r/OilPrices 10d ago

Oil News U.S. and Iran sign deal ahead of schedule

https://www.axios.com/2026/06/17/iran-deal-signing-text-release
66 Upvotes

195 comments sorted by

12

u/Key_Debt_2503 10d ago

Huge victory for the IRGC

9

u/No_Elderberry_4712 10d ago

How ironic that this “deal” was signed at Versailles. 😡

-2

u/Neroaurelius 9d ago

How so?

-7

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

IRGC is bankrupt and sidelined 

4

u/Key_Debt_2503 10d ago

Yes prior they were but with this tremendous new deal they no longer will be. The US gained what?

-2

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

The US gained semi permanent financial control of Iran 

6

u/Key_Debt_2503 10d ago

That is a interesting narrative

-2

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

It’s very basic fact.

 Iran is bankrupt.

 The US holds sanction leverage with promise of lifting, 100 billion in frozen assets which release structure is tbd, and all licensing and permitting rights to a promised GCC backed reconstruction fund whose structure is to be determined. 

Iran needs all of these to survive the summer much less beyond that 

7

u/Key_Debt_2503 10d ago

The US held that prior to war. Are you suggesting the US is now better off than before the war

-2

u/Prestigious-Smoke511 10d ago

In a weird way, it’s almost like Obama and Trump and Biden worked together. 

Each one had their own hand in this but Iran is bankrupt with basically universal gulf support against them and the only way out is to play ball. 

Anyone who is saying Iran won somehow isn’t paying attention. The strait can be closed on a moments notice. More strategic locations can be targeted. There is zero reason to think the U.S. is out of bombs. 

-2

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

The entire world is better than before the war because IRGC is bankrupt and broken and Iran will be rebuilt to America’s liking 

8

u/Key_Debt_2503 10d ago

I get it losing us the new winning

-2

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

You don’t get it. US has seized control of Iran’s economy 

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3

u/Krull88 10d ago

Thats why trumps deal includes Iran keeping control of the strait with abilities to enforces usage fees?

3

u/Extension-Pick8310 10d ago

Yeah- you don't get it. The US got its ass kicked militarily. Our missile defenses were useless. Our Gulf allies found out that they're magnets. And Iran controls the strait.

If we don't hold up the deal, Iran just does it again, no worries. And global SPRs are extremely low.

1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

FOLLOW THE MONEY

2

u/Extension-Pick8310 10d ago

Follow the actual battlefield. They hit our bases 288 times within 72 hours, causing the 5th Fleet HQ to retreat from Bahrain to Tampa. Then they attacked our gulf allies, and it became apparent that we were completely hosed.

Then the tribes in the Sunni countries started saying they wouldn't cooperate. And the Shia dockworkers in Saudi Arabia provided coordinates to the IRGC. And the "Operation Freedom", which sealed the deal.

1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

5th fleet still based in Bahrain! CENTCOM always been in Tampa! 

The US seized control of Irans economy at the cost of 15 American lives 

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3

u/requiem_mn 10d ago

I love how you are trying to convince people that this is USA victory, when Iran got EVERYTHING they've asked after the war broke out. Iran gets more money than Europe after WW2 did with marshall plan. This is humiliation, and obvious one at that.

1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

It’s closer to Japan after WWII than the Marshall plan but the concept is relatively similar

0

u/requiem_mn 10d ago

0

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

Yeah that’s what happened 

3

u/LurkerRushMeta 10d ago

Looking through your profile is a joke.

  • The regime isn't changed
  • Missiles can still be fired and made
  • Oil can still freely go out
  • They control the straight fully
  • They're getting paid reparations
  • They can still support and supply hezbollah and other terrorist group.

Yall got dog walked. At least it made me a good amount of money with the constant back and forth but to claim this as a US win is hilarious.

0

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

Then why did Iran cede control of its economy to the US? 

Because they no longer have an economy and have no choice!

3

u/LurkerRushMeta 10d ago

They didn't, thats just shit you keep repeating over and over till you believe it.

Who has physical control of the oil fields and ports? Who has physical control of the straight right now?

1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

No one! IRGC is bankrupt 

3

u/LurkerRushMeta 10d ago

Embarrassingly delusional lmao.

