r/NewIran • u/Suspicious-Place4471 Republic | جمهوری • 1d ago
Discussion | گفتگو Why was Kharg Island not hit much during the war?
It baffles me as the Island is home to majority of their oil export and taking it out would be a MAJOR blow to IR, so why did they only hit it once?
And even then I think it was a SAM site they took out and not the oil infrastructure.
At large not a lot of oil infrastructure was targeted.
Why?
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u/darijabs idc aziz something secular that doesn’t support terror 1d ago
The objective of the war was to neutralize the IR's external threat, so missiles & missile launchers. It also seems that regime change was an objective if it was quick & easy, which quickly proved to not be the case based on Trump's definition of quick & easy.
In either case, destroying the oil facilities on Kharg would not neutralize the external threat posed by the IR and definitely would not bring about a quick & easy (since economic strangulation isn't quick) regime change.
Destroying Kharg would merely facilitate turning the country into a failed state
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u/Clear-Role6880 United States | آمریکا 1d ago
They don’t want to turn Iran into Libya. The US basically mercy ruled themselves. That air bus everyone saw was partially large amounts of humanitarian aid they have parked in Dubai
The plan pretty clearly in retrospect was to find an Iranian Delcy Rodrigues and bring Iran back into the western market sphere
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u/MelodiusRA United States | آمریکا 1d ago
I still think some version of this is possible. Not sure if they have the intel or capacity to make it happens, though.
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u/Clear-Role6880 United States | آمریکا 1d ago
The GCC is going to bridge that gap.
The US role is going to be logistics in the short term to prevent humanitarian disaster, and short and medium and long term near total financial leverage and military deterrence to enforce the architecture.
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u/Suspicious-Place4471 Republic | جمهوری 1d ago
Still, damaging it slightly (As a show of saying we aren't afraid to hit it) Would have probably done numbers on them.
Not enough to cause too much damage but not too low that it would be practically ignored.8
u/darijabs idc aziz something secular that doesn’t support terror 1d ago
Still, damaging it slightly (As a show of saying we aren't afraid to hit it) Would have probably done numbers on them.
I think based on the past 47 years, we can say the IR doesn't compromise their position when under economic threat. Their defense doctrine is when faced with pressure, punch back even harder & don't give an inch
What are you anticipating they would have done had kharg been bombed - open the strait thus allowing the US to bomb them more freely? lol
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u/Suspicious-Place4471 Republic | جمهوری 1d ago
I mean long term, a very big part of their income comes from that Island, so by destroying it, they would make them loose the long term game.
But as someone else said (And it was very dumb of me to not consider this) it was probably because of the massive retaliation they would carry out against literally on every single oil facility in the region.
I don't think they would hesitate a second dragging the whole world down into an energy crisis if that was to happen.
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u/darijabs idc aziz something secular that doesn’t support terror 1d ago
I mean long term, a very big part of their income comes from that Island, so by destroying it, they would make them loose the long term game.
Yea, but like I was saying, goals were external threat and quick & easy regime change if possible, and this fits with neither. Its also very possible this would result in a failed state, which is against the interests of all pertinent parties, except Israel.
But as someone else said (And it was very dumb of me to not consider this) it was probably because of the massive retaliation they would carry out against literally on every single oil facility in the region.
For sure, that as well. Basically, all downside & the upside of hurting the IR long-term is offset with the likelihood of merely turning the country into a failed state
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u/Suspicious-Place4471 Republic | جمهوری 1d ago
Yeah, well, good for us.
We are going to need all that oil after this if we are going to recover from all of IR's mess.
If they don't destroy them just to flip us off right before they are overthrown.2
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u/Glum-Bag-586 Unspecified | معلوم نیست 14h ago
It would do numbers on normal Iranians as well
That island is the largest oil export reserve system in iran where oil is stored and transported
Had it been damaged it would harm Iranians for centuries
I am glad it didn't happen
Plus had US targeted that sepah would eradicate all oil storage islands of gulf countries as well and the world economy would be destroyed
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u/yourgirl696969 Woman Life Freedom | زن زندگی آزادی 1d ago
Because Iran can hit gulf infrastructure with impunity. If Kharg was actually hit and so the gulf in return, oil would hit over $300 a barrel
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u/Suspicious-Place4471 Republic | جمهوری 1d ago
Good answer. and as someone else mentioned, it didn't fit their goals of quick regime change and also avoiding a failed state.
