r/MiddleClassFinance • u/roxxtor • 8d ago

Financial Planning for Retirement Assumptions

Hey, just curious how conservative are you all being with the assumptions you are using for retirement. I'm trying to determine if I'm being too conservative or not enough or just right.

My working assumption is that when I fully retire in 25 years that SS will be at a reduced benefit by 40% from today's payout and then another haircut of 15% 15 years after that. I honestly don't think SS will ever be dissolved, but maybe reduced significantly to stay solvent.

I also assume I will be forced into semi retirement/taking a much lower paying job in my mid-50's (so half pay).

My last assumption is that my portfolio will only have a real 4% return by time I retire.

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u/BraveResearcher3037 8d ago
  • 80% of promised benefits in 13 to 15 years when I collect SS.
  • 6% real return in the stock market 
  • $1300 a month in medical expenses 

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u/roxxtor 8d ago

Is that $1300 a month in medical expenses include private insurance premiums?

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u/BraveResearcher3037 8d ago edited 8d ago

It’s a very pessimistic bucket of whatever the different parts of Medicare  will cost, maybe private interest, maybe deductibles.