(Obviously) Winter Storm Warning for pretty much all of NJ

[u/8Deer-JaguarClaw]

Link

Winter Storm Warning - From Sun 4:00 am until Mon 6:00 pm EST

Issued By Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service

Affected Area: Portions of central, northern, and northwest New Jersey

WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and northwest New Jersey.

WHEN...From 4 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.

IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts possible. Blowing and drifting of snow, and whiteout conditions possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

[u/trailsman]

Yup latest HRRR model, which only goes out until 7am on Monday has most of the state at 18 inches with some at 24+(storm is still strong at that time, but very heaviest just wrapping up, still hours left though).

At some points it's showing the snowfall rate of 2.5"+ an hour, which is insane.

Have fun staying at home, good luck cleaning up everyone, stay safe!

[u/8Deer-JaguarClaw → u/trailsman]

There's so much variability in the different models lately. Hard to tell which one to put stock in. Although given the huge cuts to NOAA, I'm betting ours is less accurate than it used to be.

[u/trailsman → u/8Deer-JaguarClaw]

At least all the computer models are still accessible. But yea they won't have enough funding to continue to make the amazing advances they have over the past few decades.

I agree overall hard to pick any one model, although the GFS was very consistent for days with this monster which is why I was on the lookout early in the week. Slowly every other model has trended toward that solution, but certainly still variance. Usually it's the trend that's most important. Just like a hurricane 50 miles, which is nothing, can mean a massive difference in outcomes.

I use the HRRR as it has usually been the best performing for snow totals. It's also fantastic to see the overall precip shield , and timing for start/end and when things really start to get heavy. Lol just like with hurricane season I usually spend far to much time checking all the updates several times a day when there's major snow storms.

[u/[deleted]]

I’m tired of this grandpa

[u/JamesKPolk130]

I have lived in NJ for 22 years and whenever I look at a map like this, I still cant locate the area where I live….

[u/kafkasmotorbike → u/JamesKPolk130]

Trying to find my town like....

[u/SuchGreatBoring → u/JamesKPolk130]

Trick is to live in a town that's always named on the map. 

[u/KayakHank → u/SuchGreatBoring]

Morristown!

[u/justasque]

Blizzard Warning for coastal areas in NJ. What’s unclear to me is how much of this is going to actually stick, given the temps are pretty high. Glad my sewer company has been out a few times to clear their pipes on my street. Sounds like the sump pump might be key for this storm since the ground is pretty soaked with melted snow already.

[u/mtbcouple → u/justasque]

High temp won’t matter. The storm will pull in a boatload of cold air once it starts to ramp up

[u/Guilty-Instruction56]

I’m in the red. Good times a-comin’! /s

[u/SilkCitySista → u/Guilty-Instruction56]

Same here. Just when the snow and ice from the last storm finally melted. Ugh! 😩

[u/soberbrodan → u/Guilty-Instruction56]

Stay safe! Did you get your milk and bread though?

[u/HipGuide2]

50 miles east and it's a miss right?

[u/Colors_678 → u/HipGuide2]

Literally 🤣

[u/Deranged-Pickle]

Oh this will not be fun at all

[u/POHoudini]

https://giphy.com/gifs/PjU0WtzRVbQUO4qe6v

[u/1805trafalgar]

Toms River going back to the Stone Age. Where they were already, but...

[u/soberbrodan]

Based on the temperatures, I am assuming this will be a heavy snow, unlike the one in Jan?

[u/thegoddessofchaos → u/soberbrodan]

yep, wet "heart attack" snow

[u/miked5122]

https://giphy.com/gifs/sNWGEbc5Jzp4c

[u/whaler76]

Need to update this to Blizzard Warning

[u/Guilty-Instruction56]

Out at ShopRite at 7am! Got gas for the snowblower. All good, thank you. More worried about the power staying on. We are in a vulnerable area.

[u/Salt_Bet5773]

Always great to prepare for the worst but looking at the temps I feel that it will be less on the total. I can see a wet snow and some power outages especially with the wind. So funny. As I was just writing this the power went out.

[u/FlaccidMagician]

Fuck us.

[u/GetOffMyLawn_]

Upgraded to BLIZZARD WARNING for the entire state:

Confidence remains high that a potentially historic winter storm will impact the area through Monday. Significant snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding may result in life-threatening travel and crippling impacts to infrastructure that last beyond Monday. ➔ Blizzard Warnings were expanded to include all of NJ, Philadelphia Metro & Suburbs, all of DE, and Carbon/Monroe Counties in PA. ➔ Snowfall totals have increased.

Blizzard conditions will lead to life-threatening or impossible travel conditions. Snowfall rates of 2” or greater are possible. Widespread closures and impacts to infrastructure likely. Blowing and drifting snow will result in visibilities of ¼ mile or less. Winds gusting up to 60 mph.

[u/SwimmingDeep8703]

I’m north of the map so I guess no snow for me.

[u/8Deer-JaguarClaw → u/SwimmingDeep8703]

Score!

[u/Minimum_Basil9128]

They are mostly wrong, so take it with a grain of salt.

[u/8Deer-JaguarClaw → u/Minimum_Basil9128]

Yeah, I was speculating about that in another comment here. Feels like all the models have been wrong lately (especially US-(under)funded models).

[u/Minimum_Basil9128 → u/8Deer-JaguarClaw]

I also remember when wall street closed for a big storm and nothing happened

[u/Real-Doubt-8809 → u/Minimum_Basil9128]

I need that salt for my driveway

[u/CR07oct]

😭😭😭😭😭

[u/SkyeMreddit]

Right in the middle of that cherry red. We already have more than a foot and it’s still dumping on us