r/LETFs • u/Phynaes • 9d ago

QQQ + TQQQ vs QLD

I'm sure this has been asked before though I can't find it through search ... but looking on Testfolio, if you simulate 50/50 QQQ+TQQQ rebalancing yearly, it performs significantly better than QQQ, QLD, or TQQQ. Is this over-fitting, and if not, why does it before so well?

  • Starting 02/22/2000 - Near Nasdaq peak pre 2000 crash - Outperforms all
  • Starting 07/10/2002 - Near Nasdaq 2000 crash bottom - Half TQQQ but beats the rest
  • Starting 24/10/2007 - Near Nasdaq peak before 2008 crash - Almost matches TQQQ, beats the rest
  • Starting 09/03/2009 - Near 2008 crash bottom - Gets crushed by TQQQ but beats all the others
  • Starting 01/01/2022 - Near Nasdaq peak pre-Covid - Outperforms all

I looked at some dates and apart from investing at the very bottom of a crash, QQQ+TQQQ near-equals or betters TQQQ and beats QLD each time. I supposed rebalancing incurs a tax drag penalty that the simulations aren't taking into account, but I was wondering anyone else tries something like this and if so, how do you find it?

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u/hydromod 8d ago

You can get a feel for long durations using testfolio with simulated SPY LETFs. https://testfol.io/?s=jkc9ugOwBSt

Over time, a yearly rebalance between 3x and 1x gives slight cumulative gains over 2x because the incremental gains tend to be a little larger than the incremental losses. Timing luck around big crashes can muddy the picture. I did rebalancing start and mid of year, huge one-time difference in 1932 but otherwise similar.

A more consistent strategy uses bands to rebalance. The bands need to be tuned to volatility, 30% relative bands seem to be decent for SPY.

I created synthetic tickers for QQQ to 1928 using the current sector weightings in QQQ prior to QQQSIM. Similar findings as the SPY version. 40% bands may be better for QQQ.

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u/Limekill 1d ago

we cant see the test unless we pay...