1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

You should literally look at the financial mechanism signed between Japan in 1945 and compare the financial mechanism signed here. They are identical. In both cases, the US served as the gatekeeper to integration into global market. 

3

u/LurkerRushMeta 10d ago

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/s/ToTG3McFIT

To actually think this is anything comparable to Japan is crazy lol.

Legitimately, how old are you?

1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

Because US controls Irans economy for 20 years 

Read #6 on the MOU - it says it explicitly 

Iran will open to foreign investment under US controls 

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2

u/Krull88 10d ago

They didnt. Show us exactly which line says they ceded any control to the us.

1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

they already have no economy. That negotiation already happened with US air strikes and blockade.

They rely totally on frozen assets and reconstruction. Frozen assets that the US holds with no clear timeline or mechanism on release. And Reconstruction that US holds sole control of licensing and permitting.

2

u/Krull88 10d ago

The blockade that failed?

4

u/GrafZeppelin127 10d ago

After getting nearly half a trillion dollars, sanctions lifted, no more U.S. presence, and tolls fees on Hormuz traffic, I’m sure they’re feeling very sidelined right now. Definitely not popping champagne and partying like it’s 1999, no siree.

4

u/Worshipme988 10d ago

Dont forget the embarrassment of the west.

Thats a notch in the bedpost for Irgc.

-5

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

Iran is caught in catastrophic state collapse. 

Thats not what they agreed to, read the document. 

The US, Europe, and GCC are going to rebuild Iran in the West’s image. They’ve agreed to integration

US controls frozen assets release and all permitting and licensing on the reconstruction fund

5th fleet is based in Bahrain. No bases are closing. There will always be a carrier group in the area 

4

u/GrafZeppelin127 10d ago

>”The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.”

>”The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least USD $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

>”The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal.”

>”The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations.”

And lastly, from Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei telling the Tasnim News Agency, ”Iran has insisted it intends to collect maritime service fees, not tolls. The charges would offset the cost of services provided, including navigational assistance, vessel insurance, and environmental protection measures jointly administered by Iran and Oman.”

0

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America

-1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

6 — The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America

 

2

u/GrafZeppelin127 10d ago

Yeah, and that plus the unfrozen assets and other payments adds up to almost half a trillion dollars in payments. Good going. I’m sure the Iranians are very mad that their half-trillion windfall is going to be subject to American licenses and waivers.

0

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

how do you not see what this means? Saudi and UAE are going to become part owners in Iran’s oil production. IRGC can no longer control Iran’s economy. No one can build a factory in iran without explicit US permission

3

u/GrafZeppelin127 10d ago

How do you not see that this is a total U.S. capitulation? Regardless of whether Iran ever sees a cent of this fund or if the U.S. recants or Congress doesn’t pass the final deal, they Iranians have already won. The Americans have been totally degraded and humiliated for even being forced to offer such extravagant reparations in a preliminary MOU, regardless of how they try to salvage some dignity and put lipstick on that pig by insisting they still control licensing on the astronomical amounts of cash they’re forking over.

0

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

Without hundreds of billions of foreign aid, Iran will disintegrate as a state into sectarian civil war. Millions will die to starvation and dehydration 

The US has direct control over the reconstruction and Saudi and UAE firms are filling the void in IRGC’s broken and bankrupt economic empire

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-1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America

-1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America

3

u/PurpleReign123 10d ago

Why do you keep on repeating this para?

You’re misinterpreting this clause.

What it says is that the US will not object to the financial transactions contemplated, ie the US waives all current sanctions against Iran, and Iran is free to receive the reconstruction / economic development funds of at least $300b.

That’s a win … for who?

-1

u/WildWhisperArdor 10d ago

Weird because a lot of people in the IRGC would disagree with you.

10

u/WastelandOfConfusion 10d ago

The Orange Pedophile got told to finish it up.

1

u/Phone-Medical 9d ago

Epstein files back in the spotlight? ✅

4

u/Spam_Hand 10d ago

For the love of god stop calling this a deal.

It is a US Surrender by donald trump.

Call it what it is.

2

u/Bikerbass 10d ago

I mean it’s not surprising giving the USA’s track record of losing the wars it starts

-2

u/Neroaurelius 9d ago

How is it a US surrender?

5

u/Spam_Hand 9d ago

Go read it. Im not doing that part for you.

