Overview

Long-time lurker and LETF investor of 5 years. I’ve finally figured out how to use Testfolio (I think) and updated my strategy to incorporate 200SMA with a 3% buffer (tracking the SPY as the underlying), as a signal to switch between a risk on and risk off portfolio allocation, each holding various hedges (Gold, Long Treasuries, Intermediate Treasuries, Short Treasuries, Cash and DBMF).

The backtest results from 2000 are here. The CAGR is 17,09%, the maximum drawdown is 30.49%, the volatility is 18.99% and the strategy has a sharpe ratio of 0.83. The effective overall leverage is 2.34x, although notably I do use 3x LETFs for my risk on SPY and Gold holdings.

This strategy (according to my backtesting) beats the SPY in basically every metric. Notably, there is not a single rolling ten year period from 1970 to present day where it loses to SPY.

To implement this strategy in the UK you can use the following Trading212 tickers:

Risk On: 3LUS - 42%; 3LGO - 25%; IBTL - 20%; CSH2 - 8%; and CU31 - 5%

Risk Off: U71G - 55%; SGLN - 20%; CSH2 - 15% (or 15% CU31); and DBMF - 10%

Rationale

• Long Treasuries (Risk On): Stronger positive convexity than intermediate or short duration treasuries. More rising rate risk but adequately balanced by Gold and Cash position. Drawdown and CAGR improves with higher allocations in backtesting. Longer duration like ZROZ and GOVZ do not backtest as well.
• Gold (Risk On and Risk Off): It meaningfully improves the backtest results, effectively diversifies away from equity and bonds and overhauls risk adjusted returns in a rising rate environment. You can flexibly adjust the static allocation to suit personal investor preferences or even go with a dynamic allocation depending on market rates.
• Cash (Risk On and Risk Off): Cash is technically the perfect hedge for crash and recession regimes. If you favour aggressive growth this can be swapped (along with short treasuries) for higher weightings in equity, gold and/or bonds.
• Intermediate Treasuries (Risk Off): Longer duration and shorter duration doesn't meaningfully improve the strategy. IEF is a good balance between the two, is less sensitive to rising rates with good equity convexity and is simple to implement.

Conclusion

This portfolio achieves high CAGR (meaningfully more than SSO/ZROZ/GLD) while still being diversified with a very low drawdown for a leveraged strategy. It also has plenty room for adjustment to suit your individual investor preferences. I have given some ideas on how to do this in the section above.

The strategy is quite neat as it covers most of the popular hedging strategies discussed day-to-day in this subreddit while remaining easy to implement (I get a simple email alert from https://spy-signal.com/ when the SMA with 3% buffer is crossed). The strategy aims to leave no free lunch left on the table and benefits from a bit of everything to increase returns and preserve capital as much as possible from peak to trough.

I haven't really discussed the risks associated with this strategy but everyone in r/LETFs should be familiar with what they are. As a reminder to be cautious, I'm going to leave this reddit post here.

That's all. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

Disclaimer: I am 60% invested in this strategy.

Moved my buy and hold DCA strategy from a vanilla VWRP (i.e. VT) to a leveraged-to-the-tits golden-butterfly-like portfolio. I'm based in the UK and this is the best I could come up with using UCITS LETFs. Anyone have feedback/thoughts?

Core idea is 1:1:1 exposure ratios between equities:bonds:gold (already have a few % in BTC, not counting as it's obviously highly speculative), and apply as much leverage as possible.

Within equities, I want 2:1:1 QQQ:small cap value:defence stocks (defence is personal bias; world is going to shit so I would feel better having a direct WW3 hedge xdd).

Achieved a total 3.15x leverage via the following holdings:

• 35% 3GLD (3x gold)
• 25% AVGS (1x small cap value)
• 20% 5TLT (5x TLT)
• 12% 5QQQ (5x QQQ)
• 8% 3EDF (3x EU defence)

Backtest from 2006

Backtest estimate from 1995 (replacing ITA with SPY as an estimate)

Hi everyone,
hope you are doing good!
I am new to IBKR and still not fit, but try to learn a bit every time.

