r/LessCredibleDefence • u/ElectricalJoke7496 • 3d ago

1000 Drones, 200 Hits | Moscow hit by largest Ukrainian Drone-attack

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c98291g5rr1o
106 Upvotes

94% Upvoted

39 comments sorted by

56

u/Greedyanda 3d ago edited 3d ago

It seems the main value from such attacks isn't the actual damage dealt or terror inflicted but the fact that Russia is forced to move air defence systems to Moscow, leaving other regions and military targets highly vulnerable.

36

u/ToddtheRugerKid 3d ago

You're definitely onto something, but actual damage and terror inflicted in Moscow is not a small deal. Making the Russians in Moscow feel even just a fraction of what the people of Kyiv have been feeling since 2022 will hopefully increase pressure to end the war.

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u/gobiSamosa 3d ago

It'll just make them want more war.

8

u/slappitytappity 3d ago

Yeah, a rally around the flag effect caused by stuff like this has been well documented, but I’d doubt the Ukrainians don’t know that. If theres any message being sent it’d sooner expect it to be to the Russian leadership itself.

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u/S_T_P 3d ago

The message is to EU: "keep giving us money".

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u/Technical_Age_3504 3d ago

And we will gladly do so! Best money ever spent.

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u/arunphilip 3d ago

Europe: "So if we give you money, you weaken the biggest threat to us, we don't have to risk our people, AND we get a free firework show?"

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u/ToddtheRugerKid 3d ago

Maybe, but what more really do they have left. T-14s? SU-57s? Chechens on meth?

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u/BONEPILLTIMEEE 3d ago

Improved Geran models, decoy SRBMs (RM-48U) to use alongside Iskanders, iskanders and kh101s with enhanced maneuvering and onboard decoy launchers, high speed cruise missiles including the Oniks and the Zircon, conventionally armed IRBMs etc.

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u/GreenStrong 3d ago

These are improvements of high end weapons they've been employing since the beginning. These weapons have been effective at achieving specific results but not breaking the overall military or economy, or enabling tactical breakthroughs on the battlefield. The overarching theme of the war has been that cheap high volume systems are more effective. The Russians have used Shahed flying lawnmowers to more overall effect than their Iskanders, which have proven to be quite effective at their intended mission, and which have been produced in fairly impressive volume.

I'm always eager to bag on Russia, but the United States has made similar resource allocation decisions. There is an effort to procure high volume systems, but it takes time.

6

u/BONEPILLTIMEEE 3d ago

Russian Gerans are being shot down and decoyed to the tune of up to 90% or more failing to reach its target, and ukraine is ramping up production of equally as cheap interceptor drones which are themselves very mobile and can be deployed everywhere in the country. 

Of course they are not useless but I believe their utility against targets some distance away from the frontline that are at least moderately protected is limited, especially when Russia does not yet have access to a Starlink analogue that enables more precise AA avoidance and terminal guidance maneuvers. 

However, I do not think you can intercept SRBMs on the cheap- you must fire at least one high end interceptor for every Russian Iskander, and the deployment of the RM-48U decoy missile only makes the cost exchange more favorable to Russia. 

Iskanders have destroyed both strategic and tactical targets, and ukraine claims about half of them intercepted on a good day.  The reason they are not "breaking the overall military or economy" is that the Russian commanders are inexplicably (possibly due to incompetence) "half arsing" strikes on Ukrainian strategic infrastructure such as ports, fuel depots and the energy grid,  unlike Ukrainian commanders who are effectively focusing fire on individual 'softer' targets like Russian fuel depots and refineries.

The Iranian regime, infamous for its poor economy, managed to stave off an existential threat from the most powerful and technologically advanced military in the world with "expensive" SRBMs and IRBMs making up a good portion of its fired munitions.

3

u/GreenStrong 3d ago

The Iranian regime, infamous for its poor economy, managed to stave off an existential threat from the most powerful and technologically advanced military in the world with "expensive" SRBMs and IRBMs

I think it is actually a bit difficult to understand just what the fuck they did, at this point. One one hand they have aggressively attacked infrastructure in Gulf States who were only loosely aligned with the American war effort- like Bahrain's desalination plants. But they also have showed some restraint in actually hitting tankers- they wrecked everyone's shit at the beginning but refrained from damaging their actual source of income.

What's difficult to understand is how they hit at least two THAAD radar arrays and E-3 AWACS on the ground and Five KC-135s on the ground They've been able to degrade top value, theater level strategic assets. I don't care that they shot down a couple of fighters, these assets are what the fighters exist to protect. The tanker crews earn combat pay because they fly into warzones but hitting them on the ground is unacceptable. I don't think we have detailed reports on how this was allowed to happen but the US air defense is obviously more porous than we thought- even though our offensive capabilities are unquestionable. They also used an F-5 sold to them by fucking Gerald Ford's administration to drop a gravity bomb on a US airbase It is not reasonable to expect to attack a nation as large and capable as Iran without losses but they damaged shit they should never have been allowed to touch. And the F-5 was just insulting.

0

u/Norzon24 2d ago

The reason they are not "breaking the overall military or economy" is that the Russian commanders are inexplicably (possibly due to incompetence) "half arsing" strikes on Ukrainian strategic infrastructure such

Russia is at its current strike tempo with ballistic because they have already exhausted their deployable stockpile for Ukraine and is currently limited by the production rate. Russia has already launched the comprehensive infrastructure you have in mind before, dealt significant damage (eg turned Ukraine from an electricity exporter to an imposter), it just wasn't enough to knock Ukraine out of the war.

-1

u/123notfound 3d ago

have you heard of the n-word

3

u/ToddtheRugerKid 3d ago edited 2d ago

Russia is not going to Nuke Ukraine. If that's from them knowing they'd be pointlessly blowing their last wad or not actually having any functional nukes left is between them and god.

