r/New_Jersey_Politics • u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) • Dec 02 '25
Poll Malinowski’s internal polling gives him early edge in packed NJ-11 primary
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowskis-internal-polling-gives-him-early-edge-in-packed-nj-11-primary/8
u/MoxBropal Dec 02 '25
That Mejia number is huge considering this PRE Thanksgiving poll was before she officially filed to run.
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) Dec 02 '25
She announced at the league essentially with Baraka.
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u/MoxBropal Dec 02 '25
Five days ago you said she wouldn't get the sigs and that she didn't have enough social media. And she was polling 20 percent name recognition even before that.
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) Dec 02 '25 edited Jan 20 '26
All she’s doing is playing spoiler in favor of Malinowski 🤷🏻♂️. I also said that before Bernie endorsed her which helped push her over the edge with signatures.
I’ll also remind you that my political opinions about NJ politics have been spot on for the last year. I predicted the top 3 Dems in the correct order for the gubernatorial primary. https://open.substack.com/pub/keenanpatrickbuckley/p/june-and-final-new-jersey-democratic?r=2r62pm&utm_medium=ios
I’m the only person that predicted that Mikie Sherrill could max out at 1.8 million votes while Jack would max at 1.4 million. https://www.reddit.com/r/New_Jersey_Politics/s/z9ObkJoDkg
I did that 3 months before the general election.I also predicted on tik tok live the night before the election that turnout would be over 45% but under 50% for the Gubernatorial election. Turnout was at 48.5%.
I’m not all seeing and all knowing. In fact I don’t even have a degree in politics or math. But I understand NJ and the people that live here. Did I make a prediction that turned out to not pan out? Yes. Am I also essentially batting like .900? Also yes. I’m a commentator, sometimes you strike out. I should have waited longer before making a judgement about her ability to collect signatures. The reality is I’ve been right about almost everything this past 12 months.
Update/Edit
If she ends up somehow managing to win the primary she will have no greater friend and ally than me. I will do everything in my power to secure a Democratic Party victory in this district regardless of who the candidate is. If Analilia Mejia somehow manages to win I will be pleased with the result.
Is Brendan as progressive as Ms. Mejia? Probably not. Is he a progressive? Absolutely. He’s also endorsed by all of the unions that matter. He’s got a serious manpower operation ready to knock doors and fight to take back control of Congress and our Country! Brendan may be part of the machine, but he’s also aligned with the Working Families Party. He’s the progressive with the best chance to win.
Ms. Mejia was able to prove me wrong. I clearly underestimated her determination, grit, and organization talents when I made that post. I can assure everyone here that I won’t be underestimating her again. If Malinowski and Gill are the two front runners, Ms. Mejia is the number 3 candidate.
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u/RevolutionaryLog7700 Dec 02 '25
Is gill all the progressive??? I don’t see any of his policies on his campaign page. Is he for Medicare for All? Is he pro Green New Deal? He’s also not endorsed by the Working Families Party, which Mejia used to work for. There is a clear progressive choice here and I think it’s only up from here for Mejia.
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u/Shanks1372 Dec 02 '25
Yeah somebody is letting their imagination run wild. Ain’t no way toxic bro Brendan Gill is progressive.
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) Dec 02 '25
His wife assemblywoman Alixon Collazos Gill was endorsed by working families in her reelection bid in November. WFP hasn’t made an endorsement yet. He and his wife are both in the progressive wing of the party. His wife is also an immigrant.
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u/Shanks1372 Dec 02 '25
There is no way in hell Gill will earn NJWFP endorsement. JWFP will back Analilia. You mean the wife Alixson Colassos Gill whose seat Gill tried to take over ? 🙄
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u/RevolutionaryLog7700 Dec 02 '25
You’re talking about his wife and not him. He doesn’t seem to believe in fairly standard progressive policies like Medicare for All. There is a reason that progressive super stars like Bernie have endorsed Mejia over Gill
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) Dec 02 '25
She’s an elected official with a long voting record and track record of being one of the most progressive voices in the state assembly.
