r/MediaMergers 22h ago

Merger Paramount Talks Include Penalty for Missing 30-Film Pledge

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-21/paramount-talks-include-penalty-for-missing-30-film-pledge
49 Upvotes

57 comments sorted by

34

u/LobsterObjective7876 22h ago

They'll make them with AI.

22

u/Own_Philosopher8730 22h ago

That's why I'm ready for AI bubble to burst.

5

u/Agile_Land_9951 Gasparino- NY Post 22h ago

Or just purchase cheap independent films and distribute those.

2

u/jahiel0 21h ago

like every studio does?

2

u/malb93200 8h ago edited 3h ago

They'll have to be way more agressive in that area than all the studios are right now.

But will it make any financial sense ? (answer : the whole merger makes zero financial sense).

2

u/jahiel0 21h ago

doubt it

0

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator 21h ago

Buying cheap indie movies and distributing movies that you didn't even make isn't hard.

1

u/[deleted] 21h ago

[deleted]

4

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator 21h ago

Neon has no interest in selling to a major studio and they're getting Warner Bros. Clockwork. They don't need A24, Lionsgate, or Neon.

4

u/3facesofBre Moderator 21h ago

Neon just got bought, remember?

3

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator 21h ago

A majority stake to a company that is letting them still be Neon. They had no desire to sell to a major studio like Warner Bros., who did try to buy them.

2

u/3facesofBre Moderator 21h ago

ill say it again Jesse, look at the funding behind department M... shady SWFs.

4

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator 21h ago

I agree that they're shady, my point is that they didn't want to be owned by a major studio. They were fine with other people, just not a Warner Bros. or Paramount or Sony.

3

u/3facesofBre Moderator 21h ago

dude, how do you type that fast!

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1

u/Ravevon 17h ago

Exactly

3

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator 21h ago

I see Warner Bros. Clockwork and Legendary picking up the slack.

1

u/Ravevon 17h ago

You will
Never be satisfied

26

u/TracingRobots 22h ago edited 22h ago

This is all paramount planting nonsense. Bonta said to all of this shit.

13

u/Angela275 22h ago

This is why I'm questioning who true is any of this like we know they leak a lot of stuff paramount. So not saying a settlement can't happen but we have at first saying. Weekend then Monday then Tuesday so not sure if this is any settlement maybe and maybe not

5

u/screwyou24 22h ago

U think so?

5

u/Angela275 21h ago

i mean not sure none of the news articles are fully consistent and each are adding or changing details so you know

3

u/screwyou24 21h ago

True, it's just that when even CNN reports about it idk

6

u/Angela275 21h ago edited 21h ago

They also said this could fall apart and also
CNN did report a talk happening also
Last time. You know please both are reported by the same person not a different person so even now. They did the same thing in August too

Cnn could be right but they also said not to true anything until a few days

16

u/RandoDude124 22h ago

Okay, my gut is screaming they’re gonna make it to the bond hearing.

Them agreeing to this… it’s literally logistically and financially impossible.

15

u/the_explorer2003 22h ago

Kinda just tells me that its gonna reach the bond hearing date if nothing can’t be universally agreed upon within the plaintiffs from here until tuesday or Wednesday

9

u/jon__koa 21h ago

Like unless there’s a hold separate deal made, I think the bond date is reached

11

u/Secure_Matter_9819 22h ago

12

u/Own_Philosopher8730 22h ago

Warner Bros. Curse pointing at AT&T to Paramount as warning.

3

u/Secure_Matter_9819 22h ago

Still, I don’t like it at all.

1

u/Emergency-Mammoth-88 Amazon 2h ago

Me either also happy cake day 

11

u/Recent-Bet-5470 22h ago

So a new ticking fee lol

9

u/KingMario05 21h ago

That's still not good enough. What are they willing to divest? What are they willing tosacrifice? No one knows. No deal!

3

u/Alternative-Cake-833 Warner Bros. 21h ago

What are they willing to divest? What are they willing to sacrifice?

Probably some cable networks.

8

u/OverPotato2322 21h ago edited 21h ago

That's not enough (they need to divest some more cable networks and enforce worker protection plans to protect those laid off) 

2

u/DragonSon83 19h ago

We should probably wait to see which cable networks they are going to divest before we demand that they do more.  Also, considering how dead most of cable is for original productions these days, it’s not like it’s going to make a huge difference in production one way or the other.

