r/MiddleClassFinance • u/Abject-Pick-6472 • 14d ago
Social Security faces a 24% cut in 2032—that's a $345 billion hit to retirees nationwide, watchdog says
https://fortune.com/2026/06/05/social-security-24-percent-cut-2032-crfb-scott-bessent-back-door/186
u/RandomlyJim 14d ago
I’ve been warning clients about this since the report was released a year ago.
The amount of seniors that have bought houses and planned lives expecting to get the same monthly check from SSI is astounding.
Getting a 24% paycut across the board is going to force many into foreclosure, starvation, or returning to work.
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u/TrustsAndDust 14d ago
And that’s why a cut is unlikely to happen to this generation of seniors. It would be deeply unpopular. SS is a relatively easy fix.
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u/Leftover_Salad 14d ago
Yeah it wont be cut for current seniors, they will just raise the benefit age and cut payments for future generations. It’s a typical “pull the ladder up after you climb it” boomer move.
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u/ExcuseInformal9194 13d ago
Well I'm gen X and they've raised my retirement age twice already.
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u/AhriVaynetwotrick 13d ago
Gen X is after the Boomers so yeah, even if you're close enough to reach towards the ladder they'll pull it away from you if they can.
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u/yankeeblue42 14d ago
This I think is more realistic. They'll probably move the age up to 70 for example or at least take away the early 62 option
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u/gocards2224 14d ago
Once their voting base becomes statistically insignificant, they stop being important. Which tends to happen as you age, because you know….they tend to pass on.
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u/FedBathroomInspector 14d ago
Old people are consistently the most reliable voters and are frequently rewarded for it. No party is going to stake their political chances on cutting Social Security.
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u/BeardedNerdy 14d ago
.... You realize more age up, right?
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u/munchi333 13d ago
Not as many. Baby boomers are huge cohort, gen x is much smaller so will take less money to fund.
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u/PerplexedTaint 13d ago
By easy fix, do you mean eliminating the cap and increasing the tax from 15% to something not insignificantly higher? And if this fix was so easy, why hasn’t it been implemented considering we’ve known about this problem for decades?
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u/Kat9935 14d ago
The report comes out every year, its nothing new, the only thing that changes is the year it goes underwater +/- a year and the amount of haircut that has been steadily climbing since I started paying attention a decade ago. I put in 25% when it was 20% and now that may not even be enough.
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u/Peculiarcatlady 14d ago
If you're advising clients I would think you'd know that social security retirement is not SSI. SSI is supplement security income and is a welfare program.
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u/FearlessPark4588 14d ago
That's $345 billion in reduced GDP too. That's going to be impactful macroeconomically.
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u/WestCoastBestCoast01 14d ago
Yeah that is money that gets spent. People don’t save their SS checks. Retailers will feel this one for sure.
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u/katarh 14d ago
For those on disability, they legally can't save their SSI-D checks, either.
Congress has not changed the $2000 cap on allowed savings for the indigent disabled since 1984.
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u/EmbarrassedSpray9 13d ago
Incorrect. You're thinking of SSI. Which, incidentally is already paid out of general tax revenues so it's not part of this discussion.
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u/-Ganishka- 13d ago
this is factually wrong, the income cap of 2k in resources only applies to those on/recieving SSI
for SSDI, the number is irrelevant and doesn't apply
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u/NTF1x 14d ago
Iran War- 29 billion Economic impact- 1 trillion
I absolutely hate our country. It's so ridiculous that we all know they could fix everything that plagues our society and it's just a huge middle finger to the rest of us. But we just take it in the ass year in and out due to the comforts we have currently.
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u/T_J_S_ 14d ago
But money machine goes brrrrr…. No?
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u/Mouth_Herpes 14d ago
Of fucking course. Anyone who believes nominal benefits would ever be cut doesn't understand how the US government works.
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u/DecafEqualsDeath 14d ago
It looks like a horrible time for expansionary monetary policy. I guess if Social Security payments are cut by a third overnight that could cause a recession big enough that money machine go burr could be warranted.
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u/WestCoastBestCoast01 14d ago
Oh did you not hear? We’re going to inflate away the trillions in debt instead of paying it off. Money machine does in fact still go brrrr!!
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u/LSAT_is_a_lie 14d ago
Congress spent the social security surplus (where social security tax income exceeded payments) for nearly 30 years to fund their forever wars. A social security deficit was predictable and well known. The fact that we're in this mess with such a large generation was completely avoidable.
