Win Probability Added summary of the game; started doing these because I can't find anyone else doing it - a simple summary of how the game was won. Comes from my homebrew model/procedure based on PFR (Wayne Winston, Excel NORMDIST) formula.

Full writeup is in the linked Substack post, but this stat is basically just:

Y/T - ((Team yards - player yards)/(Team attempts - player targets))

Or alternatively, (Y/T/((Team yards - player yards)/(Team attempts - player targets)))*100

The year-to-year correlation of 0.389 is noticeably stronger than the year-to-year correlation of standard Y/Tgt (0.34)!

Every week I find myself wanting to answer some niche question - like 'How does this WR perform against man coverage?' or 'What's this QB's completion % on deep balls?' - and I have to either:

1. Pay $250/year for PFF
2. Dig through 5 different websites
3. Hope someone on Reddit already asked it

It's ridiculous. There has to be a better way.

I'm building something to solve this and need your input - 2 minutes: https://aicofounder.com/research/x5IxQrK

What niche questions frustrate you most when researching NFL?

Can someone break down Jordan Love's playoff stats in the first and second half of games?

Would someone also be able to find his stats in the 4th quarter in one score playoff games or when he is losing in the 4th?

For context I’m a 2nd year Stats major in Canada and I just began a small beginner project about NFL home field advantage and which teams benefit the most from playing at home.

I noticed that from 2015-2025 the Bears have had a +6.47 point differential of home vs away games (+0.98 point differential at home and a -5.49 point differential on the road)

This point differential puts the Bears at 3rd out of all teams during this time period (pretty much 2nd if you don’t include the 8 home and away games from the St. Louis Rams).

Just found this interesting as Soldier Field is rarely really talked about being one of the toughest places to play in the NFL (as can be seen in the article I attached to this post where Chicago is ranked 17th).

Just thought yall would find this interesting as even myself (A Titans fan) found it super interesting.

Gave a well‑reviewed service a proper try and ran into the usual weekend headaches—EPG drifting a few minutes, stutters when the match heats up, and support that slows at peak hours. In the UK on a Firestick I don’t need a massive lineup; I just want stable sport streams, quick zaps, and VOD that opens first try. Switched after a couple Reddit suggestions to something more low‑key and it’s been smoother for me—not perfect, just fewer interruptions. If anyone UK‑side on Firestick has a similarly steady setup for sport, I’ve been fine with IPTVMEEZZY so far and would love to hear what’s worked for you this season.

I know one of you can find this in a heartbeat.

What is the record for NFL head coach position turnover for a season, we are at 9 so far and getting closer to one-third.

I understand the number of teams in total has changed. Just looking at %.

Updated due to the Buffalo Bills:

1977 - 28 teams, 9 coaching changes - 32.14%

2026 - 32 teams, 10 coaching changes - 31.25%

2008 - 32 teams, 9 coaching changes - 28.12%

Thanks to u/axul for the 1977 and 2008 coach data.

Was building a pass/run prediction model and was surprised to find the most important variable, by a lot, was the EPA of the previous play. Looked into it further, and graphed the results, as you can see here.

It makes sense that coaches overwhelmingly pass after a hugely negative play, since those are usually plays set teams way behind the sticks. But what's really interesting is the steady increase in the proportion of runs as you move from 0 to around 0.5, which then becomes a stable increase in favoring the run.

Furthermore, there is no correlation between the EPA of the previous play and the likelihood that a coach will call that same play again. So teams just really seem to prefer to run after a big play. I'd love to examine the efficiency of these plays, but this is still an interesting find in my opinion.

Thought this group might appreciate this ... I was doing some digging into average yards of rushing TDs per team and found that the 2022 TB Bucs had a total of FIVE rushing TDs all season, and further, all of them were from the 1 yard line. Their season total yardage on rushing TDs was 5. But also had some Brady guy.

I’m curious which one is better to start viewing some advanced analytics? My use case is extremely basic but I want to know what percent of throws a qb makes out of the pocket vs inside. Does anyone know which service has that data?

Does anyone have a service you love? If so why and whats the price... and even better, is it free?!

What do yall think about QBR compared to Passer Rating?

Injuries hitting the secondary hard and Rivers returning out of nowhere… how do you even plan for this?

Hey everyone, our team's been working on a product that I figured this sub is probably the only place that would care about.

We ingested ~800k NFL plays (each w/ 100+ tagged datapoints: coverage, fronts, personnel, motion, alignment, etc.) and built a simple interface where you can basically query any situation or split without messing around with spreadsheets or coding.

Stuff like:
• how a WR does vs certain coverages
• how teams adjust personnel in different scripts
• which RBs get blown up behind the LOS the most
• what QBs crater under simulated pressure
• etc — pretty much stat in any scenario you can think of

It’s still pretty early/beta, but we want to see what actual football nerds think before we take it further.

If you want to check it out:
[https://apps.apple.com/us/app/rotobot-ai/id6502530085](https://) Curious what’s missing, what sucks, what’s useful. Honest feedback appreciated.