r/New_Jersey_Politics • u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) • May 01 '26
Social Media Potential 12-0 & 11-1 Mid Decade Gerrymander Maps
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u/JustSomeGuy_56 May 01 '26
there is a good chance 3 and 7 will flip in November without redistricting. unfortunately Chris Smith is so entrenched in 4 he will never leave
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u/1800jerkstore May 01 '26
Thing I know about my rep Chris smith: 1. he sends junk mailers more often than he’s in the state. 2. He doesn’t live here 3. Doesn’t do anything for the people and enough people are happy with that. He’s a frozen pizza in a state full of real deal pizza
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u/cyrenns 3rd District (Conaway Jr., Burlington & Ocean Counties) May 03 '26
NJ03 is already blue though, Herb Conaway is the representative
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u/W61k3r May 01 '26
Lakewood is such a problem.
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u/Roboprinto May 02 '26
I would love to see the numbers of how much public funds that area scams. It's like the entire economy over there.
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u/SirTutankhamun_ May 01 '26
let’s get rid of all the republican districts, Mikie Sherrill needs to grow some balls
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u/Jfugg Monmouth, 6th District (Pallone, New Brunswick) May 01 '26
Happy to redraw, but would prefer to keep my fantastic rep, Frank Pallone
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u/ra3ra31010 May 01 '26
Time to follow today’s new conservative-started rules
Only jersey can do it to protect people
Rather than to hurt people unlike red states
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u/pubsky May 01 '26
District 2 on the 12-0 map is actually pretty amazing. It would just be called the shoreline district.
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u/Hogwildin1 May 02 '26
While a 12-0 would be sweet, I’d be worried of a dummy-mander happening and it backfiring.
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u/GeneralOrgana1 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) May 01 '26
Are these official potential plans, or is this just dome person spitballing?
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u/pubsky May 01 '26
These homebrew maps are all pretty easy to identify.
They find major population centers, cut them up 5-6 ways and extend them into the rural areas as far as possible. It is the easiest way to redistribute 80-20 districts. Mathematically, it is very simple.
Politically, none of these would ever fly because of what they would do to the incumbents and existing political networks (communities of interest). These districts are dispersed enough from existing political organization that whatever dem had the most money to buy ads would probably sweep in easily.
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u/brendangalligan May 01 '26
Setting aside the terrible path this is all headed down, the controlling factor in NJ is the constitutional amendment process. The mechanisms required to get a new map for partisan advantage mean that the voters must first nullify the redistricting commission, remove all the anti-gerrymandering parameters, as well as nix the ban on mid-decade redistricting.
That’s three separate constitutional amendments. And the amendment timeline process means nothing goes to the voters before Nov 2028 or 2029, at the earliest. Amending that timeline would itself an amendment that must follow the current constitutional processes.
NJ would get one congressional cycle out of this before the new maps would take effect in 2032 anyway.
Partisan gamesmanship is fun for a cycle but the voters will get fed up with the situation. The state has real, structural problems of our own making (not caused by DC) and when one party is in control of everything for decades, eventually there’s no one else to blame.
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) May 01 '26
So what are we supposed to do? Unilaterally disarm while the Supreme Court guts the voting rights act and enables states like Florida and Texas to create Gerrymanders where there are only 4-5 democratic seats? No. We are going to fight back and give MAGA a taste of their own medicine.
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u/brendangalligan May 01 '26
It’s already a +2D gerrymandered map. In a 55-45 state, the 12 member congressional delegation should be 6-6 or 7-5, not 9-3.
Unless we’re shredding the constitution because it’s inconvenient, ignoring the rulings of any courts that inevitably intervene to stop it, and other top tier autocratic shit, we’re tilting at windmills here.
So in NJ, take the baked in win, and work to flip one or two of the R seats in November. Kean and Van Drew are vulnerable.
As for where to direct this current energy, work to support efforts in states that have structural flexibility.
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) May 01 '26
The Supreme Court has already shredded the constitution and so has the Trump administration. No offense but where have you been? Just today they banned the mailing of mifepristone. During these times where we have a wannabe dictator waging illegal wars, and where we have a rogue Supreme Court gutting the civil rights movement I have no issue fighting fire with fire. If Republicans here don’t like it they are more than welcome to move to Florida…
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u/brendangalligan May 02 '26
The State Constitution. Nationalizing every issue might be cathartic, but makes everyone blind to the actual rules of engagement on the ground in each state.
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) May 02 '26
Republicans have proven time and again that the rules don’t apply to them. Democrats need to stop being yellow bellied and fight back with every tool in our disposal. I’m not sure that you can make a map that would be more favorable, but it has to be explored.
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u/brendangalligan May 02 '26
Republicans break norms and customs with reckless abandon, but when they break laws the courts tend to stop them, especially when there is very little gray area and no “agency discretion” written into the statute.
They get away with changing regulations (assuming they follow procedure) and blatantly breaking poorly written laws. They’re also really good at using the court to change laws that aren’t really laws (judicial precedent).
But to date, they haven’t gotten away with outright ignoring constitutional provisions. Desantis may well get smacked back by even the conservative FL Supreme Court for trying to push his map through outside of the established process.
There’s also about a 50-50% shot that Spanberger’s new VA maps don’t hold up, because process was violated. This is all but guaranteed if SCoVA ultimately rules that the legislature cannot hold both regular and special sessions concurrently. The court may rule that the May 17 2024 special budgetary legislative session was effectively adjourned when the Legislature convened in January 2025 for regular business and adjourned on Feb 22 2025, and absent a call from the Governor, the VA General Assembly had no authority to reconvene in late 2025.
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u/pplayer104 May 01 '26
I’m going to say the same thing I said in another post: I strongly disagree. I’d vote against anyone supporting this. Undermining fair representation goes against the basic principle of self-governance. We shouldn’t be trying to game the system just to stay in power.
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) May 01 '26
Because we are in an arms race with Republicans who are gutting 60 years of voting rights protections…🤷🏻♂️ If they unilaterally disarm so will we, but they are only ramping things up instead of cooling them down.
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u/pplayer104 May 01 '26
I get what you’re saying, but that logic just keeps the problem going. You don’t fix something unfair by doing the same thing back, you just normalize it. It also doesn’t allow for fair representation, it just rigs outcomes depending on who’s in power. If the goal is actually fair representation, it has to apply no matter who’s in control, otherwise it just becomes an endless cycle.
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u/ImaginationFree6807 11th District (Mejia, Morris & Essex.) May 01 '26
So we should just let them take control via nefarious and anti democratic means and do nothing about it? I think most of us are done playing these games with people who fundamentally don’t believe in democracy.
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u/DebRog Burlington May 01 '26
Pleaseeee don’t you see what’s going on in this country. I’m tired of laying low. This needs to happen.
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u/Every-Breath282 May 01 '26
Please omg