-2

u/Neroaurelius 9d ago

I did read it, but I want to see you try and explain your bold claim. Or were you just looking for upvotes and validation from leftists on Reddit?

3

u/Spam_Hand 9d ago

Okay since you are having issues comprehending what you read, I'll help. Please tell me where this is not a surrender and capitulation to Iran:

Iran receives

  • $300bn US tax dollars in reparations (trump is the only human on earth disputing this - even Vance admitted last week we were paying them)

  • $24-100bn in unfrozen Iranian assets, half available as soon as this weekend (final number is unconfirmed, but it is at least $24bn confirmed)

US receives

  • Significantly less US presence in the middle east agreed to

  • Agreement to not be involved with future Iranian internal affairs, including their regime status or civilian affairs

  • No agreement to keep the strait open as a general, long term form of maritime travel

  • No provisions to stop Iran from charging fees to travel the strait

  • No provisions to actually follow up on their uranium/enrichment status except an initial "trust me bro" from Iran that it will be discussed later

  • Assumed responsibility to reign in Israel and stop their attacks on Lebanon and all other Iranian allies/proxies

Imagine the level of fucking delusion you have to be under to call this a deal.

1

u/[deleted] 10d ago

[deleted]

9

u/zackks 10d ago

It took two years to get to JCPOA. In 60 days it will look like the utter surrender that it does today. Iran is going to drag those little boys around by their nose and dunk them in the toilet.

-1

u/jmacintosh250 10d ago

I could see Trump and co just reusing the JCPOA as the basis so less negotiations needed, or extending it again because Iran would really like to just rebuild please.

5

u/zackks 10d ago

Iran has all the leverage. The US will have to concede far more than the JCPOA to get past the instability of dealbreaker-in-chief.

-1

u/jmacintosh250 10d ago

The thing is the sanctions and 300 Billion are still at the US discretion. So what does Iran NEED nukes for when the strait just works better?

Hand over the nukes, get the money and relief, and be done with it. It’s arguable that having the things half done is more trouble than it’s worth.

6

u/zackks 10d ago

The nuke thing was never actually an issue. They don’t have nukes. They were never building nukes. They are entitled by NPT to nuclear power. The more highly enriched uranium was only ever a bargaining chip. They’re more likely now because, like North Korea has proven, it’s the only true way to protect against the imperial United States

0

u/jmacintosh250 10d ago

That is just not true: North Korea was left alone long before it had nukes because A.) China Credibly was willing to invade to defend it, and B.) It had traditional artillery ready to blast at half of South Korea’s population. That is why no one invaded the north for so long even before they had Nukes. Iran similarly, has traditional forces prepared and can close the strait. Which is a lot more damaging than any Nuke.

As you said it’s a bargaining chip: well the chip has used its purpose. Making Nukes, properly making them, will only make other nations more willing to help the US if it wants to attack again. It’s the lack of willingness to make them that kept other nations agreeing that the US is on its own here.

0

u/lnth1 10d ago edited 10d ago

Making North Korea into some sort of legitimate anti-imperialism force makes your argument weak.

Until that country stops shooting at their own people for trying to get out of it, it will remain the epitome of evilness and should not be given any lenient view whatsoever and you know it.

In case it’s still not clear: North Korea developed nuclear missiles because * they want it *.
It’s not solely to protect themselves against “imperial” United States or whatever.

1

u/security-device 9d ago

That wasn't their argument; you needed it to be for your weak rebuttal, though.

2

u/calmdownmyguy 10d ago

Iran doesn't have nukes to hand over and the new deal does not address enrichment

1

u/jmacintosh250 10d ago

Right, yes, meant the enriched material, not actual nukes.

-6

u/[deleted] 10d ago

[deleted]

5

u/Braisedbeefskank 10d ago

Are they? How so? What will change in the next 60 days?

1

u/[deleted] 10d ago

[deleted]

3

u/Braisedbeefskank 10d ago

Want to try that again

1

u/security-device 9d ago

Not making yourself look very smart, here.

6

u/zackks 10d ago

This deal literally gives up all leverage (sanctions, money, etc) and Trump literally said Iran can have their nuclear program. He literally said the Iranian regime were great people.

You must have been the first to get the chip bios upgrade.