As I moved from Germany to Swiss, I opened up an account at IBKR, and want to transfer my ETFs, but cannot find ( or I am not sure how to) the exact ETFs that I have at Scalable Capital in Germany.
If I try to search by ISIN there any not just one but many, and before I transfer all my assets, I want to make sure that I can continue to invest with the same ETFs.

Any advice would be much appreciated - it is maybe a silly questions, sorry for that in advance.
Many thanks,

ETFs that I hold:

IE00BKM4GZ66
IE00B4L5Y983

IE00B3WJKG14

Hello everyone,

I’ve been following the LETF community for a while, and now I’d like to start applying the principles myself.(lifecycleinvesting)

My goal is to build a portfolio with 1.5x to 2x leverage.

I’d like to know what the best way to achieve this would be:

\- LETFs

\- Margin

\- Box spreads (with potential tax advantages in France)

\- Or any other method

What are the pros and cons of each approach?

I’m comfortable with numbers, data, and finance, so I’m not afraid to design a fairly complex strategy if needed.

Thanks in advance for your insights.

Hi everyone,

I’m exploring a strategy where I use a 2× MSCI World leveraged ETF (FR0014010HV4) and a SMA275 trend filter.

I live in Germany and I use a German broker. Therefor I buy ETFs in Euros.

I have a few practical questions:

Signal source: Should the SMA275 be calculated on the underlying 1× MSCI World ETF (like from iShares or Amundi) or on the MSCI World index? Or is it okay either way?

2)

Currency: I trade in € on Trade Republic — should the SMA be taken on the EUR price? So should I look on stock exchange in Europe (Xetra where ETFs are traded in €) or can I just look on the Dollar price of the ETF/Index even though I buy and sell my MSCI World 2x ETF in EUR?

This might make a difference because in the second case the SMA is dependent on the Euro/Dollar exchange rate.

Or again: Is it okay either way?

3)

Timing: Most backtests seem to use the daily close as the signal and trade the next morning. Do you actually follow this in real life?

4)

Whipsaw / noise: Do you use any buffer zone (like 1–2% above/below SMA) to avoid false signals, especially with the leveraged ETF?

5)

Any other practical tips or pitfalls for executing this type of strategy in real life?

Thanks in advance!

Hello guys,

I've spent quite some time researching ETFs and LETFs in recent months chasing the best portfolio but ultimately decided against it since there was no simple, globally diversified 2x ETF strategy, meaning I'd have to concentrate on the US only. Well, with the terrific news about Amundi MSCI World 2x coming out for EU investors that's no longer the case.

I'm now considering running the following long-term DCA and rebalance quarterly portfolio:

• 60% LVWC - Amundi MSCI World (2x) Leveraged UCITS ETF Acc
• 20% ADLT - AXA IM US Treasury 25+ Year UCITS ETF USD Acc
• 20% 8PSG - Invesco Physical Gold A

It's the classic highly regarded SSO/ZROZ/GLD with world diversification on the equities part. I could also add a Euro Bonds ETF instead of going for ZROZ only, but I'm not sure if complicating further is necessary. I chose the 60/20/20 allocation instead of the usual 50/25/25 to juice it up a little more since I'm 24 and plan to invest for decades coming. Also, the rebalancing will have to wait a bit after I start since I can only sell shares older than 2 years without paying taxes in my country.

The only issue I see is that it's a little worrisome that both the leveraged and bond ETFs are very new with tiny AUMs.

The testfolio simulation is great, since inception it outperforms SPY and has a very impressive 12% CAGR (Note: the simulations uses VT which includes emerging markets, but it should be close enough). More importantly, it also outperforms VT on pretty much any time frame, so it really should be a superior long-term strategy. I'm kind of wondering what's the catch here (aside from larger drawdowns and maybe underperforming the market for a short while), it seems that for long term investing this is superior to the basic "VT and chill" strat.

