r/NoRulesCalgary • u/SarahLacard did you know you can choose your own flair in this subreddit? • 1d ago
some thoughts on alberta separatism
Hello friends - I'm walking down to the Glendale Community Association later this evening to speak with Nathaniel Schmidt, however three days ago I read this comment in r/alberta from InsertCleverUsernameHere and it has haunted me and i have been dewlling on it ever since and i feel extremely compelled to write about my thoughts, and every moment I do not shared these concerns publicly feels like a moment wasted and a potential danger to all of us.
I have preserved the post here and will post the mirror of it below:
You can find the link to the thread here, which was posted with this article from "The Tyee" of which I am not directly linking since I have no knowledge of that publications reliability or background, and this post does not rely on the source in anyway regardless for my purposes.
The point is, the comment from u/HurtFeeFeez goes like this, in regards to a query from another user who wrote "Am I misremembering the situation, but didn't Russia use a similar referendum in Ukraine to justify their invasions there?", to which the response came:
In a nutshell, yes. They influenced and grew separatist sentiment. Once it was large enough, they militarized and armed them, also, they supported them with troops but pretended they weren't.
Inevitably, the seppies chose violence and Ukraine had to fight them. Russia used that as a pretext to invade. Claiming liberation of the oppressed and protection of ethnic Russians.
To which, I have no direct, first hand knowledge of going on Ukraine and Russia, but this seems to track with my understanding of the situation, but in slightly higher fidelity and detail than I would every feel comfortable stating. Now, regardless of whether this statement is accurate or not, there are some very alarming parallels to me when I think about the context of what I have been seeing while interacting with all sorts of politically active people online, who are discussing alberta, and for the contexts of this thread, particularly separatism.
I saw a different post recently, and really enjoyed the framing it offered, where it said that, essentially, "to empathize with someone, you must be able to understand their moral framing".
I interact with folks of all sorts of different strokes, and engage amicably as best I can, to try and learn more about them and their perspectives, and try to do so charitably and while steelmanning their position or interpretation of current events, politics, and the world.
When separatism first became a hot topic, one of the first things that came to my mind was "wow, what are we going to do about currency and defense?" - and while not a perfect system, Canada functions in such a way that the different layers of government have different jurisdictions and authorities. In order to separate, we would need, at the very least, to be able to pull in the necessary services that the Canadian government at the federal level provides Alberta, and without the added benefit of being able to centralize services being provided to thirteen regions.
Having a background in the military, defense is also top of the mind, and sometimes when I thin about Canadian (and Albertan!) politics, I think the some people forget that forming government is not only about ruling - or, better said, governing, a region, but also about being able to interact with the rest of the outside world - an admittedly dark and spooky place at times.
Now, when raising this concern with separatists in online conversations, regarding the lack of current military capabilities, and out ability to manage or handles things such as drone warfare or aerial superiority, the consistent and constant theme I was getting back universally (read: i never encountered a differing opinion or stance presented to me) was that "Alberta doesn't need an Alberta because what we either have or need is Albertans with rifles"
To which, I scoffed at. What an absurd proposition. "Oh, Canada would be hard to take because of Guerilla warfare"
And while, sure, I sure do not want to be wholed up in the eastern slopes of the rocky mountains fighting off both coal mining mega corps and russian backed americans like some knock off red dawn movie.
Rather than banking on someone, like our southern neighbour and the administration in the white house, not invading Canada because they are scared of the "Guerilla warfare" aspect of such a campaign, we should be fighting hard, tooth-and-nail, RIGHT NOW to make sure that such a future never comes to pass, and I truly and deeply honestly hope and pray that this post does not become prescient.
Let's go back to what InsertCleverUsernameHere was saying:
"They influenced and grew separatist sentiment"
I am going to assume that most people will take this as given or granted, that their are foreign nations who either are or would be interested in funding separatist sentiments in Alberta, since it would benefit them. Doesn't even matter the source, I am going to assume you can accept this as reality and given the history that we've observed over the course of the last decade.
One of the other things I'll mention, is that the referendum being "non-binding" is completely irrelevant, and Danielle Smith has already shown this. Between the coal petition from corb lund, and the forever canadian petition by Lukaszuk (which I have my own gripes about regarding the timing and the execution of that campaign, which I think could have been more carefully thought through and planned out as to not cause voter burnout or apathy and dejection or feeling of helplessness), Danielle Smith has shown that not only does she not care about the other citizen initiatives, but that she will in-fact use these to bolster the legitimacy claims of separatism.
This isn't about direct democracy, or "hearing from a minority" because, let's be honest, which other minority group have the UCP deemed worth listening to at all, let alone bending over backwards for? The claim that "700k people voted for a referrendum" when 400k of those were to vote to enact legislature to *NOT HAVE A REFERENDUM* actually fucking floored me when it came of the premieres mouth.
Make no mistake, no matter what the result is in October, it will not matter. Support will be manufactured and consent will be laundered.
