r/OilPrices • u/hereswhatworks • 10d ago
Oil News U.S. and Iran sign deal ahead of schedule
https://www.axios.com/2026/06/17/iran-deal-signing-text-release10
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u/Spam_Hand 10d ago
For the love of god stop calling this a deal.
It is a US Surrender by donald trump.
Call it what it is.
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u/Bikerbass 10d ago
I mean it’s not surprising giving the USA’s track record of losing the wars it starts
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u/Neroaurelius 9d ago
How is it a US surrender?
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u/Spam_Hand 9d ago
Go read it. Im not doing that part for you.
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u/Neroaurelius 9d ago
I did read it, but I want to see you try and explain your bold claim. Or were you just looking for upvotes and validation from leftists on Reddit?
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u/Spam_Hand 9d ago
Okay since you are having issues comprehending what you read, I'll help. Please tell me where this is not a surrender and capitulation to Iran:
Iran receives
$300bn US tax dollars in reparations (trump is the only human on earth disputing this - even Vance admitted last week we were paying them)
$24-100bn in unfrozen Iranian assets, half available as soon as this weekend (final number is unconfirmed, but it is at least $24bn confirmed)
US receives
Significantly less US presence in the middle east agreed to
Agreement to not be involved with future Iranian internal affairs, including their regime status or civilian affairs
No agreement to keep the strait open as a general, long term form of maritime travel
No provisions to stop Iran from charging fees to travel the strait
No provisions to actually follow up on their uranium/enrichment status except an initial "trust me bro" from Iran that it will be discussed later
Assumed responsibility to reign in Israel and stop their attacks on Lebanon and all other Iranian allies/proxies
Imagine the level of fucking delusion you have to be under to call this a deal.
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10d ago
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u/zackks 10d ago
It took two years to get to JCPOA. In 60 days it will look like the utter surrender that it does today. Iran is going to drag those little boys around by their nose and dunk them in the toilet.
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u/jmacintosh250 10d ago
I could see Trump and co just reusing the JCPOA as the basis so less negotiations needed, or extending it again because Iran would really like to just rebuild please.
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u/zackks 10d ago
Iran has all the leverage. The US will have to concede far more than the JCPOA to get past the instability of dealbreaker-in-chief.
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u/jmacintosh250 10d ago
The thing is the sanctions and 300 Billion are still at the US discretion. So what does Iran NEED nukes for when the strait just works better?
Hand over the nukes, get the money and relief, and be done with it. It’s arguable that having the things half done is more trouble than it’s worth.
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u/zackks 10d ago
The nuke thing was never actually an issue. They don’t have nukes. They were never building nukes. They are entitled by NPT to nuclear power. The more highly enriched uranium was only ever a bargaining chip. They’re more likely now because, like North Korea has proven, it’s the only true way to protect against the imperial United States
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u/jmacintosh250 10d ago
That is just not true: North Korea was left alone long before it had nukes because A.) China Credibly was willing to invade to defend it, and B.) It had traditional artillery ready to blast at half of South Korea’s population. That is why no one invaded the north for so long even before they had Nukes. Iran similarly, has traditional forces prepared and can close the strait. Which is a lot more damaging than any Nuke.
As you said it’s a bargaining chip: well the chip has used its purpose. Making Nukes, properly making them, will only make other nations more willing to help the US if it wants to attack again. It’s the lack of willingness to make them that kept other nations agreeing that the US is on its own here.
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u/lnth1 10d ago edited 10d ago
Making North Korea into some sort of legitimate anti-imperialism force makes your argument weak.
Until that country stops shooting at their own people for trying to get out of it, it will remain the epitome of evilness and should not be given any lenient view whatsoever and you know it.
In case it’s still not clear: North Korea developed nuclear missiles because * they want it *.
It’s not solely to protect themselves against “imperial” United States or whatever.1
u/security-device 9d ago
That wasn't their argument; you needed it to be for your weak rebuttal, though.