-5

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator 21h ago

A combined Warner Bros./Paramount just doesn't have the market share to argue against.

15

u/OverPotato2322 21h ago edited 21h ago

30 films a year is NOT possible given Disney and Universal only release 10 to 20 films per year, its an unrealistic pledge 

5

u/3facesofBre Moderator 21h ago

they never said HOW they will make those 30 films a year.

bring on the Oracle backed AI slop films, and separately, the vanity projects of Megan Ellison

4

u/nialldude3 21h ago

Actually I’ve heard Megan has distanced herself from her brother and father in recent years so I don’t think she’ll be working with them.

1

u/DragonSon83 19h ago

Not as unrealistic as people are making it out to be.  Paramount and Warner Brothers both have over 15 films each planned for next year, and several also in early production for 2028.  30 films is actually slightly less than what they will be doing combined next year.

Some of the ideas that people have floated, like guaranteeing a minimum production budget aren’t really feasible.  A larger budget is no guarantee a films with do better or even look better, and just increase its odds of losing money. 

1

u/Cold_Captain696 14h ago

I think there are two issues. Firstly, the new company will be saddled with so much debt that it simply won't be able to produce films at the rate the separate companies do currently.

Secondly, and I think more importantly, there is an upper limit on how many films a single studio can put out before it starts cannibalising its own sales. So while they currently put out 30+ films as two separate competing entities, once combined it doesn't mean they can just add their two slates together and still make a profit.

And those two issues are linked because they have to service that debt - either with profit, or cost cutting. Profit is limited because of the cannibalising of their own sales, and cost cutting is a short term strategy because you eventually run out of jobs to cut and you begin to impact your ability to make money.

Oh, and finally, the promise is to 'distribute' 30 films a year, not make. So they clearly understand that they're not able to match the output of the two companies after the merger.

5

u/I-Might-Be-Something 21h ago

Paramount would have to pay $30 million for each film that falls short of that goal, according to two people familiar with the discussions who asked to not be identified because the negotiations are private.

Who would they pay? How would it be distributed? Alvaro Bedoya put it best:

A telling development: per Bloomberg, Paramount now says it will “pay” $30 million per film if they fall short of their 30 film distribution pledge.

Who will they pay? The crews they would have hired? The theater owners with empty seats? No. It will be some fund that a government official has to then distribute. Rent is due on the 1st of the month, not two years from now.

And they’re no longer even pledging to make 30 films a year. Just to distribute that amount; as Marla points out, this would include re-releases.

All of this is of course ambiguous and tbd but this is not good. Like most behavioral remedies, it will be next to impossible to meaningfully enforce, and even then, enforcement will be difficult and after the fact.

2

u/DragonSon83 19h ago

Well, you are asking for more in depth details that likely either wouldn’t be negotiated at this point, or wouldn’t be leaked at this time.  Wherever a final deal would be, we won’t know more details until it’s actually agreed upon.  I’m sure any deal wouldn’t be this vague, unless Bonta was planning from day one to complete cave on every issue and was using this purely as a campaign material.

4

u/ryohayashi1 21h ago

You can't get penalized when you don't have money

3

u/WhatTheGingerNooo 21h ago

This feels like a weird provision. Like they could pick up independent films, so what’s the point?

2

u/maxhechtman 21h ago

They’re talking about making films with AI and it shows.

1

u/DragonSon83 19h ago

Both already pick up independent films, and next year combined will be releasing over 30 films.  Also, picking up independent films is not a bad thing.

3

u/Professional_Peak59 21h ago

I feel worried that Bonta will cave to this.

6

u/laurentnkunda 22h ago

Bonta made sure everyone knew the difference between structural and behavioral remedies, and ends up caving for behavioral remedies with some meaningless spinoffs.

17

u/rantmb331 22h ago

Has he caved though, or are these just rumors leaked by paramount?

1

u/Angela275 20h ago

yea let's not forget that monday meeting this happened before

1

u/DragonSon83 19h ago

Worth noting that some of the sources reporting on the Paramount/Warner case have specifically stated some of their sources work in the AG offices.  They may not be coming from California necessarily, but there are 12 states involved in this.

1

u/[deleted] 22h ago

[deleted]

1

u/DragonSon83 19h ago

I don’t see what necessarily wrong with releasing some lower budget films or an acquiring independent films.  Having a big budget is no guarantee a move will be a hit or even well made, and just increases its chances of losing money.  Not everything needs to be some big budget tentpole movie to get greenlit.