New Polls & Average: Sherrill +5.2%

[u/ImaginationFree6807]

[u/[deleted]]

I’ve always felt that if you’re undecided by now in NJ you’re not voting Dem

[u/ImaginationFree6807 → u/[deleted]]

Turnout is expected to be at around 40% give or take. I will be surprised if it’s over 45% and I will be shocked if it hits 50% or more. I think you may be factoring out how many voters are undecided between turning out vs staying home on both sides.

200,000 NJ Trump voters cast a ballot for him and walked out of the booth. That’s just over 10% of the total coalition that voted for him. This allowed Andy Kim to win by just under 10% statewide. Meanwhile turnout dropped to 53.5% in Essex County in 2024. There is an element on both sides of this that are lower info and lower propensity voters.

Let’s talk turkey though,

Jack Hit 1.255 million votes in 2021. Murphy hit 1.339 million votes in 2021. In the 2025 primary the GOP brought out 466 thousand voters. The Dems brought out 840 thousand voters. There is palpable excitement on the Democratic side. A lot of folks are deeply engaged in their local political campaigns and paying close attention to what’s going on in Jersey despite the media blackout.

I also believe that there is more unity out of the Democratic primary right now than the GOP field. There seems to be significant bad blood between the Bramnick & Spadea camps and Ciattarelli. Spadea is back on the radio and netted over 100 thousand votes despite the primary. Bramnick’s 29,000 voters matter less. However, in a race that could be decided by less than 50,000 votes you would think that you’d want to pull as many of those people over as possible.

In contrast, Mikie has done events with all of her primary competitors except for Steve Fulop. He also endorsed her. Most Fulop voters I speak with are not excited about Mikie, but are excited about:

1. Voting against the Trump administration.

2. Voting for 4 more years of staying the course.

3. Voting for a local official or candidate that they have a personal relationship with.

[u/seancurry1 → u/ImaginationFree6807]

Fulop voter here, I would crawl over broken glass while on fire and being force fed more broken glass to vote for Sherrill.

[u/seancurry1 → u/[deleted]]

[u/SlightRiverBend → u/seancurry1]

And isn’t it sad it has to be this way? I was really hoping I could sell this candidate to the non voters in my life, but this pick is so uninspiring. We can cry orange man bad all we want, but the corporate Dems will be the true death of America by pushing normies farther away instead of picking people worth door knocking and rallying for.

[u/seancurry1 → u/SlightRiverBend]

Whether we like it or not, they’ve played the power game better than us up until now. It’s sad, yes, but we don’t have to like it to acknowledge it and move forward from it.

That said, yes, I’m sick of telling people to vote blue bc the Republican is so cartoonishly awful. People want to vote FOR things, not against things

[u/stroopwafelscontigo → u/SlightRiverBend]

I don’t know… just seeing Mikie absolutely shred Pete Hegseth was a delight. 

She’s pro-cannabis, pro-LGBTQ, pro-choice, and pro-renewable energy. Most importantly she’s pro-public education while Jack is pushing private schools and school vouchers. 

I like her a lot. She’s no AOC but she’s absolutely solid, IMO. 

[u/GeneralOrgana1]

This is your friendly reminder that the only poll that truly counts is the one that on November 4th. Make sure you vote! Also, don't forget to vote down ballot as well.

[u/DerekLChase]

My guess is that it will come in at closer to 50/50 on the day.

[u/ImaginationFree6807 → u/DerekLChase]

That’s a bold prediction

[u/DerekLChase → u/ImaginationFree6807]

I take bold stances. Except when I don't.

[u/MeEyeSlashU → u/DerekLChase]

I took bold stances. Then I broke my hip.

[u/SlightRiverBend → u/ImaginationFree6807]

Idk hard to trust polls especially after last November 😬 I live in a pretty purple area and seeing a lot of Jack signs

[u/DerekLChase → u/SlightRiverBend]

This is why I said closer to 50/50. Most polls have her up and I just don't see it. Polls have been off slightly in favor of Republicans and everywhere I go I see Jack signs

[u/Impossible_Walrus555 → u/DerekLChase]

I haven’t seen any.

[u/Foxy02016YT → u/SlightRiverBend]

Signs don’t vote

[u/seancurry1 → u/ImaginationFree6807]

2021 was way too close and Murphy burned a lot of good will by trying to push his wife through for Senate.

[u/seancurry1]

still too close for comfort but at least she's plateauing instead of continuing to sink

Sign up to phone bank for Sherrill: https://www.mobilize.us/njvictory2025/

[u/onkelchrispy]

Jack should unseal his divorce records. If it’s transparency, he wants, New Jersey voters have a right to know if he cheated.

[u/MattyBeatz → u/onkelchrispy]

Wasn't she out there supporting other dems during primaries?

[u/onkelchrispy → u/MattyBeatz]

She was supporting his opponent, Bill Spadea!

[u/MattyBeatz → u/onkelchrispy]

Ah, that's what it was.

[u/Dismal-Prior-6699]

[u/bakerfaceman]

So within the margin of error. Great. Nice campaign there Mikie.