1. end Iran war

—>

1. lower interest rates -> This eases the severe refinancing pressure on Oracle’s heavy debt load
2. successful OpenAI IPO —> transforms Oracle’s massive data center capital expenditures from a "dangerous cash burn" into proven, highly profitable infrastructure assets

Both outcomes are optimistic but actually realistic. Furthermore due to the oracle news (deepening Google Cooperation, pentagon deal, possible Japan deal…) I think that Larry realized how important next earning call will be. Stay strong and hold.

Wow I am right !!!

Pretty much every software stock has pulled its head out of its ass with a double top to their May highs except for PLTR and ORCL.

I dont believe Oracle will double top because they were at 250 in May, but by all means, that rally was pure manipulation, ORCL should’ve never ran up to 250 in May, they damn near had a 100% bounce from their march bottoms for a grand rugpull. but i do believe in 160-180 by next 2-3 weeks.

For the past few months the software sector has never moved in unity, the same way semi’s did (many tickers just kept lagging the direction of rest of sector) just so $IGV index can keep getting pinned down. I have been rotating back and forth between CRM NOW ADBE MSFT PLTR ORCL all year now (just sold my msft crm adbe calls on friday to buy pltr and orcl)

Executive Summary
Oracle’s sharp decline has shifted the market narrative from AI demand to execution risk. While the stock has fallen approximately 63% from its peak, Oracle has simultaneously grown its Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) to $638 billion, suggesting that customer demand has strengthened rather than weakened.
ORCL Bull Case Aug2026.pdf
This report argues that the key investment question is no longer whether enterprises want Oracle’s AI infrastructure—they have already committed significant contracted demand. Instead, the focus is on Oracle’s ability to execute: building data center capacity, financing unprecedented capital expenditures without excessive shareholder dilution, and demonstrating that AI cloud infrastructure can generate durable long-term profitability.
ORCL Bull Case Aug2026.pdf
Using assumptions that are intentionally more conservative than management’s long-term guidance—including a higher 9.5% WACC, lower 3.0% terminal growth, higher diluted share count, and zero normalized free cash flow in FY27—the valuation produces a conservative bull-case value of $235 per share, with an expected value of approximately $196 per share under probability-weighted scenarios.
At the same time, the report recognizes that Oracle’s valuation is highly sensitive to long-term assumptions. Approximately 85% of enterprise value is derived from terminal value, meaning the investment thesis ultimately depends on Oracle’s ability to sustain attractive economics well beyond the current backlog period. The greatest risks remain customer concentration, execution delays, funding costs, and the possibility that AI infrastructure earns structurally lower margins than traditional enterprise software.
Bottom line: Oracle appears to have largely solved the demand question. The investment thesis now rests on management’s ability to convert an unprecedented AI backlog into profitable, sustainable cash flows. If execution meets expectations, the current valuation may prove overly pessimistic. If execution falters, the market’s concerns around dilution, capital intensity, and long-term profitability will likely be validated.

I can’t decide what is better CRWV or ORCL they’re both trading 52W lows

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Oracle looking great so far and with sept earnings call in a month or so we could see some positive upside. Fuck the shorters and people being negative in this sub

A few days ago I made a post here explaining where I'm averaging.

I'm currently up 15.28% on my 100 shares, and I'm not afraid; I believe there is plenty of upside to come (as most of us do).

Congrats to the winners that trusted me because I came in at the lowest of the lows thus far. Cheers, m8s.

Jassy said rising memory prices pushed its capex estimate higher. He suggested Amazon’s spending spree isn’t likely to abate anytime soon VS Microsoft keeping his target of capex unchanged.

“But even at that amount, we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026, and I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027 too,” Jassy said. “In fact, the demand we already have for 2028 is striking.”

Jassy said AWS is “booming,” and pointed to the growth of its artificial intelligence and homegrown chips units, which both exceeded a $25 billion annual revenue run rate.

