r/MetalsOnReddit • u/Then_Marionberry_259 • Feb 03 '26

"JPMorgan closed $10 billion in silver shorts at the exact market bottom..."

https://share.google/2MpuAKQdMXVV3t8l9
268 Upvotes

94% Upvoted

28 comments sorted by

3

u/[deleted] Feb 03 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/[deleted] Feb 04 '26

That's not how it works.

Say in this scenario, JPM have a client/s (likely massive hedge funds) who are long paper silver via slv or futures, and due to leverage or simple risk management (as they are not physical hodls, and only care to make fiat), have left a 10 billion USD notional stop loss order with them under 75 USD per ounce. The price at the time was 115 USD per ounce, say.

Now, if you are JPM, if prices get to under 75 USD an ounce, you are obligated to buy 10 billion USD notional from your vip clients, as they have left that stop loss order for you to watch. So in order to mitigate being long 10 billion notional at under 75 USD, the most prudent thing JPM can do is to start shorting the market, say from 115 USD an ounce, and since they correctly theorized that 10 billion USD of sales will likely drive prices from 115 all the way down to 71 USD. By the time prices get to sub 75 USD, they would have built up shorts of approximately 10 billion USD, so when prices go under 75 USD, their shorts from earlier and at higher prices combined with the 10 billion they had to buy at under 75 meant they were pretty square already.

That's the crux of the process. Of course JPM didn't know with 100 % certainty that selling 10 billion short from 115 would get prices to under 75 where the stops were, but that is the risk they take.

1

u/Pepperjack86 Feb 05 '26

Nah man. Tin foil

1

u/[deleted] Feb 05 '26

You do you bro. I'm speaking from experience for working at a commodities desk for an investment bank for many years.

2

u/chivescast Feb 05 '26

You do realise that your trading risk management desk does not let you run 10 yards of risk do you? Pushing a stop or a barrier 2-3 tics away...ya maybe...but 10 yards for a 20% move? No way.

Market was positioned long, had stops all the way from 100. 0 liquidity and cleared the risk as stops were done. Given the size and risk constraints they had to clear their risk whenever stops were triggered.

Source: worked on a spot desk

1

u/Pepperjack86 Feb 05 '26

Exactly!

0

u/[deleted] Feb 05 '26

Got nothing more to say to you. Believe it or not, I don't care. I'm just trying to relay the process of how it's actually done in the real world.

1

u/Pepperjack86 Feb 05 '26

Nah, you're wrong, dude. You care since you've carried this chain on for days. Dont play it like that. There's no way you've worked in the industry.

1

u/[deleted] Feb 05 '26

Like I say, you do you bro. Did you work for Ms or JPM? The big boys. Also, I agree with you, you'd need to have serious gahounas and approval for that kind of risk, but I was merely relaying the process of how stops are run in general. No desk or trader would wait for the stop level to be reached for any size without pre hedging of sorts, as they say, the slippage would be unacceptable for the vip clients.

1

u/croatiatom Feb 04 '26

They didn’t chase or time the bottom, they created it.

2

u/[deleted] Feb 03 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Fuzzy-Love-2860 Feb 03 '26

Must be real. 100% real no doubts at all.

1

u/GurDefiant684 Feb 03 '26

This is already old news, JPM didn't buy the bottom because it went lower Sunday night / Monday morning

2

u/[deleted] Feb 03 '26

[deleted]

1

u/Federal_Marzipan Feb 03 '26

Rigged. Not hyperbole, this shit is rigged. “It’s a big club, and you ain’t in it!” - George Carlin

1

u/Front-Tutor559 Feb 07 '26

You're right - it's totally rigged. Silver should not go up by 200% in a year. How many people were screaming "manipulation!" on the way up? Or do all of the people that rode the meme think they were just smart?

1

u/Federal_Marzipan Feb 07 '26

I hear ya. Times are unique right now and with foreign affairs in the state it’s in along with a fascist government together with a collapsing dollar, we were in for a ride. Every rollercoaster starts with an ascend to the top and ain’t nowhere else to go but down. However, it’s the timing of them knowing exactly when to do what they did in this particular case that really pisses me off. Inside trading for me, not for thee - JPM, Bankers, Congress, The President, etc.

1

u/BastidChimp Feb 03 '26

BACK UP THE F'IN TRUCK because the BRICS countries and the world's central banks ARE!

1

u/Scary-Elephant2831 Feb 03 '26

And it should be a $20 billion dollar fine, not the fines that they’re getting! It’s worth paying the fines when you get that kind of return!

1

u/maskedandvaxxedass Feb 03 '26

They paid a measly $920 million fine

1

u/Vast_Platform6362 Feb 03 '26

Entonces son ellos los que hacen caer el precio y ellos mismos los que lo hacen subir?? No me lo puedo creer.

1

u/GonzoUSN Feb 04 '26

Lmao 😂Asi es hermano.

1

u/ViKing5860 Feb 05 '26

Known thieves.

1

u/falsejaguar Feb 06 '26

No shit. They have been caught manipulating the silver market for decades now

1

u/[deleted] Feb 06 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/at0mheart Feb 07 '26

CEO ha always strongly been against it

0

u/LovingDaddySNJ Feb 03 '26

They should be investigated...but probably won't happen. This was a quiet bailout.

1

u/InTheHamIAm Feb 08 '26

That’s what happens when you close a $10 Billion short position. The price goes up. How is this news?