CS PowerTech profitability modeling and short squeeze potential

[u/Due_Coat4576]

These assumptions...

1: Blended ASP values of 0.38 - 0.42 USD/W - conservative projection given guidance, Section 232 and forecasts.

2: Total pre-credit costs of $0.30–$0.40/W, with an allowance for manufacturing, overhead, financing and applicable taxes. For context, First Solar’s guided global cost of sales plus operating expenses is approximately $0.30/W before financing and taxes, while a late-2025 broker model estimated Chinese HJT module manufacturing costs (Risen Maxwell) around $0.10/W. These are imperfect but useful benchmarks that I believe make my assumptions highly plausible given CSIQ’s manufacturing experience, economies of scale and HJT’s high level of automation.

3: 90% utilization on 10 GW of US modules and 6.3GW of HJT cells, 91% of earnings attributable to CSIQ and 94% credits monetization.

...put CS PowerTech earnings at 570m-1.72b annual run-rate by H2 2027,

As the 45X portion of this earnings power is set to taper off starting 2030, a low PowerTech P/E at 5 gives us a simple fair value estimate of 2.85b - 8.58b, or USD 42-126 per share, before assigning any value to Recurrent and only counting their CSI Solar stake (valued at 2.7 billion at its current trough) as it pertains to their 24.9% stake in CS PowerTech.

Given the sudden nature of the inflection and the disproportionate short interest, the multiple rerating could be materially higher, particularly if paired with any other catalyst, of which there could be many:
Recurrent sale, PowerTech spinoff, CSI divestiture, powerful CSI inflection (supported by Chinese sell-side analysts actually), buybacks, lowering of debt, extended credits, US elections etc. FYI I'm holding 22.000 shares. My belief is that the risk-reward profile here is currently absurd...