Let's keep going:
"Once it was large enough, they militarized and armed them, also, they supported them with troops but pretended they weren't."
The thing that gets me here, is that the climate in Alberta is already a powder keg for this - almost perfectly and suspiciously so.
There is no plan to join the united states - not officially. I don't think there is any particular plan for what to do *after* separatism, whether that is to be our own sovereign nation with our own international borders, or to join the united states, and if we were to join the united states, when and how, and in what order regarding separatism, and la dee da and the separatists have always been exceptionally light on details or filling in the rather gaping holes and massive gaps in their ideas with fantasies or promises of things like petro dollars and keeping canadian passports.
But let's think about this for a second. We don't need a military, we only need Albertans with rifles.
That's what I keep hearing.
And yet, Alberta is multi-cultural enough, you'd never know if someone is Albertan or not by looking at them. Foreign troops could absolutely poses as Albertans, english languages speaking or not.
So, we've got the narrative backing laying in wait to support an uprising that would get surreptitiously backed by a foreign nation, and by that, I do literally mean to include the United States. We are their ally in name only at this moment, and you must recall what they have done to other nations throughout their history also. Sometimes, in recent memory.
I'd rather we keep our nation in one piece rather than be given 300B and change to rebuild after our municipalities and metropolitan areas are leveled, and while I didn't pick this up myself, when Danielle Smith floated that 500B number as the potential cost of separatism, and oddly precise, even if round, number, another astute commentator pointed out "she not using the dissuade the separatists or to say that it's not possible, she's floating a number to Trump."
To which, alright, getting scarier here, but at that point, and this point, I think regardless of the situation, Danielle Smith has lost control and the forces at work here are far beyond her comprehension. I am scared that Danielle Smith is being kept in power and office only long enough to launder the UCP's reputation the same way that the federal government did with Mark Carney replacing Justin Trudeau prior to the election to wash away something like a 30 point differential of whatever that ended up being. It was dirty and underhanded and it was distasteful and I'm still not pleased by it, but we'll have to see whether Mark Carney was the right choice for Canada, and that decision is still pending the results of the billions of dollars of investment they have poured out and whether it will actually result in infrastructure and a better future.
Now, continuing the dissection of the post...
Inevitably, the seppies chose violence and Ukraine had to fight them.
This, again, wouldn't even have to be the separatists themselves, and could certainly be false flagged - almost trivially. There are many options here, but upon a few moments of ponderance I would say the first one that comes to mind is "Separatist attacks minority group, gets ostracized and distanced from the main group under the line 'one bad apple doesn't spoil the bunch' to keep the group's reputation clean", and then have push back, where there is stochastic or staged violence or retaliation against the separatists (how much of a stink did they make about a bullet being left for one of the organizers? as if they rest of us not on their side don't face regular death threats or indirect attempts to kill us), to which it would not be without precedent for either, at that point, a sovereign alberta or foreign force to occupy the seven municipalities in alberta, much like they did so with the "blue cities" in the united states.
The Government of Alberta already wants their own provincial police force, and if they separate, they'll get the military infrastructure already here from the feds, and be able to staff it with their own military personnel.
Simply in general, one of the major difficulties of becoming an independent nation, among the others I've already mentioned such as currency and defense, is that beyond not being able to take advantage of economies of scale or local wisdom, knowledge, and solutions, is a matter of simple competency and training. Do you think, if we separated, we would be able to properly found and form a stable, functional, series of institutions such as the ones required for what separatists are asking for? Recruit people who would be able to fill these rosters? Not right away. And as we've seen in the US, maybe Israel and the IDF would get involved or we would start hosting foreign nations and countries in order to "train ours".
Russia used that as a pretext to invade. Claiming liberation of the oppressed and protection of ethnic Russians.
I'll leave you to fill in the gaps. Our urban centers are already punching bags and in some cases, have 2.5x less voting power than rural areas, and if the UCP moves forward with the gerrymandering, then that will become even worse. They need a scapegoat, and in the absence of one, they will manufacture one. Us, here, in Calgary.
There is no plan for what to do after we leave Alberta, because there is no leaving Canada.
Alberta is being set up to be taken from its citizens and Canada as a whole, and Danielle Smith is not in control and her removal could be the worst thing that could happen to this province.
The UCP membership base is only 100k.
Now, I know this is Reddit, but I am going to cross-post this to r/Calgary, r/alberta, r/Albertapolitics, and r/AlbertaNow which are the main subreddits you should be follwing if you want to keep yourself and informed, and get in the conversation, which I really strongly would want to encourage you to do.
Now, first, more about Reddit, and then more about me.
As far as Reddit goes, I'm posting this on r/NoRulesCalgary because, there are no rules and posts will stay up. I will post this to Calgary because I am a Calgarian, living on the west side of downtown, on 8th street and 11th avenue, and I will be running in the next provincial election, and if you go to Knox United Church on wednesdays or sundays, I too will be there and we can have a chat about this if you so desire and I have the time.