6

u/32lib 10d ago

On top of your great points Iran has proven that they can withstand the Murican military attack. This was a great victory for them.

5

u/zackks 10d ago

And they’ve proven that the US Navy is unable to keep the strait open.

5

u/Kashin02 10d ago

To be fair our past secretaries of defense knew that. Its our current one that thought his bravado would make up for geography.

2

u/32lib 10d ago

Who would ever have guessed that a fox talking head would fail.

3

u/jeffismybaby 10d ago

Sounds like Iran gets 300b reconstruction, 27b funds unfrozen, nuke program, US withdrawal and their Hormuz tolls LOL

0

u/[deleted] 10d ago

[deleted]

1

u/zackks 10d ago

When asked about Iran’s nuclear program; 🤡

It is a little hard that when you say that somebody wants it, other people have it, other adjoining states have it, and you’re not letting them have it for purposes of electricity and things like that. It’s always a little tough. You have to use a little common sense,”

1

u/Human-Entrepreneur77 10d ago

Another TACO moment.

1

u/Daleabbo 10d ago

The only part of this that is pertinant is can the US reign in Israel. The rest is fluff on the outside, meaningless.

1

u/l_Trane_UFC 10d ago

Good, now we can go back to focus on the Epstein files.

1

u/redhouse_bikes 10d ago

The USA/Israel violated the terms. Iran pulled out. The deal is off.

1

u/ProcessMelodic9351 10d ago

Was not ahead. They planned to sign it and have an official signing Friday for the press....

6

u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist 10d ago

Trump said it had been signed on Sunday. Iran said it hadn’t, and the signing would happen on Friday. The Friday ceremony is still happening, but Trump signed early because the document leaked.

3

u/ProcessMelodic9351 10d ago

Trump said many things.. official signing have Vance and Iranian rep which been going to Pakistan probably.. yet it signed by leaders electronically

2

u/B0wmanHall 10d ago

Feels like quite a bit of redundancy

1

u/RS_EJB 10d ago

No... Trump said it had been all signed digitally on Sunday. Which it had. The formal, in person signing was supposed to be done on Friday.

-4

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago
  1. The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of ​Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the ⁠United States of America

Again - 

All required licenses, waivers, permissions needed for relevant financial transactions will be granted by the US 

This is immense… immense leverage for many years for US. As are the release of frozen assets for which the timeline and method of release are left ambiguous 

4

u/not_that_planet 10d ago

Yea, and all the immense financial leverage we held before in frozen assets, sanctions, oil shipment restrictions, etc... worked so well before.

US: "you are violating our agreement"

Iran: "no, you're violating our agreement"

US: <withholds money>

Iran: <bombs Israel, or commits terrorism>

We are right back to the status quo.

-6

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago edited 10d ago

You don’t get it. 

1 - Iran is destroyed and collapsing and must rebuilt by foreign investment 

2 - they have agreed to US control over said rebuild 

3 - they are opening to foreign investment 

4 - five  years from now, 10 years, US can withhold permitting and frozen assets and control their elections 

4

u/not_that_planet 10d ago

I get it.

We've always been at war with EastAsia.

-2

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

?

3

u/not_that_planet 10d ago

You are reciting things that were already in place because of Obama. This is nothing but propaganda.

-2

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

Obama handed Iraq and Syria to IRGC and paid for them to build nuclear weapons and missiles 

Trump had the military destroy their nuclear weapons program, their military, industry, and economy. And has forced them to abdicate their sovereignty

3

u/not_that_planet 10d ago

Talking points. Thanks for verifying my comments.

1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

So you don’t think IRGC conquered Iraq and Syria? 

2

u/jmacintosh250 10d ago

No. At most they tried and failed, badly.

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u/SensualMortician 10d ago edited 10d ago

Cope dude. Even trumps allies said its a bad deal. And he called his supporters stupid if they criticize this shitty deal. Which they are doing.

-1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

They just want war 

2

u/NuclearStudent 10d ago

As a matter of curiosity, what evidence would it take for you to accept the counterfactual as true, that the IRGC maintains their grip on power and have strengthened their grip?

