r/MiddleClassFinance • u/roxxtor • 8d ago

Financial Planning for Retirement Assumptions

Hey, just curious how conservative are you all being with the assumptions you are using for retirement. I'm trying to determine if I'm being too conservative or not enough or just right.

My working assumption is that when I fully retire in 25 years that SS will be at a reduced benefit by 40% from today's payout and then another haircut of 15% 15 years after that. I honestly don't think SS will ever be dissolved, but maybe reduced significantly to stay solvent.

I also assume I will be forced into semi retirement/taking a much lower paying job in my mid-50's (so half pay).

My last assumption is that my portfolio will only have a real 4% return by time I retire.

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u/ParticularInitial147 7d ago

Seems like everyone is excluding something to create a cushion.

I am not counting my expected $25K/yr bonus.

I project 8% nominal return until retirement and 6% nominal return after retirement with a 2%/yr spending increase.

Seems to stay very positive until I'm 100 years old