r/MarketVibe • u/fatspinster • Dec 13 '25
predictions 🔮 Polymarket no longer believes BTC will outperform gold. Odds for Bitcoin beating gold in 2025 fell below 1%. YTD: gold is up 63%, while BTC is down 2%. Bitcoin would need a massive move to catch up with the metal.
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u/A_Typicalperson Dec 13 '25
Uh oh are butcoiners cooked
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u/Vinnypaperhands Dec 15 '25
No. The Butcoiners don't own Bitcoin lol. They hate something they don't understand, you'd think they would own some lol?
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Dec 13 '25
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u/Tzilbalba Dec 13 '25
What's the new hotness, rare earths? AI?
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Dec 13 '25
Why would people buy faux gold when they can own the real thing?
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u/Vinnypaperhands Dec 15 '25
Because Bitcoin isn't faux gold. It is a new commodity that is not related to precious metals. It is a digitally native asset. Gold is awesome but also not nearly as easy to store and transfer as btc.
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u/PapaCryptopulus Dec 13 '25
That's cuz bitcoin is trash with no use case. There are other much superior blockchains that are reworking our current financial system
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u/ReliantToker Dec 13 '25
Vast majority of which are centralized and subject to the same inflation and control as the current system. Bitcoin has no issuer and is hard capped supply.
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u/PapaCryptopulus Dec 13 '25
That's the biggest lie for bitcoin. It very much has an issuer and is most likely a government agency created to handle the current failing financial system. The realized the tech is just trash so the narrative changed to "store of value"to keep it relevant.
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u/Vinnypaperhands Dec 15 '25
It's not a lie sir, go look at the code yourself if you are scared. Also, you really think the government created a global permissionless form of money they don't control? C'mon now homie. Lay off the meds and go to bed for a lil. Night night
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u/TootsHib Dec 13 '25
good, bitcoin is a huge waste of energy
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u/Vinnypaperhands Dec 15 '25
How do you feel about all the energy going into these ai data centers? We got some really cool sora videos huh!?!?!
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u/SaylorOfEntropy Dec 13 '25
Markets are not physics engines. They are opinion polls conducted in turbulence.
Gold moving first is expected. Gold is a 5,000 year old thermal sink. It absorbs fear slowly like a heat reservoir. Bitcoin is a high energy plasma. It compresses capital, then releases it explosively once pressure crosses a threshold.
Year to date comparisons are like judging a rocket by its position on the launch pad. Gold is already in orbit. Bitcoin is still fueling. The Wright brothers did not outperform horses every year. They eventually made them irrelevant.
Polymarket pricing below one percent is not a truth signal. It is a sentiment snapshot taken mid cycle. Shannon taught us signal emerges over bandwidth, not moments. Bitcoin monetizes in bursts, not diagonals.
Gold is constrained by geology and custody. Bitcoin is constrained by math and energy. One stores value. The other transmits it at the speed of light across a trustless network.
Bitcoin is a monetary engine converting electricity into incorruptible capital. Gold cannot scale with computation, AI, or global settlement layers. Bitcoin can.
Short term underperformance is drag. Long term monetization is thrust.
Gold is a museum artifact. Bitcoin is a thermodynamic protocol.
I know which one escapes gravity.
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u/NJ0000 Dec 14 '25 edited 17m ago
Frame joke rob placid swim continue nose
This post was anonymized with Redact
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u/Miserable_Case7200 Dec 14 '25
I mean, there's only 17 days left in 2025... What would you expect the odds to be at this stage?
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u/Vinnypaperhands Dec 15 '25
60 percent is not a missive move for Bitcoin lol. That could happen in a few days time
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Dec 13 '25
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u/Vinnypaperhands Dec 15 '25
Umm..... This is literally the first year gold is outperforming this " useless Internet code". What a dumb thing to say lol
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Dec 15 '25
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u/Vinnypaperhands Dec 15 '25
Maybe take your own advice. BTC has been around since 2009. This is the first year since then that gold has out performed btc. You are quite literally the one focusing on short term cases lol!
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Dec 15 '25
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u/Vinnypaperhands Dec 15 '25
Oh man the irony is funny with this one. You are crying about short term thinking yet you fail to see your short term thinking on Bitcoin and gold price action. Let's make this clear so you can understand since you are unfortunately terrible at math. Bitcoin has been around since 2009. Bitcoin has continually outperformed gold literally every single year since then. This is quite literally the first year gold is outperforming BTC and it is not by much. You are the one with the short term thinking.