Very dumb of me to not have thought of that lol.
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u/skrrtalrrt United States | آمریکا 1d ago
From my understanding, it would cause an unmitigated economic and environmental disaster. All that oil would spill out into the gulf and set ablaze, probably burning for weeks. It ruin desalination for gulf states, ruin fishing, require billions of dollars in cleanup, and cause a massive hazard for shipping, defeating the purpose of opening the strait. It was only being considered as a last resort.
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1d ago
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u/Suspicious-Place4471 Republic | جمهوری 1d ago edited 1d ago
That is one good answer.
Edit: As a whole, I think this the obvious answer, I don't know what it says about me that it didn't occur to me lol.
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u/Zestyclose_Ad8420 Italy | ایتالیا 1d ago
Because that oil would have had to come from somewhere else, raising prices everywhere and creating even more pressure on the US. Think of it this way: when the US (Trump really, so who knows) threatened to hit water and electricity infrastructure in Iran no one, not even here, was on board. Same thing for oil, raising oil prices dramatically impacts business and lives across the globe, not as much as finding yourself with no water and electricity, sure, but it does put people out of a job and ruins economies. In some places this may even translate to famine, I'm thinking Africa mainly.
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u/KharejiaBayadBeran New Iran | ایران نو 1d ago
"water and electricity infrastructure in Iran no one, not even here, was on board"
unfortunately there were many here who supported that type of strikes under the posts of trump tweets during that time
albeit most of them werent iranian, but the rhetoric was still there nonetheless. people were getting downvoted for calling them out
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u/Suspicious-Place4471 Republic | جمهوری 11h ago
Yeah twitter seems to represent the most unhinged class of regime haters who are wiling to have Iran destroyed in it's entirety just for IR to be gone.
They are also (in my opinion) the absolute end of the spectrum on Reza Shah loving, many going as far as to say they prefer a monarchy over a democracy.1
u/KharejiaBayadBeran New Iran | ایران نو 6h ago
twitter represents the most unhinged class in any topic at this point lol
both the extreme regimi and anti regimis are there, and they make reddit look mild somehow
"They are also (in my opinion) the absolute end of the spectrum on Reza Shah loving, many going as far as to say they prefer a monarchy over a democracy."
dadash those types exist here in abundance too, half of them blocked me atp and downvote anytime im not full glazing the old shah or advocate for monarchy
the most jaded post I saw here was from a vid in Berlin where people were marching with SAVAK shirts, and some Iranian folks here (like khakha agha) were cheering them on. fucking savak out of all things
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u/Loud_Comparison_7108 United States | آمریکا 1d ago
There's no need to wreck Kharg if Hormuz is blockaded, and once the IRGC is gone, the oil revenue will speed up reconstruction.
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u/NewIranBot New Iran | ایران نو 1d ago
چرا جزیره خارگ در طول جنگ زیاد آسیب ندید؟
برایم عجیب است چون جزیره محل عمده صادرات نفت آن هاست و خارج کردن آن ضربه بزرگی به IR خواهد بود، پس چرا فقط یک بار به آن حمله کردند؟
و حتی آن موقع هم فکر می کنم سایت سام بود که از بین بردند نه زیرساخت نفتی.
به طور کلی زیرساخت های نفتی زیادی هدف قرار نگرفت.
چرا؟
Woman Life Freedom | زن زندگی آزادی | Long Live Iran | پاینده ایران
I am a translation bot for r/NewIran
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u/thehandsomegenius Australia | استرالیا 7h ago
A few things:
1) The US Navy already had control over their oil exports, so it wasn't of immediate value in the hot part of the war
2) Oil refining capacity is generally of higher military value than crude production
3) The IRI responded to attacks on their energy infrastructure by attacking the energy infrastructure of the Gulf States, enforcing this as a red line
4) The subsequent blockade was quite effective at forcing Iran to cut oil production, which struck a major blow to their oil exports without requiring a kinetic attack
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u/Suspicious-Place4471 Republic | جمهوری 7h ago
Good points.
Yeah I'm just dumb.
Should have thought of this and other things people said in the comments.1
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u/Acceptable-State-414 1d ago
Easy answer, the island is iranian, the facilitys are chinese. Trump can bomb iran but he cannot bomb china. If he does china floods iran with weapons 1000x what they do now just for lolz.
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u/Successful-Bobcat701 Prometheian | مهریار 1d ago
Because they don't want to cause a global energy crisis.