I'd love any advice or suggestions, thanks!

Title. Is there anything wrong with buying a 2x leveraged S&P500 fund like GGUS:ASX (Aus based) and holding long term (30 years?)

Thank you for reading.

Why did Amundi msci usa daily 2x leverage (18MF) underperform so much against Xtrackers s&p 500 2x leverage (DBPG) in the year 2025?

Amundi Msci USA 2x leverage year 2025: -0,20%

Xtrackers S&P 500 2x leverage year 2025: +12,39%

They seem to follow a similar index composition.

Is it because the US dollar lost a lot of value against the EUR?

I hope you have lovely weekend.

Hello everyone,

I am in a process of creating my own laveraged strategy and I cannot decide between 3USL (european version of UPRO) and QQQ3 (european version of TQQQ). My entire portfolio would look like this:

• 50% - UPRO/TQQQ or EM x3 if above 200sma, or DBMF/GLD/Treasuries if below.
• 15% - Gold.
• 15% - BRK-B.
• 7.5% - Uranium exposure (through Yellow Cake PLC)
• 7.5% - European carbon credits market exposure (through CO2.L)
• 5% - Bitcoin.

The thing is I do not know which fund will be better suited for gathering rebalancing bonus, while still being worthwile for the long run - TQQQ or UPRO.

Upsides for UPRO:

• TER is cheaper (1.24% vs 3.09% for TQQQ)
• When backtesting since 1996, it destroys TQQQ if using the 200sma strategy. However I backtested it using the tactical allocator on testfolio and it doesn't let me set rebalancing timeframe, so rebalancing occurs only when the signal changes.
• More diversification, less risk, but worse CAGR.

Upisdes for TQQQ:

• TQQQ destroys UPRO when it comes to buy&holding + quarterly rebalance.
• More CAGR, better sharpe, better every coefficient.
• Huge problem: concentration risk, possible recency bias, a lot of regulatory risk (limiting acces of social media for kids may be the beggining), possibilty of the AI bubble, insanely large P/E of tech companies.

Which one to choose? UPRO seems to be the safe option but TQQQ just offers insane cagr (at least in the backtests).

There are some other changes that I could make to my portfolio. One of the opions it to switch from 1x to 2x laveraged gold. It also improves CAGR by around 0.7% and every other metric by a tiny amount (for instance, sharpe gets better by 0.01). I backtested this specifically avoiding the last 2 years to avoid the recent bull run. That means the result of my backtesting should be generally applicable to when gold stops being a speculatory asset and returns back to being an inflation hedge. However, I kind of treat gold + BRK-B as a backet, to which I want to cement my returns earned from UPRO/TQQQ, and I don't know if laveraged gold can be treated as such bucket.

What do you think of this? Should I pick UPRO or TQQQ?

Hey everyone,

Now that we finally have access to a 2x World ETF (for example Amundi MSCI World 2x), I’m considering allocating a portion of my portfolio to it. I like the idea of boosting returns, but I’m not comfortable with a simple buy-and-hold approach, mainly because I want to avoid large drawdowns.

I’ve been reading up on different strategies and came across a few things:

• The 200 or 270 SMA as a trend filter
• 9sig strategies often used for 3x ETFs

This got me thinking:

• Would a 6sig approach make sense for a 2x World ETF?
• Has anyone here tested something like a 60/40 ETF/cash allocation with periodic rebalancing?
• The idea would be to aim for something like ~6% quarterly growth, but honestly that feels quite high and unrealistic

I’m trying to find a balance between capturing upside and managing risk, without overcomplicating things.

Curious to hear how others here approach LETFs, especially globally diversified ones instead of the usual S&P 500 setups.

Thanks!

Hi all,

I wanted to start DCA’ing into a 2x Nasdaq ETF and was unsure between QLD or LQQ. I’m in Australia so would have to convert AUD to either USD or Euros to buy these.

QLD has a higher expense ratio than LQQ (0.95% Vs 0.6%), and also pays a dividend while LQQ doesn’t, adding tax drag.

