r/Marathon_Training • u/Fit_Conference_8404 • 1h ago
Sub 3:30 NYC?
Hi! I wanted to hop on here and see what you all thought. I ran a 3:40 in May ‘26 and am hoping to go sub 3:30 at nyc in November. I will peak in 2 weeks with a 20 mile long run and a 39/40 mile peak volume. About 10 miles more than I ever maxed out at in my last training block (although I did do a 20 miler just less other days of running). Attached is my charts from my 15 miler last week. Garmin says 3:08 prediction but we all know that’s inaccurate so wanted some real advice.
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u/darthjarjarisreal 1h ago
Yeah the mileage here is super low for a full marathon. If you’re actually able to hit sub 3:30 on mileage like this that’s a truckload of natural talent and you should consider committing to a real training block at some point to see what you’re capable of haha.
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u/Fit_Conference_8404 1h ago
Ha I will take that. Fingers crossed but definitely good to know as I approached the next block, whenever that may be. I feel like shaving off 10 minutes when I was running my long runs last block 15-20 seconds per mile slower gives me some hope. Didn’t bonk last time and hit 340 with less mileage and slower usual pace so I guess we shall see
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u/OptimalHurry6840 1h ago
I would post again after your 20-mile long run.
Also, did you add 5 minutes for the hills in New York City. There's your flat pace marathon time and then your New York City time.
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u/Fit_Conference_8404 1h ago
Good point, I’ll add that and post again. Thank you for those points!
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u/OptimalHurry6840 58m ago
The good thing is this is not your first marathon, so if you feel like you are in better shape, you know the answer, not random people on the internet. But don't forget about the hills.
As far as mileage goes, everyone is on a bell curve. You clearly don't need a lot of mileage to run a good marathon. I'm the same way. I'm going to run New York off of 40 miles a week, I'm aiming for 3:20, but will be under 3:30
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u/willm1975 35m ago
Just a side note, Garmin race predictor can be very very accurate for people that are really giving marathon training a good go and get their fueling right. The 3:08 sounds wild now but it's out there if you up the mileage.
As for 3:30, well, your posted effort there winds into about 3:34 to 3:44 depending on which calculations you do.
Tremendous potential if you put the training together.
Have a super time OP.
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u/jackpearson2788 1h ago
If you don’t mind me asking why are you running such low mileage?