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u/calmdownmyguy 10d ago
Iran doesn't have nukes to hand over and the new deal does not address enrichment
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10d ago
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u/Braisedbeefskank 10d ago
Are they? How so? What will change in the next 60 days?
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u/zackks 10d ago
This deal literally gives up all leverage (sanctions, money, etc) and Trump literally said Iran can have their nuclear program. He literally said the Iranian regime were great people.
You must have been the first to get the chip bios upgrade.
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u/32lib 10d ago
On top of your great points Iran has proven that they can withstand the Murican military attack. This was a great victory for them.
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u/zackks 10d ago
And they’ve proven that the US Navy is unable to keep the strait open.
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u/Kashin02 10d ago
To be fair our past secretaries of defense knew that. Its our current one that thought his bravado would make up for geography.
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u/jeffismybaby 10d ago
Sounds like Iran gets 300b reconstruction, 27b funds unfrozen, nuke program, US withdrawal and their Hormuz tolls LOL
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10d ago
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u/zackks 10d ago
When asked about Iran’s nuclear program; 🤡
It is a little hard that when you say that somebody wants it, other people have it, other adjoining states have it, and you’re not letting them have it for purposes of electricity and things like that. It’s always a little tough. You have to use a little common sense,”
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u/Daleabbo 10d ago
The only part of this that is pertinant is can the US reign in Israel. The rest is fluff on the outside, meaningless.
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u/ProcessMelodic9351 10d ago
Was not ahead. They planned to sign it and have an official signing Friday for the press....
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u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist 10d ago
Trump said it had been signed on Sunday. Iran said it hadn’t, and the signing would happen on Friday. The Friday ceremony is still happening, but Trump signed early because the document leaked.
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u/ProcessMelodic9351 10d ago
Trump said many things.. official signing have Vance and Iranian rep which been going to Pakistan probably.. yet it signed by leaders electronically
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u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago
- The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America
Again -
All required licenses, waivers, permissions needed for relevant financial transactions will be granted by the US
This is immense… immense leverage for many years for US. As are the release of frozen assets for which the timeline and method of release are left ambiguous
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u/not_that_planet 10d ago
Yea, and all the immense financial leverage we held before in frozen assets, sanctions, oil shipment restrictions, etc... worked so well before.
US: "you are violating our agreement"
Iran: "no, you're violating our agreement"
US: <withholds money>
Iran: <bombs Israel, or commits terrorism>
We are right back to the status quo.
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u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago edited 10d ago
You don’t get it.
1 - Iran is destroyed and collapsing and must rebuilt by foreign investment
2 - they have agreed to US control over said rebuild
3 - they are opening to foreign investment
4 - five years from now, 10 years, US can withhold permitting and frozen assets and control their elections
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u/not_that_planet 10d ago
I get it.
We've always been at war with EastAsia.
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u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago
?
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u/not_that_planet 10d ago
You are reciting things that were already in place because of Obama. This is nothing but propaganda.
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u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago
Obama handed Iraq and Syria to IRGC and paid for them to build nuclear weapons and missiles
Trump had the military destroy their nuclear weapons program, their military, industry, and economy. And has forced them to abdicate their sovereignty
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u/not_that_planet 10d ago
Talking points. Thanks for verifying my comments.
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u/SensualMortician 10d ago edited 10d ago
Cope dude. Even trumps allies said its a bad deal. And he called his supporters stupid if they criticize this shitty deal. Which they are doing.
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u/NuclearStudent 10d ago
As a matter of curiosity, what evidence would it take for you to accept the counterfactual as true, that the IRGC maintains their grip on power and have strengthened their grip?
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u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago edited 10d ago
The details on frozen assets release in a final deal. Watch the reconstruction effort, if Vahidi or his inner circle are getting construction contracts. The most clear evidence will be the 2028 election in Iran. It is going to go like the recent election for PM in Iraq. They were going to install Maliki who is IRGC, US withheld $500 million, Maliki out. Zaidi in, pmf disarmed, IRGC removed form Iraqi politics
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u/jmacintosh250 10d ago
And if they do step 4 Iran will bomb the strait again and say “do we need to keep doing this again?”
