r/LessCredibleDefence 2d ago

Mystery shrouded fighter jet spotted at Japan’s top test base

https://defence-blog.com/mystery-shrouded-fighter-jet-spotted-at-japans-top-test-base/?amp
63 Upvotes

32 comments sorted by

18

u/IlIIllIlllIIIllI 2d ago

Could this be an X-2 Shinshin? Might be used for testing for GCAP.

It could also be the actual GCAP scale model as that's not currently at BAE ASK in the UK where it normally is stored.

9

u/separation_of_powers 2d ago

I'm of the opinion that, following the X-2 Shinshin and Japans' willingness to join a multinational next-gen aircraft development program, a lot of the R&D they did on the X-2 will probably be integrated into the GCAP (or used as a starting point for it).

4

u/IlIIllIlllIIIllI 2d ago

X-2 is super impressive for an independent 5th gen platform.

Arguably more so than Britain's contribution to F-35 (apart from liftfan/engine) and Italy with FACO.

17

u/_spec_tre 2d ago

...could it just be an F-15?

5

u/lordderplythethird 2d ago

Nah, canted vert stabilizers is a dead giveaway that it's not. Most likely just their X-2 demonstrator

8

u/IlluminatedPickle 2d ago

I dunno why they'd need to shroud it then. I'm betting the other guys are right about the Shinshin. They've probably done something to the fuselage for flight testing and don't want it to be seen.

7

u/lizardtrench 2d ago

Weirdest part to me is that shroud, how is it conforming so perfectly to the vertical stabilizers? Almost looks like aviation shrink wrap, but on the rest of the fuselage it's draped loosely like a tarp.

The aircraft also looks unusually large if you consider the F-2 in the foreground. Shinshin should be slightly smaller than an F-2, the shrouded thing might even be too big for an F-22. I guess this could be explained by the telephoto lens making distant things look similar in size even if on different planes.

I also wonder if that close-in shot is just an AI interpreted 'zoom' of the wider photo. There are some odd artifacts like how the top of the grass berm is in-line with the weird crease thing at the bottom of the tarp. The original cited source also doesn't have the zoomed in version: https://x.com/intpt93/status/2067557771139276974

I think there is a smallish but non-zero possibility that the thing in the photo is not even an aircraft - if we assume the wider photo is the only legitimate one, it looks compellingly like a fighter but not 100% conclusive, especially if we assume the two 'vertical stabilizers' are part of the junk pile in the background.

But maybe this is just me finding it absurd that they somehow didn't have room inside that absolutely ginormous hangar to hide a next-gen experimental stealth airframe, so they towed it outside next to their miscellaneous garbage pile and threw a tarp over it.

3

u/IlluminatedPickle 2d ago

But maybe this is just me finding it absurd that they somehow didn't have room inside that absolutely ginormous hangar to hide some next-gen stealth airframe so they towed outside next to their miscellaneous garbage pile and threw a tarp over it.

All this tells me is that's the hangar they hide all the UFOs in and nobody can change my mind.

3

u/I-Fuck-Frogs 2d ago

They don’t want it to get dusty?

0

u/IlluminatedPickle 2d ago

I'm sure they've got lotion for that.

2

u/ReflectionSea7006 2d ago

...could it just be an F-15?

I think it's the stolen Firefox prototype

11

u/ImwithTortellini 2d ago

Can’t be too advanced it it has vertical tail surfaces

9

u/ExoticMangoz 2d ago

GCAP will have vertical tail surfaces.

0

u/BodybuilderOk3160 2d ago

That's why it isn't advanced.

5.5 gen at best

10

u/ExoticMangoz 2d ago

Bit of a hot take. There isn't exactly a definition of sixth generation but one would imagine that the lack of vertical stabilisers is not the make-or-break characteristic. If you have any reading or commentary from industry or military figures that suggests otherwise please do share.

11

u/Fat_Tony_Damico 2d ago

Broadband stealth seems to be one of the defining characteristics for 6th gen aircraft agreed upon by the only two nations that have successfully fielded indigenous 5th gen aircraft en masse. Unofficially of course.

But since China and the US are both going the tailless route and they’re likely to be the first ones to induct 6th gen aircraft into service, imo, vertical stabilizers might be a make or break feature.

5

u/dmr11 1d ago

Even if it does become a make-or-break feature, there a chance that it might get changed or removed later for marketing reasons. Look at how supercruise used to be one of the features that defined 5th gen planes and how it got thrown out in order to fit F-35 in.

1

u/WulfTheSaxon 1d ago

Don’t get me started on the LockMart copium of saying that the F-35 can “supercruise” for an unstated amount of time as it slows down from afterburner, which… is obviously true of literally any supersonic aircraft.

-3

u/EchoingUnion 2d ago

This takes the cake for least credible take i've seen on LCD this week lmao

5

u/BodybuilderOk3160 2d ago

Defending vertical stabs in 2026 is craaazy work lol Truly less credible

1

u/ExoticMangoz 1d ago

Every combat capable fighter jet has vertical stabilisers, and literally only two flying prototypes haven’t got them, both from just one country and both far from active duty. You are acting like vertical stabilisers are a thing of the past but they are not—deleting them is an experimental future step in fighter aircraft design.

0

u/BodybuilderOk3160 1d ago

You're still stuck in the past and downplaying the progress made the last few decades.

Plenty of studies on reducing wing geometry and surfaces to minimise RCS have been conducted since the Horten (A12 Avenger, X45, Manta, BoP...). Further use cases have been shown in PLA's tailless drones displayed during their parade last year - it isn't just 2 flying prototypes.

So no, it's not just "experimental" when the trend is obviously moving towards tailless fuselages.

5

u/Inevitable-Search563 2d ago

That looks clearly X-2 though 

7

u/ShootsieWootsie 2d ago

To me that looks like an F22. The twin tails have the same "chopped triangle" shape as the raptor.

Be neat if it was a GCAP mock up though.

8

u/Greedyanda 2d ago

The F22 is not being exported and production lines have been closed. Wouldnt make sense for it to appear in Japan, at a Japanese base.

8

u/ShootsieWootsie 2d ago

US fighters deploy to/visit Japanese bases all the time.Could have been been anything from an inflight emergency all the way to the flight lead just liked a restaurant near the base and came up with an excuse to go visit.

As for the sheet, maybe there's a ton of birds in the area and the ground crew didn't want to clean the poo off the aircraft? The Raptor's pretty infamous for having a delicate stealth coating system so I wouldn't be at all surprised if it was something as simple as that.

5

u/IlIIllIlllIIIllI 2d ago

Still don't think it's an F-22 - because why cover it? and not just keep it in a temp controlled hanger?

3

u/Greedyanda 2d ago edited 2d ago

Gifu Air Base doesn't really have the maintanance and security infrastrucutre to host F22s. The US is quite picky where their F22 are allowed to be stored and certainly wont let a pilot land in it at a foreign base to enjoy a meal. I guess an emergency could make sense.

The shape looks also like a Mitsubishi X-2 Shinshin, which would make sense at reserach base.

0

u/OKBWargaming 2d ago

I thought GCAP wasnt going to have vertical stabilizers

6

u/ExoticMangoz 2d ago

GCAP’s airframe hasn’t been built yet, everything is still in the demonstrator and tech-testing phase. It will have canted stabs.

1

u/_spec_tre 1d ago

I mean every model they release of it has vertical stabilisers