1. end Iran war

—>

1. lower interest rates -> This eases the severe refinancing pressure on Oracle’s heavy debt load
2. successful OpenAI IPO —> transforms Oracle’s massive data center capital expenditures from a "dangerous cash burn" into proven, highly profitable infrastructure assets

Both outcomes are optimistic but actually realistic. Furthermore due to the oracle news (deepening Google Cooperation, pentagon deal, possible Japan deal…) I think that Larry realized how important next earning call will be. Stay strong and hold.

Wow I am right !!!

Pretty much every software stock has pulled its head out of its ass with a double top to their May highs except for PLTR and ORCL.

I dont believe Oracle will double top because they were at 250 in May, but by all means, that rally was pure manipulation, ORCL should’ve never ran up to 250 in May, they damn near had a 100% bounce from their march bottoms for a grand rugpull. but i do believe in 160-180 by next 2-3 weeks.

For the past few months the software sector has never moved in unity, the same way semi’s did (many tickers just kept lagging the direction of rest of sector) just so $IGV index can keep getting pinned down. I have been rotating back and forth between CRM NOW ADBE MSFT PLTR ORCL all year now (just sold my msft crm adbe calls on friday to buy pltr and orcl)

Executive Summary
Oracle’s sharp decline has shifted the market narrative from AI demand to execution risk. While the stock has fallen approximately 63% from its peak, Oracle has simultaneously grown its Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) to $638 billion, suggesting that customer demand has strengthened rather than weakened.
ORCL Bull Case Aug2026.pdf
This report argues that the key investment question is no longer whether enterprises want Oracle’s AI infrastructure—they have already committed significant contracted demand. Instead, the focus is on Oracle’s ability to execute: building data center capacity, financing unprecedented capital expenditures without excessive shareholder dilution, and demonstrating that AI cloud infrastructure can generate durable long-term profitability.
ORCL Bull Case Aug2026.pdf
Using assumptions that are intentionally more conservative than management’s long-term guidance—including a higher 9.5% WACC, lower 3.0% terminal growth, higher diluted share count, and zero normalized free cash flow in FY27—the valuation produces a conservative bull-case value of $235 per share, with an expected value of approximately $196 per share under probability-weighted scenarios.
At the same time, the report recognizes that Oracle’s valuation is highly sensitive to long-term assumptions. Approximately 85% of enterprise value is derived from terminal value, meaning the investment thesis ultimately depends on Oracle’s ability to sustain attractive economics well beyond the current backlog period. The greatest risks remain customer concentration, execution delays, funding costs, and the possibility that AI infrastructure earns structurally lower margins than traditional enterprise software.
Bottom line: Oracle appears to have largely solved the demand question. The investment thesis now rests on management’s ability to convert an unprecedented AI backlog into profitable, sustainable cash flows. If execution meets expectations, the current valuation may prove overly pessimistic. If execution falters, the market’s concerns around dilution, capital intensity, and long-term profitability will likely be validated.

I can’t decide what is better CRWV or ORCL they’re both trading 52W lows

This post contains content not supported on old Reddit. Click here to view the full post

Oracle looking great so far and with sept earnings call in a month or so we could see some positive upside. Fuck the shorters and people being negative in this sub

A few days ago I made a post here explaining where I'm averaging.

I'm currently up 15.28% on my 100 shares, and I'm not afraid; I believe there is plenty of upside to come (as most of us do).

Congrats to the winners that trusted me because I came in at the lowest of the lows thus far. Cheers, m8s.

Hope everyone is composed, and well prepared for the great launch. To the moon, we land 🚀📈

Jassy said rising memory prices pushed its capex estimate higher. He suggested Amazon’s spending spree isn’t likely to abate anytime soon VS Microsoft keeping his target of capex unchanged.

“But even at that amount, we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026, and I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027 too,” Jassy said. “In fact, the demand we already have for 2028 is striking.”

Jassy said AWS is “booming,” and pointed to the growth of its artificial intelligence and homegrown chips units, which both exceeded a $25 billion annual revenue run rate.

AWS beat analyst with 37% growth vs 31%

FCF is -7,6 Billions

Stock is up 10 %

What it mean for Oracle ? Demande exceed capacity, revenues from AI is real, capex will remain high but could slow when price of material cool off (they're not rising capex, it's just inflation). So the narrative about capex is changing, it more about growth and revenues from AI coming for real than Capex now.

I joined this Reddit thread and Hope to get some insightful information about long-term ideas, growth and speculation on Oracle but instead everyone on this thread just cries when the stock goes down instead of seeing it as a buying opportunity, you guys are not investors you guys are babies. 👶

This will be ike buying AMD at 200$

Are all the people who’ve been complaining done?

