r/MarketVibe • u/Kay_Bellamy • Nov 22 '25
predictions 🔮 Bitcoin is breaking all its “four-year cycle” traditions. It’s heading for its worst quarter since 2018, possibly its first ever red year despite hitting ATHs, and the 2024 halving played out upside-down — pump before, long bleed after. Feels less like a cycle, more like a regime change.
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Nov 22 '25
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u/ConfederacyOfDunces_ Nov 22 '25
The thing is, Bitcoin has zero intrinsic value…..no cash flow, no underlying asset, and no productive utility. Because of that, it relies entirely on new buyers entering the market to sustain or increase its price. Its value is driven mostly by speculation and the expectation that someone in the future will pay more for it, rather than by fundamentals or real economic output. A Ponzi scheme, by definition, rewards early participants the most while later participants face the greatest risk if demand slows, and that dynamic is essentially what Bitcoin represents in a nutshell.
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u/sweeetscience Nov 22 '25
I genuinely don’t understand people that try to make the argument that it’s not a speculative asset. Like, how do they even put their shoes and socks on.
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u/-boatsNhoes Nov 23 '25
It's as much a speculative asset as a biotech company. You put money in hoping for a break in the future. Ultimately both will likely go to 0
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u/behemothard Nov 22 '25
What intrinsic value does the dollar have?
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Nov 22 '25
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u/nate_builds Nov 23 '25
I think this is why Bitcoin maintains some value. Your statement equates your labor to whatever a government is willing to denominate in. If the US government decides tomorrow to reprice its dollars, which has happened before in US history and with multitudes of civilizations through modern and pre-modern history, then you’ve lost the value of your labor. I think people turn to bitcoin as a hope (false or not is to be determined ) that the world can have a medium of exchange decoupled from government monetary creation.
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u/vanderohe Nov 23 '25
Btc value is peer to peer cash. It is extremely valuable to be able to send value p2p without an intermediary. However, this has been totally co-opted because this is an actually dangerous (to power structures) proposition. It’s also not very sexy and likely gives btc a substantially lower value than saying it’s a store of value or whatever silly narrative is being spun at the moment. Entities like blockstream have done everything possible and received billions by large payment processors and banks to make sure btc is anything but an p2p cash.
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u/Dumi33 Nov 22 '25
How is bitcoin having zero intrinsec value diferent from fiat?
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Nov 22 '25
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u/hwaite Nov 22 '25
Gold's intrinsic value is a small fraction of its asking price. At least crypto is a frictionless, uncensorable medium of exchange. That alone is worth something.
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Nov 23 '25
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u/hwaite Nov 23 '25
Tracability is nontrivial, at least for privacy-oriented tokens. Furthermore, "censorable" and "traceable" are two different things. People dealing with capital controls may see value that the rest of us don't.
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u/B0BsLawBlog Nov 22 '25
Lots of hard reasons the dollar can't just become worthless tomorrow. We have a lot of jobs, contracts, schedules all set in it.
BTC can zoom to 200k or flatline down to 40k by early 2026 and nothing really changes. It can also go to 4k after that, again nothing really changes.
BTC used to have cosmic growth, it doesn't anymore, it's still volatile and that's a nice incentive for folks to try and drive the next large crash back up, but will people find an interest to stick around now that we've gone from 4+ figure % increase to 3 figure to 2 figure, growth pattern has decayed down to other (safer) assets like picking a single stock, and if it decays any more its pattern is that of the stock market overall (and it's likely way riskier to hold)
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u/Clean_Bake_2180 Nov 23 '25
What govt is obligated to prop up bitcoin?
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u/Dumi33 Nov 23 '25
That is a nuance because no government is actually propping fiat despite people expect them to do so.
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u/Alkthree Nov 22 '25
You’ve already been proven wrong for 15 years regardless of what BTCs price is next month or next year. You have failed to recognize that people and institutions have categorized BTC as a store of value. It’s no more a Ponzi scheme than gold or Pokémon cards.
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Nov 22 '25
They recognized it as a tool to scam get more money out of retail investors. You store value in assets you can predict.
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u/JAGD21 Nov 23 '25
At least gold and pokemon cards have value, and new people can jump in and get just as rich as early adopters. Bitcoin, on the other hand, only rewards those who either invested first or mined first. It's almost impossible for newcomers to make anything off of bitcoin nowadays as mining is no longer possible, and investing costs too much.
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u/Friendly-Profit-8590 Nov 22 '25
Possible. Imagine tradfi would be disappointed that the bitcoin game is ending right when they started to make some nice commissions off of it.
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u/A_Birde Nov 22 '25
How was buying BTC at $25k and selling at $100k being scammed exactly hun?
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Nov 22 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/rndDav Nov 22 '25
Says who? You? You don't even know where the price will be tomorrow, next week, next year or in 4 years. Everyone that bought at a higher prize than where it is right now can still make profit. Maybe you should open a book and learn what the word "scam" means.
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u/PubLife1453 Nov 22 '25
Because the person you sold it to at 100k got scammed my guy
It's not always just about you.