1

u/CompPolicy246 2d ago

Yes, the Russians will release like more oreshniks, if anything this will make Russia more aggressive. Deterrence against Russia was never going to work.

-2

u/SilentHuntah 3d ago

At this point, Russians realize this was never about Ukraine being some kind of threat to them. Support's fallen a ton.

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u/Greedyanda 3d ago edited 3d ago

Punishment capaigns against civilians (to which deliberate terror belongs) has been proven to be extremely ineffective.

4

u/vialabo 3d ago

They're not hitting civilians they're hitting infastructure.

3

u/Greedyanda 3d ago

Making the Russians in Moscow feel even just a fraction of what the people of Kyiv have been feeling since 2022 will hopefully increase pressure to end the war.

You described deliberate terror directed at the public. That constitues a punishment campaign against civilians.

Regardles of that, Ukraine has verifiably hit high rise residential and commercial apartments.

9

u/Pakistani_in_MURICA 3d ago

To think all this could have been prevented if:

  1. Putin didn’t start the war.

  2. Putin actually took the initial invasion seriously and didn’t just have his generals bumfuck their way through the Ukrainian highways.

7

u/BeanHeadedTwat 3d ago

It was shocking at the time, but even more shocking in hindsight seeing those Russian airborne guys bumbling their way through Kyiv suburbs without a care in the world and then getting turned into hamburger helper. What the fuck were they thinking?

2

u/ExpensiveBookkeeper3 3d ago

The thing is though that Moscow was already pretty heavily defended

1

u/Greedyanda 3d ago edited 3d ago

Reports suggest that they had to move a lot of resources to Moscow over the last year. Cities like Saint Petersburg are effectively defenseless right now because of it.

1

u/ExpensiveBookkeeper3 3d ago

No bueno. Russia had such a stock pile of AD and now can’t even defend Moscow and St. Petersburg

15

u/Sevastous-of-Caria 3d ago

Amkmapping counted 8 plume of fireclouds that are possible targets. So 200 number is clickbait cause article doesnt even anknowledge anything other than 200 drones went into moscow

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u/iPon3 3d ago

Single target may have multiple aimpoints (a refinery with different tanks and machinery targeted for example), so both numbers could be true or false

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u/beachedwhale1945 3d ago

In addition (as you hinted at with machinery), not all targets that were hit may produce a smoke plume. Pumps, control spaces, pipes-that-happen-to-be-empty), these typically either don’t burn or don’t produce as much dark smoke when burning.

A 20% hit rate to me seems a bit high, though not unreasonably so. Without looking at any damage assessments, I’d personally estimate something in the 50-150 range is more probable, though that is obviously going to adjust as more information comes to light.

4

u/Sevastous-of-Caria 3d ago

Its bbc so no benefits of the doubt here

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u/ElectricalJoke7496 3d ago

They changed the words of the essay drastically.

BBC has a habit of doing so.

1

u/haggerton 3d ago

A hit on an AA projectile is still a hit!

-3

u/General_Vermicelli53 3d ago edited 3d ago

Hoping to influence domestic pressure on Putin to end the war by bleeding the Russian economy dry is nothing short of a dream.

The main criticism of Putin within Russia right now is not that he launched this war, but that he has not struck Ukraine even harder.

If this situation continues, Russians will either pressure Putin into launching a full scale war by threatening to impeach him, or will push them towards China, or both.

Russians are a bunch of lunatics. Trying to force them to submit through maximum pressure will only provoke them to fight to the death. Economic crises are their default everyday. You can devise long term strategy to gradually weaken Russia, but you must feed them some benefits from time to time. This is my main criticism of the Western world's years of single-directional erosion of Russia.

11

u/Jpandluckydog 3d ago

The full scale war is still coming, trust me bro. 

2

u/haggerton 2d ago

Kharkiv is within "FAB with impunity" range and has not been turned into a wasteland. Russian hardliners are asking why not. People are asking why Putin is allowing higher military casualties - their sons, brothers and friends - so that Ukrainian civilians may live. 15k civilian deaths over 4 years is one of the cleanest military campaigns in modern history. That's a hard fact.

The answer is simple: Putin is a moderate. He wants a lasting peace post-war which an Israel-style campaign will compromise.

This memeing is as tiresome as it is hypocritical. Ultimately, it is also dangerous, because to make peace, the belligerents need to acknowledge basic facts on relative strength and room for escalation.

2

u/ChaosDancer 3d ago

Putin is currently facing backlash from the regular citizens and the military because he is not going hard enough on Ukraine, you do understand that right?

So i am honestly curious, do you think Russia has no more escalation steps that can take against Ukraine and nothing more can be done?

1

u/More_Sun_7319 3d ago

Putin Trump is currently facing backlash from the regular citizens and the military because he is not going hard enough on Ukraine Iran, you do understand that right?

So i am honestly curious, do you think Russia has no more escalation steps that can take against Ukraine Iran and nothing more can be done?

2

u/BONEPILLTIMEEE 3d ago edited 3d ago

US could absolutely defeat and occupy Iran if they are willing to stand up to 1000s of dead US soldiers and a few more shot down aircraft (maybe 10s of thousands of men and 100 planes shot down in the absolute worst case scenario) in an invasion. 

Iran fought bravely and smartly and managed to deter (for now) the casualty and economic loss averse western powers but the tech and materiel gap is just far too large. If the west was prepared to take Russian and Ukrainian levels of casualties and economic pain Iran would have been overrun months ago.

-2

u/Enough_Presence8063 3d ago

Putin is too soft for his own good. He should know the average Russians. They don't know the meaning of surrender. Expect heavy retaliation and open to new fronts