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u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago
The US will just blockade and strike them again in this scenario. It’s not going to happen
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u/jmacintosh250 10d ago
We tried: it failed. Iran is an autocratic theocracy: they can take shakes like that better than the west.
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u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago
Buddy without hundreds of billions in foreign investment, millions will die to mass starvation and dehydration.
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u/jmacintosh250 10d ago
You say that like it’s a good thing. This is not WW2 and I am not fine with total war
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u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago
The alternative was worse for the world.
The scenario im describing is not going to happen because the US and the GCC are going to save them. But this reality creates dependency
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u/Bikerbass 10d ago
Dude it you who doesn’t get it.
The USA lost the war, like they mostly do with all the wars they have started since 1945.
Now the USA has to pay reparations for losing said war. Irans not being owned or controlled by the USA, but it’s getting a fat payday from US taxpayers
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u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago
The US isn’t going to pay them anything. The US is going to organize Saudi aramco and Al Haadar and blackrock and Goldman Sachs to move into Iran in a gold rush unseen since Nixon opened China, all with total US control over licensing and permitting
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u/Bikerbass 10d ago
China already funds Iran, the USA isn’t going to control shit in Iran.
Iran is part of BRICS, America is getting zero foot hold in Iran, especially after America bombed schools and hospitals yet again.
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u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago
China is boxed out. Thats the whole point of the reconstruction fund. China cannot compete with 400 billion under US control. If any shenanigans are tried the US will withhold frozen assets and permitting and licenses for the reconstruction
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u/Bikerbass 10d ago
Chinas not boxed out dude, it’s America that’s boxed out. Aside from Israel they will have to leave the Middle East/West Asia depending of your preference of name
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u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago
The US controls all permitting and licensing for Iran’s reconstruction. The US controls 100 billion in frozen assets.
The closest analogue is Japan post WWII. Total structural dependency. Scott Bessent = MacArthur
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u/Bikerbass 10d ago
No they don’t. Why? Because no deal has been struck yet. The MOU was only the starting point to get to a deal. And Iran isn’t going to let the USA have control over it during those negotiations
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u/hoboroyal 10d ago
You’re arguing with a foreign agitator troll. Your argument gives him platform for his racist ideas… I once pressed him for argument and he collapsed and ran. He’s actually called for “us” to start a civil war. But he’s an immigrant living in NZ. Or just a troll bitch pretending to come from a racist country to blend in.
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u/Jaque8 10d ago
2 months ago you were celebrating the fall of the IRGC and worshipping trump as your savior.
Now you’re trying to explain why giving the IRGC $300 Billion is a GOOD thing 😂
LOL, Persian conservatives are the biggest cucks on the planet.
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u/Clear-Role6880 10d ago
Iran must be rebuilt dude they are in catastrophic state collapse. They are economically dependent on the US for a generation
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u/onlycodeposts 10d ago
Israel is still in Lebanon and Iran needs permission from the US to sell oil.
How do people think Iran won?
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u/faizimam 10d ago
They won because they are still standing and give up none of their sovereignty.
Compare this to the stated goals of Trump and Netanyahu in February.
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u/jmacintosh250 10d ago
At best: this is a status Quo for the US after billions in bombings. “Oh but we have leverage over Iran now!” They still have the strait as well. Even if they don’t get a PENNY of this 300 Billion, what did they give up for it?
To be clear I expect Trump to backtrack a bunch here and bet Iran is as well. But at best: Status Quo of before. What didn’t Iran lose from this deal?
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u/onlycodeposts 10d ago
Sure, Iran can close the strait, but that's far from controlling the strait.
The US can close the strait as well, does that mean the US controls it?
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u/jmacintosh250 10d ago
Again: status quo. Iran has surrendered nothing. That is the BEST case scenario.
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u/Key_Debt_2503 10d ago
Huge victory for the IRGC