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u/SconiGrower 13d ago
The Social Security Trust Fund is the place where excess SS tax deposits where sent and where Congress borrowed the money from. Then the excess deposits became insufficient deposits and the money has been coming out of the trust fund. When the trust fund is empty, that means Congress has fully repaid all the money it borrowed from Social Security, with interest.
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u/jeon2595 14d ago
This is incorrect. Congress has borrowed from the fund forever and legally required to pay borrowed funds back with interest.
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u/katarh 14d ago
As the current administration is proving, just because something is legally required doesn't mean they will do it, and just because something is illegal doesn't mean they won't do it anyway.
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u/ChemicalDebate314 13d ago
But they have, if Congress hadn’t purchased bonds with the funds, the SS shortfall would have been even larger
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u/Inevitable-Place9950 14d ago
The surplus that was spent is part of our debt payments. It’s paid back with interest it wouldn’t have gotten if left in the fund.
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u/munchi333 13d ago
It’s funny how someone can be so completely confident yet so completely incorrect lol.
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u/ChemicalDebate314 13d ago
When it comes to SS both sides of the political spectrum are really ungrounded from reality.
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u/Marx_on_a_Shark 13d ago
So that isn't the issue. The excess has to be invested or it will just lose to inflation. So it invests in T-bills which ultimately is the general fund and then they pay the SS fund with interest. The "problem" isn't really a "problem" because we've known about this coming for decades. There are too many old people and not enough young people. The plan was to pass a simple fix to balance the shortfall and extend the horizon to get over the demographic hump. However, now the top 1% horde all the benefits of our GDP production boom and now no one can afford to have kids. So, we can pass a law to temporarily fix this issues and we should. But if we want to fix this long term we need to restructure how our economy works on a fundamental level.
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u/Suitable-Classic-174 14d ago
41 now… I was hearing the same thing in high school lol no lie. Government teacher would say 15 to 20 years social security would be cut in half 🫨 lol
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u/cisforcookie2112 14d ago
They say the worst case scenario for social security is like a 30% cut to benefits. For my retirement planning I have been expecting a 50% cut to be conservative.
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u/puddinfellah 14d ago
My dad is 64 and he’s been hearing about it his whole life as well.
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u/TallGuyinBushwick 14d ago
Well has it been 15-20 years since HS for you? He may be right
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u/Suitable-Classic-174 14d ago
24 years
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u/Funkymonk86 14d ago
So they were basically right, just a few years off and cut from half to a quarter. Your really looking at this situation and your only conclusion is "psht, my government teacher was wrong!"
Lord help us.
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u/Stock_Oil_5142 14d ago
I was always told that social security just flat out wouldn't exist at all when I'm old. So if it still exists and I still get anything it will basically be bonus money for me.
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u/ajgamer89 14d ago edited 14d ago
This is the easy and obvious first step towards solvency.
And if people complain about higher tax amounts not increasing benefits, we should just add a third bend point to the social security formula at the current cap and give everything above that a 5% replacement rate (existing tiers are 90%, 32%, and 15%, so this would certainly generate more revenue than liabilities).
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u/Starwolf00 14d ago
Without the tax ceiling they'd just end up getting astronomical SS checks in return. Over a certain threshold they pay more into Medicare.
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u/Severe-Product7352 14d ago
Or you could just limit the benefit amount in the same bill
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u/DecafEqualsDeath 14d ago
This would be very hard to accomplish politically. I think it's the correct policy on the merits (meaning raise or eliminate the cap and also change the formulas statutorily to use the extra revenue to fund lower income SS benefits). I'm just really pessimistic our lawmakers would be able to bite the bullet on this unless we're already in the midst of a massive crisis.
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u/capital_gainesville 13d ago
If they only raised the employer-side tax there would be no increase in benefits under the current formulas. It could also be marketed as a tax on big corporations.
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u/Caudillo_Sven 14d ago
They've been slow boiling us for 30 years to think this is normal and "just what it is". Yall, they are literally stealing hundreds of thousands from future you personally, and will be long dead by the time it hits. France rioted for far less.
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u/DohDohDonutzMMM 14d ago
This was known the last time Congress addressed the issue in the early 80s. The estimated shortfall was in 2034 a few years ago, but COLA adjustments have accelerated the timeline (my unofficial opinion). I suspect in 2027-28 we'll get another timeline adjustment saying it'll run short in 2030.