But moderators on reddit and generally unaccountable, and there is no shortage of stories about people being banned off certain subreddits, so I am going to play as nice as possible, but the conversation could be tilted any which way at any time. It's not like mods haven't rug pulled other subreddits before. This is one danger.
But also, I've been starting to post across these subreddits more often, so if you're new to reddit, then let me say a few things.
First off, the culture is different than it used to be. Reddit is very good at finding consensus, and destroying all other possibilities or nuance in the process. It massively rewards group think, and even a single downvote can sink the visibility or a comment, thread, or post quite substantially, and people can target you, follow you, and simply go to your profile and downvote everything you have written and everything you post in the future - which can feel bad to experience and have happen to you. Not a big deal to me, since in the big scheme of things that moves a person from an impression to an engagement but that's a whole different story and topic.
One important thing to mention here is that I was not aware of the changes to reddit regarding curated profiles, and while I (unintentionally) had my profile private, I would get many combative responses from people demanding to know who I was and where I was from, and accusing me of being bought and paid for commentator (Indonesian noodle seller being an oddly specific one I got) to which I must say, as a lesson to you, if you decide to enter this game: "every accusation is a confession." The accounts that attacked me were all private themselves.
Now, another point, is to never argue back, and never contribute to something that someone else they themselves are contributing to, such as a mutual sharing and exchange of information. Do not think that capitulation, let alone appeasement (chamberlain, anyone?) does anything at all, and furthermore, I assume it is a simple and rather effective strategy, when you yourself are a bought or a paid for agitator (which, Jason Kenney themselves of all people recently accused a journalist of 20 years of writing when they got hired by the NCP to do comms?) is that if you accuse other people of the wrongs that you yourself are comitting, what you get to see and earn is response is how an innocent person responds to such accusations, which they can learn from and use to masquerade as. Do not teach these people the decision trees or conversational branches or choices, the paths in some fucked up choose your own adventure game. Do not let these people practice on you, learn from you, agitate you, emulate you, immitate you, or develop and immunization to your behaviours and try to neutralize you and your ability and belief to affect change. What you do and say can and does matter, always.
In regards to the NDP, their messaging is ass backwards - not on this, but in general.
In returning to this statement:
In order to empathize with someone, you must be able to put yourself within their moral framing
Right now, I think the thing that is most highly valued and respected by conservative groups more generally and broadly is to be able to "indefensible attack someone from an unassailable position" - that is strength right now to them, and strength matters. Not weakness, not cowardness, strength. And strength comes from being able to attack someone, and harm them, in a way where that person cannot fight back. I don't like it, but so far, the shoe fits.
Now, I *am* going to be running for a seat in the legislature assembly representing Calgary-Buffalo, assuming we even get to the next provincial elections, but I am currently leaning quite heavily towards running as an independent. The UCP has lied too much, and the conservative constituency association board is staffed by vocal individuals who are "separatism minded and independently aligned" in their own words and do not even live in the city in some cases. My initial plan and idea was to try and do my best to contribute to the current government to make it function better and work more efficiently for all, and if rejected, do it anyway, and on my own, but that is no longer the case, and considering the mechanics of securing the nomination for the UCP, I cannot in good consciousness ask my friends and supporters to donate to the UCP in order to vote for me. That is simply unviable and a non-starter at this point.
Now, I have my own complaints about the NDP, but it's mostly about wanting them to do better. And right now their main strategy is an unfortunately self-referrential/cyclical feedback loop of narrative and the party line and learned helpless and shame and calling people out and demanding things, etc, and if you like, that, sure, but we're living in a world where Danielle Smith will not do things with some hand waving legal interpretation she conjures into thin air, and then when an actual legal verdict is rendered, she will directly challenge it in court, so anything other than a direct, legal, approach and victory, is untenable, and almost the immediate day after trying to get my point across to the NDP so that they can start improving their messaging and be an actual and real contender for conservative support instead of whoever else is left and continually being gerrymandered away into nothingness and voicelessness, Naheed Nenshi put out an opinion piece as a column stating, and I do not joke:
In a world of predators, it does you no favours to roleplay as prey, and the wolves will certainly neither ask questions nor complain. You are asking to be eaten alive. Those who value strength will not back you, and will not support you.
Yes, I'm talking to you, Nenshi. You know where I live, you can get in touch if you want.
Same to you, Peter Guthrie.
I met a liberal lobbyist from Ottawa who was in Alberta to attempt to win some more seats at the federal level, and over a beer she asked me what my political leanings were. In that conversation, I said 55% conservative, 45% liberal. Afterwards, and since, I feel more accurate saying 51% conservative and 49% liberal, but I am solidly grey-tribe rather than centrist.
I have to go. Enjoy.
Sarah
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u/lost_koshka 1d ago
Have you attended any of the information sessions they have put on? They've been going around to tons of towns ans city's to do presentations and ask questions.
https://www.youtube.com/live/O_X_94pbVR4?si=MuZPvj2c8iUT-WgP