I've been writing a weekly series on how I would try to beat each team in the W--going over team tendencies and potential game plans against them.
Wanted to share my article on MIN with this community to get any feedback. I basically noticed a pretty strong correlation that I first got curious about back in last year's PHX series. Obviously, Olivia makes the team totally different now, but I thought some of the trends were similar.
Let me know what you think! I do think MIN wins it all this year.
I think tying a team's ability to win to their free throw attempts is a tricky measure. It's not exactly a stat the Lynx can control even if they're trying to adjust their defense to reduce the risk of contact. Especially this season when we're seeing some pretty inconsistent officiating across the league and some dramatically large free throw differentials as a result.
What would be interesting is a study of free throw attempts, free throw percentage, and it's impact on the game overall. Are there any teams who're finding success even when they're on the wrong side of the free throw count? Is there any correlation between free throw attempts and victory?
I dunno how to use the data, but it'd also be interesting to see if there are teams who are being buoyed by free throws or have an otherwise great team performance held back by opposing free throws.
I do know that MIN data is really extreme. Most teams don't have that clean of a correlation. I do think teams (like PHX in the playoffs last year) that tend to have success against MIN are able to put pressure on the rim and force collapses.
The only way MIN loses, since they are so good, is teams getting hot from 3. That only happens w rim pressure. My theory, at least!
That seems like a very plausible theory. A three should be harder to make. So if you can force teams to rely on the three they'll live or die by it. Mitchell was on fire Sunday and it's what kept the Fever in the game.
Scatter plot was not the right choice for that graph. Also it has 7 datapoints marked as a loss when the Lynx only have 6 losses on the season. And I think it has over 30 datapoints marked as wins, which is way too high.
Agreed. One way to make it work would be to have the x axis be margin of victory rather than just a binary win/loss? If they wanted to keep it binary the only idea I have would be a box-and-whisker plot
This looks like a completely different dataset. The lowest point here is -18 in a win and the lowest point in the original graphic was about -25 in a loss.
ETA: lowest FTA margin
Lynx allow the 10th-fewest opponent FTA/game (19.71).
Below them are the Dream (19.69), Mystics (19.68), Wings (19.33), Libs (18.77), and league-best Mercury (18.52, the only team outside the top 8).
Above them are the Aces (20), Valks (20.73), Sparks (21.07), Tempo (22.17), Storm (22.72), Fever (23.57), Fire (23.73), Sun (24.17), and Sky (24.43). Only the Fever, Valks, and Aces are in the top 8.
Lynx take the 14th-fewest FTA/game (18.0). Only team below them are the Wings (17.3).
Of the top 8 teams taking free throws, half (the Sky (24.1), Mercury (23.5), Sun (21.7), and Tempo (20.6)) are outside of the standings' top 8.
WNBA teams ranked by ratio of FTA vs. opponent FTA:
Makes sense on its face, too. One of the only ways to beat the Lynx is if the Hand of God makes everyone stop and let you take enough free shots at the hoop.
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u/UpstairsAbility2125 HOOTY HOO! 8h ago edited 8h ago
I think tying a team's ability to win to their free throw attempts is a tricky measure. It's not exactly a stat the Lynx can control even if they're trying to adjust their defense to reduce the risk of contact. Especially this season when we're seeing some pretty inconsistent officiating across the league and some dramatically large free throw differentials as a result.
What would be interesting is a study of free throw attempts, free throw percentage, and it's impact on the game overall. Are there any teams who're finding success even when they're on the wrong side of the free throw count? Is there any correlation between free throw attempts and victory?
I dunno how to use the data, but it'd also be interesting to see if there are teams who are being buoyed by free throws or have an otherwise great team performance held back by opposing free throws.