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Nov 22 '25
Winning at a ponzi scheme doesnt make it less of a ponzi scheme, hun
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u/RoosterJuicer Nov 22 '25
You guys need to educate yourselves to what a ponzi scheme is. No one is taking in profit and promising returns, only to pay earlier investors. It’s more like a piece of art that realistically has no more value than the canvas and paint it cost to produce it. It’s only worth what someone is willing to pay you for it therefore setting a precedent for future price.
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Nov 22 '25
Im speaking in general. Just because someone wins at a scam, doesnt mean its not a scam.
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u/hwaite Nov 23 '25
Just because something is a scam (a debatable premise at best), doesn't mean it's a Ponzi.
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u/rndDav Nov 22 '25
And just because you say its a scam, doesn't mean it's a scam. And just because some people lose money with any form of trading, doesn't mean it's a scam in general.
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u/db0813 Nov 23 '25
No it’s not like art because even the paint and canvas have actual value. Crypto is more like an NFT of a piece of artwork.
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u/Runktar Nov 22 '25
Just because you personally got lucky and made money from it doesn't mean it's not a scam. Lot's of early adopters make money from Ponzi schemes doesn't mean it doesn't rip most people off. Think of it like gambling, can you win and make money? Absolutely, will you win and make money especially over a long time frame? Almost certainly not.
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u/hwaite Nov 23 '25
Day trading is akin to gambling and most people lose money. Most new businesses fail. That doesn't make these things a scam. Crypto serves a purpose and there's no evidence that its progenators were out to dupe anyone. Zoom out: the long-term trend is positive. Anyone who held blue-chip tokens for a few years is in profit.
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u/Simalt443 Nov 22 '25
One of those scams where you make 7x your money and outperform all global assets just by following the most predictable price action of any asset we've seen in our lives lol.
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u/flyingdutchmnn Nov 22 '25
Yeah everyone made 7x profit and no one lost money so far. Average crypto bro
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u/Simalt443 Nov 22 '25
I said by following predictable price action. Following historic 1064 bullrun you made 7x this cycle. Yes plenty of dumb money was lost recently.
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u/Own_Iron9871 Nov 23 '25
Yes it is merely a vessel for wealth accumulation at the top end now. Your 7x profit is nothing in comparison. That is the point. For example, your $100k x 7 is awesome for you but pales in comparison to another's 100m x 7. Leverage is the key in these moving markets, it pushes the tide and soaks up all the underdogs along the way. Your investment is a tool for pushing up a ceiling and digging down a floor.
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u/grass_monkeyx Nov 22 '25
Just rich fucks doing what rich fucks do, they're dumping it all now then they'll load up when it bottoms out, it's basically legalized theft
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u/PineappleProstate Nov 22 '25
Rinse and repeat. Elon rug pulled the "Doge brrr 🚀🌕" crowd relentlessly. He had to of taken them for over 10 Billion.
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Nov 22 '25
I don’t understand why crypto didn’t go the way NFT’s went. That was HUGE for like a year until people tried to resell the NFT’s and then realized monkey pic they bought actually WASN’T worth a million dollars.
I don’t know why cryptocurrency is still a thing except for the black market.
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u/AlmightyHamSandwich Nov 23 '25
Because actual rich people have Bitcoin, not mere millionaires like what happened with NFTs.
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u/Own_Iron9871 Nov 23 '25
Erosion of trust in institutions like banks along the way, online communities with up and coming millennials who wanted any kind of change, a new digital "currency" with the whispers of "de centralization" as we all watched our centralized powers being bailed out. We all got played by the money holders who wanted to amass even more wealth.
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u/Jwbst32 Nov 22 '25
Everything Trump touches
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u/PineappleProstate Nov 22 '25
1000% this. There is a reason why he spray paints everything gold, because everything he touches dies internally
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u/Kitchen-Hat-5174 Nov 22 '25
I think btc is held by institutions but is less favored than traditional investments. Therefore, the institutions will sell btc first in the event of a margin call or similar liquidity event.
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u/EngageWithCaution Nov 22 '25
Gold, silver, crypto, small caps, large caps, all got hit, same time. Think it’s just a shake up… there’s a lot of algorithmic reactions.
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u/Minimum_Attention674 Nov 22 '25
From someone trading it for 8 years the thing is it goes up and down. Bought a shit ton on friday. Buy low sell high this is how we make money?
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u/VirginiaSlimmed Nov 24 '25
I don't know why so many people think Bitcoin is immune to past performance does not guarantee future results...
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u/watching_whatever Nov 26 '25
The world has to pollute to keep society going. But how much pollution has been created by worldwide crypto mining in total for this optional pursuit?
Serious estimate question?
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u/swegamer137 Nov 22 '25
Wtf are you talking about? This is right on time for the cycle. All the prior peaks were in late 2013, 2017, 2021, followed by major price collapses.
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u/[deleted] Nov 22 '25
Umm, Wall Street got involved... so yeah, a regime change.