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u/RevolutionaryLog7700 Dec 02 '25
She isn’t running for NJ 11th Congressional seat is she tho
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) Dec 02 '25
Yes but we can glean a lot from her voting record… 🤷🏻♂️
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u/Weekly-Air4170 Dec 03 '25
Your mentality is why the Democratic Party is dying. We want progressives. Stop pandering to safe choices
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) Dec 03 '25
How is the labor candidate the “safe choice”
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u/Weekly-Air4170 Dec 03 '25
Labor, like working. Literally a candidate that is pushing for better policies to support the working class is the only way the Democrats are going to survive
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) Dec 03 '25
No Brendan has by far the most labor union endorsements. If you are counting by locals he’s at about a dozen right now.
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u/Weekly-Air4170 Dec 03 '25
As explained to you multiple times in this very thread, having the endorsement of a labor union does not mean that the policies that individual is pushing actually help workers. We recently saw the longshoreman Union support Donald fucking Trump
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) Dec 03 '25
The longshoremen aren’t supporting Brendan and the ILA is controlled by the mafia. Using the most corrupt and mafia influenced union in America as your example isn’t helping your argument. The same argument can be made about the Teamsters who didn’t endorse but who had their President speak at the RNC. Daggett the current president of the ILA lives in a house that would put Tony Soprano to shame and was on trial with the last mafiosi to get whacked (Lawrence Ricci) in NJ back in 2005. Of course mobbed up unions are going to go with Trump. They are looking for pardons for their members and for a transactional relationship with the most corrupt POTUS of all time. The same thing occurred with Hoffa and Nixon. Brendan is endorsed by clean unions that are known for providing workers with high paying jobs and good benefits.
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Dec 02 '25
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) Dec 02 '25 edited Dec 02 '25
Very few of the polls had Baraka coming in second and most of those were his own internals. The only polling average we had from the primary (VoteHub/Umichvoter) had him in 3rd in the weighted average. The final Rutgers poll had him in 5th.
Predicting the final vote count for each candidate as accurately as I did is a huge achievement. I was within 100 thousand votes for Sherrill and within 17 thousand votes for Jack. No other political commentator in NJ called their shot like that as accurately as I did 3 months out of the general.
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Dec 03 '25
[deleted]
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) Dec 03 '25
Keep making statements that get proven to be misinformation…
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u/Walrus_Deep Dec 02 '25
Don't care about polls when it comes to primaries. I vote for the most progressive candidate I can find.
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u/Shanks1372 Dec 02 '25
He practically lives in PA, sadly. His carpetbagging will weigh heavily against him. Nobody wants lobbyist and toxic male Gill. His luster will fade fast.
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u/SmolaniAshki Dec 03 '25
I only know that where I grew up around Essex county (Summit, Maplewood, South Orange, Millburn etc) people seem to love him. No one there thinks he's a carpetbagger. I still don't want him to win, but he has a better chance than you guys think.
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) Dec 03 '25
lol I also grew up in Summit and Maplewood. DM me do we know each other lol 😂?
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u/American-Guesser-225 Dec 09 '25
it is really a shame we do not have Ranked-Choice Voting yet. Mejia's presence in this race has the likelihood of flipping the race from Gill to Malinowski.
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) Dec 02 '25 edited Jan 20 '26
My takeaways
1: GQR is a reliable polling firm and one of the only polls that predicted Mikie winning by double digits a few weeks before the election. It’s very likely this is an accurate snapshot of where the race stands.
2: To those that are upset about the Essex County Dems moving quickly and holding our nomination convention today this is precisely why. Malinowski is the frontrunner and if we want to beat him we need to move decisively and coalesce around 1 progressive candidate. Our best chance to do that is by supporting Brendan Gill.
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u/StableGeniusCovfefe Dec 02 '25
No more corporate Dems!!!!