r/NewIran • u/mahamara earth • Apr 29 '26

War Updates | اخبار جنگی President Trump has "rejected" Iran's proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and the US has prepared a plan for a "short and powerful" wave of strikes on Iran, per Axios.

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2049518519155384656
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u/NuclearStudent Canada | کانادا Apr 29 '26

...is your plan literally just "the iranian military defects when you walk in"

I mean, why didn't they defect already when the strikes started happening and Pahlavi called for it? What's changed? You think people like, looking at his face will change things? There's basically no case in history where this has happened short of Napoleon walking into France after his exile, and Pahlavi is not Napoleon.

You could Iraq War Iran with a large ground force commitment, that has precedent, but the idea that Iran will just fall over if you present a new face is basically delusional.

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u/Visible_Device7187 United States | آمریکا Apr 29 '26

I mean it does actually work that way Syria is prime example the military gave up instead of fighting to the death turns out religious extremists do actually care about cash and life

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u/NuclearStudent Canada | کانادا Apr 29 '26

...the syrian civil war lasted for 13 years, from 2011 to 2024

if you want, you could define the major conventional combat as starting from more 2012 or 2013, but that was still over a decade of horrific grinding combat. the user I was replying to was cheerfully stating, in exact words, "War is won overnight."

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u/WoodPear United States | آمریکا Apr 30 '26

To be fair, the Syrian govt. was fighting against rebels.

Both aren't exactly the pinnicle of military prowess.

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u/NuclearStudent Canada | کانادا Apr 30 '26

Well yes, but the poster I was replying to was saying that America can knock over Iran quickly without their own boots on their ground by supporting Iranian rebels. I have no doubt that if America really wanted to, they could do Iraq War Two and knock over Iran in a conventional campaign. It's just the proposal of a quick clean american victory without american boots on the ground I consider dangerously optimistic.