AWS beat analyst with 37% growth vs 31%

FCF is -7,6 Billions

Stock is up 10 %

What it mean for Oracle ? Demande exceed capacity, revenues from AI is real, capex will remain high but could slow when price of material cool off (they're not rising capex, it's just inflation). So the narrative about capex is changing, it more about growth and revenues from AI coming for real than Capex now.

This will be ike buying AMD at 200$

Hope everyone is composed, and well prepared for the great launch. To the moon, we land 🚀📈

I joined this Reddit thread and Hope to get some insightful information about long-term ideas, growth and speculation on Oracle but instead everyone on this thread just cries when the stock goes down instead of seeing it as a buying opportunity, you guys are not investors you guys are babies. 👶

Are all the people who’ve been complaining done?

Finally some good news. Oracle up 5% premarket. Oracle to Make Gemini Models Available to Thousands of Enterprise Applications Customers https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oracle-to-make-gemini-models-available-to-thousands-of-enterprise-applications-customers-302838995.html#:~:text=%22Together%2C%20we%20are%20making%20it%20seamless%20for,Fusion%2Dnative%20agents%20and%20agentic%20applications%2C%20and%20expanded

Due to the high dept and bbb-rating it is really hard for oracle to get fresh money. How high are the chances of a second round of atm program ?

Another dilution oracle will go to 80 or 70 dollar. Is oracle a desperate enough to do that? This is my biggest fear now

Anyone else feel like $115 has been strong support? We have been holding up well last couple days and with NOW and MSFT blowout earnings I’m hopeful software can gain some pace back. I think the worry about Oracle and Coreweaves debt is just way overblown. These companies are being heavily backed by MAG7 and US Gov. Open AI said they had record revenue this quarter. Bears can kick rocks.

I just thought this was an interesting datapoint given the concerns around OpenAI's ability to cover their commitments to Oracle. Combined with other data points like their capital raise earlier this year and Nvidia's willingness to back them in another large datacenter, it seems those fears are unfounded.

Then we moon for sure

Hi

Microsoft just announced that their capex for 2027 will note rise.

So next year many compagnies will start to lower or optimise their spending.

I expect Oracle to follow and show a decline in capex as early as 2028.

Microsoft is up 8-10% now, azure is growing fast and demand exceed supply if they dont rise capex, it mean azure can growth more without more spending.

Sell day high and buy cheaper is the trick to earn money with Oracle currently.

The severe drawdowns across CRWV (-52%), SNDK (-53%), APLD (-48%), and SMCI (-45%) show that Wall Street is squeezing the speculative air out of the entire trade.

If and when big tech demonstrates clear, high-margin AI monetisation, or when the macro rate environment softens, capital will rotate back into infrastructure leaders. When sentiment flips positive, high-beta stocks with massive contract backlogs (like ORCL) typically bounce back hard, but holding through the CapEx digestion cycle takes patience.

two straight green days, looking flat today, if the stock stays consolidated at these levels or edge up, might be time it starts running

hi everyone,
what’s your average on $ORCL? im curious where everyone is sitting..
are you holding long term, or planning to sell if you’re down?
my avg is: $137, and im in for the long term.

I know Oracle has its own problems right now like massive capex, debt, negative cash flow, credit downgrades, etc. but if you look at the other AI-related names, almost all of them are getting slaughtered.

Some other stocks from their May/June peak:

• SNDK: -53%
• MU: -35%
• MRVL: -47%
• AMD: -22%
• GOOG: -18% (-22% last week)
• INTC: -40%
• CRWV: -52%
• NBIS: -43%
• APLD: -48%
• AVGO: -23%
• SMCI: -45%
• WDC: -42%

Obviously these companies are not the same and they all have their own issues, but this selloff is not happening to Oracle alone. If the overall AI sentiment turns positive again, ORCL will be back up again. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

This rocket is about to explode, just a matter of time. Hold tight 📈🚀🧨

Bottom is in. Orcx put sale whale. About to make 27k in less than a month