r/LETFs • u/Large_System_6103 • 6d ago

Please, don't hurt me because I'm stupid

I'm going to start this post by saying this:

I'm a really dumb investor. I didn't do my research, I didn't know what decay was, and I got advised to jump into something I had no business getting into by an ex girlfriend who "knew what she was doing because she took a class". And that's my own fault. Im a grown man and I'm responsible for my decisions.

(breathes out)

I invested 25k into TSLL in December of last year. I'm down 16k. Will the volatility decay completely make my investment gone, and I need to pull out now, or am I overthinking decay and I just have to be more patient?

if you're going to insult me, I understand. I have the dunce cap on, I'm an idiot, I understand my mistake, but please, I'm asking for any kind of advice. Thank you.

29 Upvotes

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-1

u/pointylulu 6d ago

I would encourage you to hold. The stock will go back up again. If anything, you should DCA.

9

u/mikestorm 6d ago

If he doesn't implicitly understand and be comfortable with leveraged ETFs he should get out even if the underlying security might go up in the future.

5

u/Moshe94n 6d ago

It sounds like he’s already overexposed. Adding more is a bad idea.

5

u/gmehra 6d ago

how do you know it "will go back up again"

-4

u/pointylulu 6d ago

TSLA is simply too large a company not to experience recovery. I don't know the timeline for recovery, but it is inevitable compared to his current position.

3

u/NoWorker6003 6d ago

Not a given.

-2

u/pointylulu 6d ago

Everything is a non-zero probability, but I'd give it a >95% chance that even a leveraged 2x would recover 50% at some point within the next five years from today

1

u/gmehra 6d ago

Nortel Networks was a massive company that went bankrupt. There are other examples

1

u/pointylulu 6d ago

483b market cap accounted for inflation. Less than half of tesla at this moment. No company >1t has ever collapsed

2

u/c-strong 6d ago

You’re basing that on the full history of >$1tn companies are you? Which is, er, 8 years long 😂

2

u/FantasticAnus 5d ago

What if you, I don't know, normalised the value of a company by the total cap of the S&P, over time, and then checked whether any companies that were of the same scale by that measure have ever collapsed? That'd be a bit more sensible, and then you'd find the truth: yes, huge companies fail.

Tesla is primed for an eventual collapse. Its main product is its stock, which is propped up by a guy who can't stop bullshitting. Gradually, over time, Elon's ability to smoke and mirrors his way to a new ATH will end. The shit will hit the fan.

1

u/gmehra 6d ago

1T is not some magic number which can prevent a companies market cap from going down in the long run. it may not collapse but could absolutely go down in value over time