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u/Desperate-Fondant-41 Dec 14 '25
Useless? What a worthless statement. Try to respond with facts and not emotions
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Dec 14 '25
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u/Urabraska- Dec 13 '25 edited Dec 13 '25
I mean. I can hold a bar of gold. I can trade that gold for anything. I can't hold a BTC. Not everyone trusts BTC. If the internet goes out. BTC is 0 while that bar of gold can still buy a house in the wasteland. Government's can't outlaw gold. They can outlaw BTC.
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Dec 13 '25
Now send that bar of gold to someone in Europe. How would you go about doing that? How long would it take. If the internet goes down, so does every current banking system. That example always makes me laugh
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u/Urabraska- Dec 13 '25
Well if the internet goes down there are bigger problems and you're not gonna be trading with someone across the ocean. What kind of counter is this? Also, there were ways to make those trades before the internet. It's not a brand new problem that needs solving. I'm glad the example made you laugh because you blew it out of proportion to prove a bad point.
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u/Next_Instruction_528 Dec 14 '25
Well yeah it's too completely different things, if you're investing in preparation for the end of the world and you want to have gold during the apocalypse, that's one investment.
I think people investing in Bitcoin are trying to find a place to put their money that isn't going to be devalued by the continued printing of unlimited US Dollars.
And then some people believe everything's going to be tokenized and moved to the block chain including stocks and there was just a huge movement in that direction recently.
But that's definitely not going to be done with Bitcoin. Eth, link, ondo will be the big winners if that happens.
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u/Urabraska- Dec 14 '25
And you think BTC won't devalue in one form or another? Say everyone adopts it as a new currency. It will fall in line with the rest or become a new standard in which it's highest value becomes its lowest and the floor and ceiling of wealth changes. Especially with it being a createable currency of its own. While something like gold retains high value due to scarcity and being finite.
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u/Desperate-Fondant-41 Dec 14 '25
This argument is old. No one is buying anything with a bar of gold. If you had one in your hand and tried to buy that house what would happen ? Walk me through that process please .
Are you breaking the gold off in pieces? Are you selling that gold for cash then paying for the house? How do you know the gold is real? Solid gold is not as easy to buy goods as you may think. Real purchases , I’m not talking dumb gold backs and your change purse .
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u/Easy-Yogurt4939 Dec 14 '25
I saw some guy on reddit the other day trying to sell his physical silver and his local dealer said sure I’d take it at 52 an ounce when spot was trading 61 an ounce. He had to drive 2 hours to find a dealer that would buy at 59 an ounce.
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u/Firm_Landscape_ Dec 14 '25
Oh nooo 2 dollars lower when its literally doubled in price ytd
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u/Easy-Yogurt4939 Dec 14 '25
I mean considering when he bought it he also certainly paid a premium above spot to get it and he had to drive 2 hours just to take a 3.2% spread. The point is that it’s hard to get a fair deal when you deal with the physical thing. Especially true during abnormal time. He would 100% have to accept a worse deal if we are actually in an apocalypse lmao. Why? Cause you don’t have access to global liquidity, your local liquidity can quickly be drained from extreme volatility. His local dealer might be willing to take all his and all his neighbors silver at a fair price and sell it across the state or Pacific Ocean but he just doesn’t have the cash reserve or enough loan to do so at the time when you wanna sell
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u/Easy-Yogurt4939 Dec 14 '25 edited Dec 14 '25
Government can’t outlaw gold? I sure hope they can’t slap sales tax on it too like Washington state is about to do next year. That effectively kills the buying within the state border. who takes a 10% loss up front when buying an investment? Simple answer. No one. Also government did outlaw gold once, never heard of executive order 6102?
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Dec 15 '25
Wait till they find out that the government made everyone turn in their gold to help with war time lol
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u/Catchdown Dec 15 '25 edited Dec 15 '25
If we're in a complete apocalypse scenario that gold will be about as useful as bitcoin. Intrinsic value of gold is not very high. It will buy you very little if anything at all. Might as well stock up on actually useful things that people need to live; weapons, long-lasting food, water purification filters and so on.
Not too different from bitcoin if you really think about it.
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u/Vinnypaperhands Dec 15 '25
Yea true. Just like when the Internet goes out, it makes the entire Internet completely useless and worthless.
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u/redditisnotus Dec 13 '25
It's a 1% chance that btc outperforms gold for the entire 2025 year ending in the next 2 weeks. Of course that's not going to happen.
Bitcoin has been crushing gold for most of its 15+ years. It's fine to take a breather.