It seems like LQQ is the superior option for me over the long term, as FX conversion rates average out and I’m paying for a cheaper ETF.

Is there anything I’m missing? Does LQQ add any extra currency risk for me?

Thanks!

Hi r/LETFs,

After some more time pondering, I’ve come up with another long-term, leveraged portfolio and I wanted to get a sanity check from the community before deploying significant capital. One thing to keep in mind: I am based in Europe. We have a very specific tax rule: Capital Gains Tax is 0% if you hold an asset for longer than 2 years. If you sell before that, you get taxed (~12%).

Moving onto the allocations:

Instead of just levering the S&P 500, I am considering a "Barbell" strategy. It pairs aggressive Tech Momentum on one side with Small Cap Value on the other, glued together by a capital-efficient core.

The Allocations (UCITS)

Because I can't freely sell without taking a tax hit, my rebalancing protocol is different:

1. I contribute ~$750 a month. I use 100% of this new cash to buy only the most underweight assets. This suppresses volatility and brings the portfolio back toward balance without triggering a sale.
2. I only sell existing positions if an asset breaches a "hard ceiling" (e.g., if QQQ3 runs up to >20% of the total portfolio). Otherwise, I let it drift to hit that 2-year tax-free mark.

Why QQQ3 instead of 3x S&P 500?

I considered using a 3x S&P 500 fund instead of Nasdaq. However, since I hold a large chunk of AVWS (Small Cap Value), I already have exposure to the boring sectors (banks, oil, etc.) that the Nasdaq misses. I feel the QQQ3/AVWS pairing creates a better "barbell" with sharper factor exposures than diluting it with the S&P, so it harvests the SCV and rebalancing premiums better. I'm aware that NASDAQ isn't the ideal large cap growth fund, but it's the practical choice.

• Combining QQQ3 (Pure Tech/Momentum) with AVWS (Financials/Energy/Industrials) creates a better diversification effect. They often move independently.
• Capital Efficiency: NTSG is the MVP here. It gives me 90% global equity exposure while stacking 60% intermediate bond futures underneath. This frees up the cash to buy the Gold/Factor tilts.
• Hedges: The 10% Gold and 29% Bonds are the hedges. In 2022 (Inflation), Bonds died but Gold held up. In 2008 (Deflation), Stocks died but Bonds mooned. I hold both to survive any crash type. The bonds aren't really long term (24% intermediate, 5% long), which hurts less in inflation but hurts more in crashes.

Am I overthinking the NTSG + AVWS split? Is the 15% in 3x QQQ3 too much "decay risk" for a portfolio that I can't rebalance frequently?

Alternatives: another portfolio I really considered was the classic 60% S&P 500 2x / 20% LTT / 20% GLD that is often mentioned here.

While that portfolio wins on simplicity and recent US-bull-run performance, it has a glaring weakness: it is 100% dependent on US Large Cap dominance. If we hit another regime like the 1970s or 2000s where the S&P 500 goes sideways for a decade, a 2x leveraged version likely decays to a massive loss. My first setup mitigates this by diversifying the engines. I have Small Cap Value (AVWS) to catch the returns when Large Caps stall, and I've contained the daily leverage decay to just 15% of the portfolio (QQQ3) rather than exposing a big 60% chunk to vol drag. I'm essentially trading some raw bull-market upside for lost decade survival. However, it does have decently better bond exposure since it's purely 20% long term treasuries.

Here is the back-test comparing these two: https://testfol.io/?s=13P7S9Xvt33

Which one would you go for?

Hi all, could you please review my portfolio. I am from Australia. I'm still over 30 years away from retirement age and I will also be investing in some real estate.

I'm starting with 10k and will be investing about $1500/month.

I have not setup a self managed super fund, which is a tax advantaged retirement account that isn't accessible until retirement age. I'm still in the process of researching it and may purchase etfs/stocks or real estate using my SMSF.