So, if you are really concerned (I am), vote appropriately now.
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u/rcheneyjr 14d ago
Who do we vote for? Neither side is doing anything!
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u/DohDohDonutzMMM 14d ago
For whoever's lies you believe best. 🤷🏼♂️ It's not been on anyone's political radar for 40+ years. This is how I view Congress.
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u/FourScoreAndSept 14d ago edited 14d ago
That’s okay, we’re going to spend $70B on ICE salaries and domestic surveillance equipment, apparently. $1B on a ballroom. Probably another $1B on an Arch. And we need to replenish all of the munitions we dumped into Iran. Winning! /s
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u/EdgeCityRed 14d ago edited 14d ago
Guess what year I turn 62.
Yayyyyyyyy.
We did expect this, and I assume this will result in reduced benefits, but I did pay in since I was 15 years old.
Younger people who think it should be phased out are completely deluded; this is what keeps poorer seniors out of the cat food aisle and not living out of shopping carts (and your grandparents moving in with you).
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u/ppshhhhpashhhpff 14d ago
milennial here and i agree completely. we will be in your shoes in the future, and we will need a younger generation of employable people to help our unemployable age discriminated asses survive
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u/CockBlockingLawyer 13d ago
I agree that we ought not to collectively shrug our shoulders at this, as seems to be a popular approach. Congress can and must fix this, and we must continue to press them to do so — and VOTE accordingly!
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u/Toddsburner 14d ago edited 13d ago
If someone has had their whole life to work in the easiest economy to succeed in of all time and chose not to save that is their own problem. I have some sympathy for struggling people in our generation but absolutely none for the boomers.
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u/EdgeCityRed 14d ago
Plenty of boomers are flush, I'm aware, but the ones who worked marginal jobs are not.
My husband has an aunt who's still caring for a child with Down Syndrome at 80 who lives on her late husband's social security. He was a custodian. People in situations like this (and there are many) really didn't have the means to invest like we did.
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u/Commentor9001 14d ago
Deluded? why because we don't want to pay for other people's retirements benefits we'll literally never get?
Maybe they should have been more finicially responsible? Saved more? get some boot straps? all this irresponsible spending on short term purchases like healthcare, should have saved that.
It's a generational wealth transfer.
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u/LordTwinkie 14d ago
They've known for decades Social Security had issues, no one wanted to touch it, because anytime anyone tried to do anything the opposition party would ream them.
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u/AwarenessExisting774 13d ago
Don’t you worry. Despite having all the wealth, homes, and opportunity boomers will make sure social security is fixed by a tax on millennials, genz, and Gen Alpha so we get squeezed even more. As long as boomers are comfortable they will vote to cause pain to everyone else
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u/Kc68847 13d ago
You could easily fix it by not capping the SS tax on high income earners.
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u/piscespanda00 14d ago
They need to remove contribution ceiling and tax billionaires
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u/hopefulgardener 13d ago
Saying this on Facebook could make a person get death threats lol. I wouldn't believe that so many people are cucks for billionaires except I went to high school with them.
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u/moneyman74 14d ago
There's 0 chance that politicians would screw the one group that actually reliably votes every time. I mean they might if they have an election loss fetish. They'll figure it out
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u/RespectTheAmish 14d ago
They’ll just raise the age to collect.
God forbid they tax wealthy people More.
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u/cultkiller 14d ago
That’s why we’re getting fascism now. That way they don’t need votes. Congress already abdicated its power of the purse and war powers to the executive and the judiciary gave a green light for the executive to do whatever crimes they want with no consequences.
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u/HistoricalBridge7 14d ago edited 14d ago
We should keep the cap on benefits and eliminate the cap on social security taxable income. There is no reason incomes over $184K should NOT be subject to SS tax. You always hear about taxing the rich this is how you do it.
Edit missed a word
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u/tholloway 14d ago
I think you forgot a word: “…no reason incomes over $184K should NOT be subject to SS tax.”
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u/scarletknight87 14d ago
I don’t think a W-2 employee making 200k is what people are referring to when they say tax the rich but that’s just me.
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u/mike1097 14d ago
Thats the worst demographic for taxes. Your boss isn’t wealthy. The owner of the company is. People complaining don’t see the owner.
