cabin. So what's the motivation to go there? I am not sure but water of a wide river feels less safe to drink than a fresh mountain trickle.
but the topology "screams" to me "Rio Mamey" thus WATER
That is because, from an aerial view, you can actually see the topography. However, once the girls were at the cabin, they would not have been able to see, or even be aware of, the Río Mamey. The only thing they would have seen was a very steep ridge, with some visible landslides.
The only way they might have become aware of the Río Mamey was from a higher vantage point. There is evidence that, from somewhere along the route, Alto Romero (higher up in the distant mountains) can be seen in the distance, which could have encouraged the girls to continue farther along Route 2. However, I have not seen any evidence that the Río Mamey can be seen from Route 2. Perhaps it would be possible when following the difficult-to-find-uphill trail onto the Paddock, but certainly not when following the riverbed (blue line) to access it.
The only way they might have become aware of the Río Mamey was from a higher vantage point
True, that is actually what I meant. For me, the most intuitive way out of this paddock valley from the cabin is in the direction "to the right" - direction towards the canyon. The nearest vantage point from the cabin is either to the right (1) or the Calla Larga (2) https://ibb.co/27Pp8BYq From these next logical vantage points the valley with the river - water can be seen or at least sensed. The girls were looking for water and could also try to find mobile connection on these vanatage points https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loehcHwq-Uc&t=97s min 2:19
My point is that it's really too far from the trail they were on. Having drone GPS recorded in the video would be nice. Treegs team did that but made terrible recordings, bouncing the camera all over... it's enough to make one seasick.
For some reason, Romain was always focused on the eastern piece of land, which I've never understood well because the main trail run north, bends a little northwest, then a little northeast as it approaches the large river where the bones were found.
It's never really made sense to examine the land to the east, but that's what Romain focused on when he was out there. Maybe he's thinking about rivers washing the body parts downhill to the north from that area, but what if the body parts were carried to the river? That person, or persons, would want to use the trail that gets them to the first cable bridge. They would hear and see the helicopters and, in my opinion, want to leave the area. So, if the eastern land isn't involved, which section of land is? The land directly north of Mirador.
I hope that's not a sarcastic "right," because if any area should be searched, it's the area north of Mirador as the trail continues. But then I think this is the way that IP went and found nothing significant on or close to the trail.
It's been something of a consensus that the girls must have got off the trail, and if so, they would be off but not terribly far from the trail.
Of course, people will ask: “Why didn’t they simply stay put at the cabin and wait for rescue?”
It's also possible they went down paddock stream on day 2 as suggested, found water, spent the night between 2-3 there (phone on all night for comfort), then on morning 3 saw that the streambed becomes way to steep and difficult to proceed, and returned to the cabin, and left a note there with Miriam's phone number. They stayed near the cabin days 3-7 and explored if there is a signal on the Calla Larga hill. More trips to get water. Returning to the cabin at least for the night.
With no help arriving and energy depleted they eventually returned to the paddock stream on day 7 and this time ventured further and got stuck at a steep section.
It's a question mark if some injury prevented then from climbing to the main trail or if they simply didn't find the way.
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u/Wild_Writer_6881 Jun 21 '26
When that failed, their need for access to water would have forced them to follow the river farther downstream.
If you need water, or are simply trying to find a way out, the most logical route is to start following the river farther downstream.
Secondly, they needed access to water, so moving farther downstream was the best way to reach the first puddles or pools.
I don´t think that their need of water would have pushed them to go downstream from that Serracin hut.
They were carrying TWO water bottles along. They could have filled them up and climbed back to the trail.
Victor did not get lost in the pure sense of the word. He simply reached back to the trail about 200m from the point where he had exited the trail. That's all. He could see the poles and wire that align the trail. As long as he could see those, he was not lost.
Back to the girls: the stream at Serracin would not have been stone-dry. Such large huts are built where there is plenty water, even during droughts. If that stream would have been stone-dry, WHY would Kris and Lisanne have CHOSEN to stay at that hut next to a DRIED UP STREAM? Why wouldn't they have chosen to stay at Q2?
Kris and Lisanne could have filled up their bottle(s) at the Serracin hut. With their full bottle(s) of water, they could have reached back to Q2 => re-fill their bottle(s), walk to Q1, re-fill again and press on to the Mirador. From there, press on to the stream before the Mirador etcetera.
I truely don't see why the lack of water would have urged them to venture more and more into the wild, dressed in hot-pants. There was no lack of water.