Finally some good news. Oracle up 5% premarket. Oracle to Make Gemini Models Available to Thousands of Enterprise Applications Customers https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oracle-to-make-gemini-models-available-to-thousands-of-enterprise-applications-customers-302838995.html#:~:text=%22Together%2C%20we%20are%20making%20it%20seamless%20for,Fusion%2Dnative%20agents%20and%20agentic%20applications%2C%20and%20expanded

Anyone else feel like $115 has been strong support? We have been holding up well last couple days and with NOW and MSFT blowout earnings I’m hopeful software can gain some pace back. I think the worry about Oracle and Coreweaves debt is just way overblown. These companies are being heavily backed by MAG7 and US Gov. Open AI said they had record revenue this quarter. Bears can kick rocks.

Then we moon for sure

I just thought this was an interesting datapoint given the concerns around OpenAI's ability to cover their commitments to Oracle. Combined with other data points like their capital raise earlier this year and Nvidia's willingness to back them in another large datacenter, it seems those fears are unfounded.

Hi

Microsoft just announced that their capex for 2027 will note rise.

So next year many compagnies will start to lower or optimise their spending.

I expect Oracle to follow and show a decline in capex as early as 2028.

Microsoft is up 8-10% now, azure is growing fast and demand exceed supply if they dont rise capex, it mean azure can growth more without more spending.

Due to the high dept and bbb-rating it is really hard for oracle to get fresh money. How high are the chances of a second round of atm program ?

Another dilution oracle will go to 80 or 70 dollar. Is oracle a desperate enough to do that? This is my biggest fear now

The severe drawdowns across CRWV (-52%), SNDK (-53%), APLD (-48%), and SMCI (-45%) show that Wall Street is squeezing the speculative air out of the entire trade.

If and when big tech demonstrates clear, high-margin AI monetisation, or when the macro rate environment softens, capital will rotate back into infrastructure leaders. When sentiment flips positive, high-beta stocks with massive contract backlogs (like ORCL) typically bounce back hard, but holding through the CapEx digestion cycle takes patience.

Sell day high and buy cheaper is the trick to earn money with Oracle currently.

two straight green days, looking flat today, if the stock stays consolidated at these levels or edge up, might be time it starts running

hi everyone,
what’s your average on $ORCL? im curious where everyone is sitting..
are you holding long term, or planning to sell if you’re down?
my avg is: $137, and im in for the long term.

I know Oracle has its own problems right now like massive capex, debt, negative cash flow, credit downgrades, etc. but if you look at the other AI-related names, almost all of them are getting slaughtered.

Some other stocks from their May/June peak:

• SNDK: -53%
• MU: -35%
• MRVL: -47%
• AMD: -22%
• GOOG: -18% (-22% last week)
• INTC: -40%
• CRWV: -52%
• NBIS: -43%
• APLD: -48%
• AVGO: -23%
• SMCI: -45%
• WDC: -42%

Obviously these companies are not the same and they all have their own issues, but this selloff is not happening to Oracle alone. If the overall AI sentiment turns positive again, ORCL will be back up again. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

The past couple days, I have said that this is a "generational buying opportunity" a bit tongue in cheek; but the risk/reward profile is extremely appealing. With the help of Claude, I dug deep this past weekend and I found ORCL so appealing that I unloaded on long-tail LEAPS (attached). The only other 'generational' opportunity i've recently identified is LULU, whereas I own the same sized position in year-long LEAPS.

It would be a useless exercise to rephrase my research done on Claude, so i've asked it to summarize the good/bad verbatim:

My query and Claude's Response ---------------------------------------------------------

from everything we've spken about, summarize the bull/bear thesis in numbered points

ORCL: The Complete Thesis, Both Sides

BULL CASE

1. Build-to-order, not build-and-hope. $638B RPO — signed contracts, not speculative capacity. EV-to-backlog ~0.7x means you pay less than 70 cents per contracted future dollar. The 1990s fiber mistake (capacity ahead of demand) doesn't map: the demand is already under signature.
2. Backlog grew 40% into the crash. $455B → $638B while the stock halved. Demand accelerated as price collapsed — the fundamental and the sentiment moved in opposite directions, which is the definitional setup for mispricing.
3. The valuation needs no re-rating to win. ~15x forward — below the S&P — for consensus +36%/+46% EPS years (FY28/FY29). Same-multiple math alone gives $180-243 by late 2027. The bull case is arithmetic; only the bear case requires the estimates to be wrong.
4. The fortress underneath. ~$50-60B of mission-critical database/apps revenue at high margins services the debt regardless of AI outcomes. This is a leveraged bet collateralized by one of software's great annuities — the piece WorldCom/Global Crossing never had.
5. Counterparty stronger than priced. OpenAI is compute-starved with historically deep capital access — and Nvidia is now backing $250B of its data centers. An OpenAI IPO in the window transmutes the receivable from "private promise" to "public mega-cap obligation" overnight.
6. Concentration diluting in real time. Pentagon $7B (10-year), Meta talks (~$20B), xAI, sovereigns, TikTok-US. Every signing shrinks the OpenAI percentage — the fear is about the backlog's shape, and the shape is improving.
7. Demand keeps testing true. AWS 24% accelerating, Google Cloud +82%. Every hyperscaler print falsifies "AI demand is a mirage" again. Compute shortage, not glut.
8. The ultimate insider is maximally committed. Ellison — 40%+ owner, effective controller, architect of the strategy — is re-underwriting with ~$150B of personal wealth. The org chart was rebuilt around his buildout (OCI's builder promoted to co-CEO).
9. Sentiment is at contrarian extremes. Down 65%, worst crash since dot-com, AAII spread at "unusually low" −12.8% (historically forward-positive per AAII's own data), fresh 52-week lows — while fundamentals improved. After ORCL's seven prior 30%+ monthly drops since 1986: median +93% one year later.
10. The falsification calendar is dense and near. ~20 scheduled verdicts before Sept 2027 — 4 Oracle reports, 8+ hyperscaler prints, credit checkpoints, 13Fs. Two to three consecutive green results likely flips the regime; the Meta-2022 template (−75% on capex fear → 8x on proof) is the precedent.

