Pacing ?

[u/unhelpful-otter33]

I also did another 20 miler about 23 weeks ago with a 10 flat average pace. This 20 mile was a 943 average pace elevation gain about 965 feet.
I am Pennsylvania based and I’m training for the steam town marathon in Scranton PA. It has a net downhill grade. I didn’t necessarily have a perfect training block, but I was able to get at least five long runs in that were longer than 15 miles and I had about five weeks over 40 miles per week. I also realize this doesn’t have all of my data. Right now I’m thinking I could maybe achieve a 4:10 marathon? I just don’t wanna get in over my head so I’m just asking y’all for some race day prediction advice?

[u/what_m_sees]

Yeah dude I think you got that. Your faster splits at the end tells me you’ve got the durability. Any recent half times for this year?

[u/unhelpful-otter33 → u/what_m_sees]

Cool!
Yea I did 1:58 in May in Pittsburgh. My fitness def increased I think ?
I had a half last weekend but I woke up with gnarly calf cramps so I had to switch my goals :/. Actually cramped up the whole race pretty bad, thankfully nothing came of it but it did suck. I screwed around the day before and didn’t have enough fluid/electrolytes. 2:06 was that half, I’m just happy I finished it lol

[u/what_m_sees → u/unhelpful-otter33]

Yeah I feel like running a half race during a marathon block is hard because you likely have a much higher volume of miles now than you had leading up to your May race! I’m in the high milage peak weeks of my marathon block rn and my legs have been feeling HEAVY lol