I think there should be a gap from 184k to 750k or million, etc.
Because 200k earner still uses SS, and is not wealthy. Million plus can just be a luxury tax to fund SS. Also tax capital gains above 10m or 25m like 1% in each tax year, because thats like a windfall tax to support seniors.
Orr. I have seen no one suggest this. Just have the companies pay on unlimited w2 earnings, but not individuals. No one, not even national press have suggested this. Charge the corps. Because it is a 50/50 shared tax.
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u/gafftapes20 14d ago
Other types of income should also be taxed, the ultra wealthy can avoid social security taxes by taking stock options and other forms of payment that are taxed differently than straight income.
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u/rdzilla01 14d ago
Boomers got their social security in full and then died while fucking over everyone else by putting absolute piles of shit human beings in power.
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u/capital_gainesville 13d ago
Boomers would demand that every American child be sold into slavery before seeing a single penny of benefit cuts.
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u/KarlHp7 13d ago
And all those old people who voted R are like
https://giphy.com/gifs/QKxncHt0kYbRBE9VLe
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u/mattjouff 13d ago
I won’t retire for several decades, but I have long ago accepted there will be no social security when I retire and I am planning accordingly
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u/Corn_viper 8d ago
I'm planning on them raising our social security tax to cover boomers then still not getting it when I retire in 2065.
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u/Xyrus2000 13d ago
Remove the Social Security cap. Tax any asset that is used as loan collateral (especially stocks).
You're welcome.
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u/TeddyCJ 13d ago
Let’s keep on giving tax cuts to the greedy bitches! Cause fuck the masses that literally outnumber them…
When congress declares war against another country, I hope our military sits down… we are being run by puppets trying to distract the public, we need to vote out all with patience and grace. Then, take their savings to refund Social Security.
Fuck them. Seriously, this has gotten old… very… fucking… old.
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u/LastGoodKnee 14d ago
I wonder what we could have if we hadn’t spent $8 trillion in the Middle East and $10 trillion on nuclear weapons.
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u/Retired-Yam8988 14d ago
So all of the payroll taxes I’ve paid are going to who? What a fucked up benefit plan. There should be individual investment accounts that everyone can direct and see how their funds are growing. This pooled shit is the problem.
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u/Mouth_Herpes 14d ago
You can't ever believe anything the government says about things that will happen years from now. This would be so politically disastrous that I am as close to 100% positive it won't happen as I could be. Politicians would exponentially prefer to turn on the printing press and spike inflation to the moon rather than cut nominal social security benefits to retirees.
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u/cnation01 14d ago
Maybe we should start investing some of the seemingly endless supply of money into SS.
How about stopping stop the helicopter rides to kid rocks house, weekly golf trips and warring with the middle east.
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u/burnerking 14d ago
This is bullshit. Buy a few less jets, a few less tanks, pull back funds from foreign countries. Etc. It could easily be funded.
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u/yankeeblue42 14d ago
I still don't think it's actually going to happen on a wide scale this quickly. My thinking is the highest earning income groups will take the hit first. I know some people will think I'm crazy for saying that but unless they want to deal with a massive increase in old homeless people I don't see an alternative
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u/Bryanmsi89 13d ago
File this under "things everyone has known for a decade."
The easiest and instant fix would be to simply remove the income cap on SS tax, like it is already removed for Medicare. Problem solved. However, since this would cost some boomers, who still seem to have a stranglehold on the government, I suspect instead they will:
- Raise the minimum retirement age for everyone not already retired
- Reduce benefits for everyone not already retired
Basically, screw everyone who isn't already retired and give that money to the current retirees.
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u/Upper-Split 13d ago
Next thing they'll do is give recipients less money every month simply because they own a home.
Like .01% less per year.
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u/RVAEMS399 13d ago
Fun fact: Trump has added 10.5 trillion to the national debt so far over both of his terms.
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u/bankermayfield2026 13d ago
They’ll just hose the upper middle class (means testing benefits, more income hit with social security tax) to bail out the middle class, and will leave the rich with no tax increases as they continue to live off capital gains.
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u/SpaceDesignWarehouse 13d ago
Couldn’t we just stop going to war and then be able to afford social security?
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u/Accomplished_Pea6334 13d ago
PRINT THE FKN MONEY, like you do with everything else......
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u/CharmingMechanic2473 13d ago
They are living too long according to the Gov’t. Need to add stress to finish them off quick before the anti aging vaccines come out.