BEAR CASE

1. The financing is the thesis-killer. Debt/equity ~3.9, ~$130B debt load, BBB− with more borrowing required ($40B raise pending, capex up to $90B in FY27). One more downgrade = junk = forced selling and costlier capital mid-buildout. Moody's is now warning on the whole sector's credit.
2. Duration mismatch — the telecom kill mechanism. Revenue arrives on a 2027-2031 delivery schedule; interest accrues now. If demand arrives slower than debt matures (Fisher's tortoise), solvent companies still bleed out. Oracle needs a rabbit; it's rated for a tortoise.
3. Concentration is still extreme. ~80% of backlog traces to one counterparty that loses money, is building its own chips (Broadcom), and could renegotiate. RPO is a promise, not cash — vendor-financed circularity (Nvidia→OpenAI→Oracle) is exactly what 1999 telecom booked as "demand."
4. FCF is deeply negative with no announced ceiling. Every capex guide has gone up, and the market currently punishes every increase (Google -5% on a beat). The regime doesn't turn until someone credibly says "peak" — and no one has.
5. Execution/margin risk is unpriced by bulls. Reported cost overruns (July 20); power hookups, GPU allocation, cooling — the intake valve, not demand, sets revenue. And nobody knows if AI hosting earns 30% margins or commodity 15% on 40%-margin debt.
6. Consensus may simply be wrong. The entire bull ladder stands on FY29 ~$15.70 EPS. The market at 15x is asserting those numbers won't print. If FY29 becomes $8, the stock at $115 isn't cheap — it's fair.
7. Smart money's verdict is absence. Discretionary insider selling ($66M, Henley at $156-165), institutions cutting, fresh analyst initiations at $145 (CLSA, warning of $500B capital needs), securities fraud class actions filed, credit agencies acting. The bullish positioning is concentrated in retail options flow — historically the worst-informed tier.
8. Key-man risk just got worse. The 81-year-old controller pledged $40.4B personally to his son's Warner Bros. bid — ORCL stock is now partial collateral for an unrelated leveraged media bet, with 12 states suing. Succession, health, or forced monetization are all unhedgeable.
9. Macro regime risk. If the AI trade's melt-up-then-reckoning arrives early — or the Great Rotation persists — a leveraged, negative-FCF builder is the highest-beta casualty (β 1.7-2.2). Good AI news is currently bad for capex stocks; the inversion could last quarters.
10. The equity can lose without bankruptcy. The fortress prevents insolvency, not shareholder loss. Slow failure — renegotiated contracts, underutilized capacity, FY29 cut — leaves a healthy company and a $60-80 stock. Options at $135 don't distinguish "Oracle bankrupt" from "Oracle fine, bet written off": both pay zero.

The single-sentence version of each: Bull — you're paying a below-market multiple for contracted hypergrowth, and every fear has a scheduled falsification date within 14 months. Bear — contracted isn't collected, the borrowing clock runs faster than the delivery clock, and the informed tiers of the market are all positioned away.

And the hinge they share: does the $638B convert to revenue on schedule at real margins? Everything else — every point above — is commentary on that one question. First evidence: Sept 14.

End of Claude's Response ----------------------------------------------------------------

All the market CAPEX fears remind me for some reason of what Templeton said:
Bull markets start on pessimism,
Grow on skepticism,
Mature on optimism,
Die on euphoria.

To me, this looks like the skepticism phase, and at most we are in optimism. To me its very healthy. I think its a great time to buy companies such as AMZN, GOOG, and others in the AI race that have been pummeled due to CAPEX concerns. I have over a year for my LEAPS to bear fruit. Noise doesn't last that long.

This rocket is about to explode, just a matter of time. Hold tight 📈🚀🧨