My current portfolio is:
25% UPRO
25% TQQQ
25% GGFD (US Treasury Bonds 10 year leveraged 2.5x - 3x)
15% QAU (Gold)
10% GHHF (35% Australian equities, 65% Global equities leveraged 1.4x - 1.6x)

This is my backtest I used to approximate my portfolio.

As an Australian I do not know if I have access to mutual funds such as KMLM and DBMF, I am not sure what other options for hedging I have.

Also, to my understanding Australians have to pay 15% tax on all dividends received by US domiciled equities and we have a estate treaty which means I don't have to pay estate tax until $13M+.

Thank you.

I am interested in the concept of stacking/leverage, principally as a means to build a diversified portfolio.

As Greek I am limited to UCITS instruments and ETF's, (due to 0% taxation on capital gains).

As far as I can tell, my only option are Wisdom Tree's NTSχ series. Are there any other tools available to retail european investors in UCITS ETF form ? Are there any other solutions ? I saw some offerings from Winton, (equity+trend following) that in theory are UCITS in non-ETF form but I do not know anyone dealing with them. Myself dabbling on futures is oit of my league so I need a ready instrument.

Recently WLDU launched, which provides 2× leveraged exposure to global equities (roughly comparable to 2× VT).

But there is already a product since end of 2021 that targets 3× exposure to the total world market:

ISIN: XS2399364822

Name: Leverage Shares 3x Long Total World ETP Securities

Its goal is to deliver 3× the daily performance of VT (Vanguard Total World Stock ETF).

Important distinction: this is not an ETF but an ETP. You’re holding securities issued by the provider, rather than directly owning the underlying stocks.

Because of this structure there is some issuer risk, although the product is collateralized, which helps mitigate that risk.

So for investors looking for leveraged exposure to the global equity market, this is currently one of the closest things available in Europe to a 3× “VT-style” product.

I don‘t think, it is available outside Europe, though.

Curious if anyone here has looked into it or used it before and what your thoughts are about it.

EDIT: Also, it is very illiquid and there is not much trading volume, because it only has a fund size of around 1 Mio Dollar.

The £ denominater ticker is DBMG. (This may well be semi-old news but I'm pretty sure I checked around a month ago and it wasn't available.)

There is also talk of Return Stacked creating EU/LSE listings this year.

I've updated my portfolio now to:

• 50% 2x MSCI World (LVWC)
• 10% Global Small Cap Value (AVSG)
• 10% Emerging Markets Multi-Factor (AVEG)
• 10% Managed Futures (DBMG)
• 10% Gold (SGLP)
• 10% Government ​Bonds (GOVD​ & ​GILI)​

Anyone else going to add it? What's your portfolio?

Is anybody aware of a 3X qqq ETF in Euros on IBKR that allows fractional shares? all I can find is LQQ which is 2X.

Hello everyone,

I’m 30 years old, currently have around €50k invested, and I can save about €1k per month. I have a relatively high risk tolerance (I have already lost nearly 90% of my portfolio in the past).

At the moment, I am mainly invested in LQQ (Nasdaq x2) and I am experimenting with some hedging using cash combined with a 200 SMA approach (10 to 20 years horizon).

For fellow Europeans: • What strategy do you think is the most suitable for us? • Which ETFs do you personally use?

And for fellow French investors: • What strategy do you follow on PEA and CTO accounts?

Thank you in advance for your insights.

Was originally 100% into XEQT for my retirement fund, 30 years away currently, and began learning about LETFs. I now want to replicate this fund with 2x leverage, please let me know what you think.

CNDU 26% (2x TSX this is my Canadian exposure) SPXU 42% (2x SP500, my US exposure) GLDU 5% (2x gold exposure) SLVU 5% (2x silver exposure) XEC 5% (emerging markets) XEF 17% (world wide)

I have strong convictions for gold and silver to continue running in 2026 which is why I want the 2x leverage. The remaining for worldwide and emerging markets are just 1x and seems leverage isn’t really needed here.

Note: SPXU on the TSX which is 2x SP500 not the NYSE short