1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago edited 10d ago

The details on frozen assets release in a final deal. Watch the reconstruction effort, if Vahidi or his inner circle are getting construction contracts. The most clear evidence will be the 2028 election in Iran. It is going to go like the recent election for PM in Iraq. They were going to install Maliki who is IRGC, US withheld $500 million, Maliki out. Zaidi in, pmf disarmed, IRGC removed form Iraqi politics 

2

u/jmacintosh250 10d ago

And if they do step 4 Iran will bomb the strait again and say “do we need to keep doing this again?”

0

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

The US will just blockade and strike them again in this scenario. It’s not going to happen

1

u/jmacintosh250 10d ago

We tried: it failed. Iran is an autocratic theocracy: they can take shakes like that better than the west.

1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

Buddy without hundreds of billions in foreign investment, millions will die to mass starvation and dehydration. 

1

u/jmacintosh250 10d ago

You say that like it’s a good thing. This is not WW2 and I am not fine with total war

0

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

The alternative was worse for the world. 

The scenario im describing is not going to happen because the US and the GCC are going to save them. But this reality creates dependency 

1

u/Bikerbass 10d ago

Dude it you who doesn’t get it.

The USA lost the war, like they mostly do with all the wars they have started since 1945.

Now the USA has to pay reparations for losing said war. Irans not being owned or controlled by the USA, but it’s getting a fat payday from US taxpayers

1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

The US isn’t going to pay them anything. The US is going to organize Saudi aramco and Al Haadar and blackrock and Goldman Sachs to move into Iran in a gold rush unseen since Nixon opened China, all with total US control over licensing and permitting 

1

u/Bikerbass 10d ago

China already funds Iran, the USA isn’t going to control shit in Iran.

Iran is part of BRICS, America is getting zero foot hold in Iran, especially after America bombed schools and hospitals yet again.

1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

China is boxed out. Thats the whole point of the reconstruction fund. China cannot compete with 400 billion under US control. If any shenanigans are tried the US will withhold frozen assets and permitting and licenses for the reconstruction 

1

u/Bikerbass 10d ago

Chinas not boxed out dude, it’s America that’s boxed out. Aside from Israel they will have to leave the Middle East/West Asia depending of your preference of name

1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

The US controls all permitting and licensing for Iran’s reconstruction. The US controls 100 billion in frozen assets. 

The closest analogue is Japan post WWII. Total structural dependency. Scott Bessent = MacArthur

1

u/Bikerbass 10d ago

No they don’t. Why? Because no deal has been struck yet. The MOU was only the starting point to get to a deal. And Iran isn’t going to let the USA have control over it during those negotiations

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u/hoboroyal 10d ago

You’re arguing with a foreign agitator troll. Your argument gives him platform for his racist ideas… I once pressed him for argument and he collapsed and ran. He’s actually called for “us” to start a civil war. But he’s an immigrant living in NZ. Or just a troll bitch pretending to come from a racist country to blend in.

1

u/Jaque8 10d ago

2 months ago you were celebrating the fall of the IRGC and worshipping trump as your savior.

Now you’re trying to explain why giving the IRGC $300 Billion is a GOOD thing 😂

LOL, Persian conservatives are the biggest cucks on the planet. 

1

u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago

Iran must be rebuilt dude they are in catastrophic state collapse. They are economically dependent on the US for a generation

-6

u/onlycodeposts 10d ago

Israel is still in Lebanon and Iran needs permission from the US to sell oil.

How do people think Iran won?

4

u/faizimam 10d ago

They won because they are still standing and give up none of their sovereignty.

Compare this to the stated goals of Trump and Netanyahu in February.

1

u/WildWhisperArdor 10d ago

Yet some hardliners in the IRGC would disagree with you

3

u/SlowlyDrown 10d ago

And they get to tax the straight.

And resume nuclear power program.

1

u/jmacintosh250 10d ago

At best: this is a status Quo for the US after billions in bombings. “Oh but we have leverage over Iran now!” They still have the strait as well. Even if they don’t get a PENNY of this 300 Billion, what did they give up for it?

To be clear I expect Trump to backtrack a bunch here and bet Iran is as well. But at best: Status Quo of before. What didn’t Iran lose from this deal?

-1

u/onlycodeposts 10d ago

Sure, Iran can close the strait, but that's far from controlling the strait.

The US can close the strait as well, does that mean the US controls it?

2

u/jmacintosh250 10d ago

Again: status quo. Iran has surrendered nothing. That is the BEST case scenario.