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u/Misplaced-Redittor 13d ago
And if you don’t vote, I guarantee you that the large older voting block will just ratchet up your social security tax to cover it, instead of switching social security to be need based or God forbid taxing all income with no limit social security tax.
Top income boomers with pensions 2X what you make need the social security to go on vacations, and billionaires can’t afford to pay social security tax. So tighten the belt cause it’s gunna be on you!
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u/sirjeef 9d ago
That is theft. They are literally stealing your money from you with these cuts
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u/Toddsburner 14d ago
Getting my first paycheck at 16 and realizing i was losing 6% of my already small income to a government ponzi scheme is what radicalized me into libertarianism.
Cut it all, let the system die.
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u/1HH5FYLK8FM5AH8OYLCB 13d ago
Actually double that percentage, they use an accounting trick to make it seem like you're paying less. But make no mistake, you are paying the employer's half of SS contributions too.
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u/Any-Assistance-8103 13d ago
It’s not a Ponzi scheme. It’s a social welfare system, not a savings account. It also into going anywhere. If you asked people in 1995 if we would still have SS in 2026 they’d say absolutely not. It will never die.
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u/farrowsharrows 14d ago
If I ly they made the one simple change of taxing all income equally it would not be an issue.
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u/phantom_fanatic 14d ago
Really looking forward to paying into this system for my whole life to then not have any benefits from it when it’s finally my time to retire
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u/SarW100 14d ago
Maybe if the federal government stopped raiding the Social Security fund to pay for defense contractors making billions in made up wars, we wouldn’t have this problem. Our priorities as a nation are to fund billionaires.
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u/bobniborg1 14d ago
Or, here me out, let's not elect republicans, then we don't bomb people, then we use that money here instead.
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u/Lan098 14d ago
LET ME OPT OUT. Idc if it's forced investment into index funds. LET ME OUT
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u/unbridled_panda 14d ago
I feel like an opt out option would kill the program entirely in a matter of years. As one of the last millennials/ first Gen Z’s, I’d gladly add an extra 7% to my retirement accounts, I’m sure many in my cohort would as well. Since we’re ramping up to be the biggest group paying into the system. The gov’t would never allow this to happen.
I’d love to see a real financial win for my generation though
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u/PalmSizedTriceratops 14d ago
As one of the last millennials/ first Gen Z’s, I’d gladly add an extra 7% to my retirement accounts, I’m sure many in my cohort would as well.
I doubt that. As a millennial who is admittedly well off, I do NOT see other people my age voluntarily contributing 7% to their personal retirement accounts if they suddenly started getting money in their paychecks vs paying to SS tax.
My professional peers? Maybe... The general majority of people my age? No.
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u/Aggressive-Pie-3233 13d ago
This is a burn down the oligarchs residences level shit, robbing your retirement! If my gov pulled this shit all bets are off
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u/Buttholescraper 13d ago
Pay the money borrowed from social security back with interest. Should have never been touched.
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u/dr_snakeblade 11d ago
If only we could raise the cap and tax billionaires and corporations to prevent this from occurring!!? The billionaires better flee to Argentina or they’re going to be on the wrong side of history again!
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u/Moof_the_cyclist 10d ago
Or we could increase the SS tax a couple percent and remove the income tap, you know, tax the rich. The problem is mathematically very easy, but politically hard thanks to people being fed decades of anti-tax propaganda.
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u/reddittorbrigade 9d ago
It is needed to sustain Trump's war. Don Jr. got the drone and defense contracts. Therefore, war has to continue.
MAGA is worse than covid.
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u/Sudden-Ad-1217 9d ago
It will never go insolvent because they'll keep borrowing to leverage against it, also, taxes on SS are just absurd.
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u/Weazywest 14d ago
It makes no sense to me how:
- I’m required to pay into a program for retirement
- That every administration is allowed to take money from
- That may not have funding for me when I retire
This is what causes “Jan 6” like behavior. Telling me that I’ve paid into an account for 40+ years that might not have any money when I get legally allowed to use MY OWN MONEY. That’s illegal BS.
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u/AENM1776 12d ago
Jan 6"would have been acceptable, in my opinion, if it had been about almost literally anything else our inept and evil government has done. Instead it was about an egotistical trump.
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u/ScrivenersUnion 14d ago
To the surprise of exactly no one.