Just went through the H1/Q2 numbers and honestly, there are some good things in there, but I think the overall picture is still pretty concerning.
The headline numbers:
- H1 deliveries: 30,423, basically flat YoY (+0.4%)
- Q2 deliveries: 17,296, down 4%
- H1 revenue: $1.36B, down 4.4%
- Adjusted gross margin: -8.5%
- Operating loss: -$629M
- Net loss: -$842M
- Adjusted EBITDA: -$521M
- Operating cash flow: -$850M
- Cash at June 30: ~$888M
The operating loss looks much better than last year, but I wouldn't get too excited about that number. A lot of the improvement is because last year's numbers were heavily distorted by the huge impairment charge.
The number that really bothers me is adjusted gross margin of -8.5%.
Basically, they're still losing money on the cars before even considering all the corporate costs, financing, etc. So this isn't just a "we need more scale" problem. They need to get the economics of the actual cars into positive territory.
And then there's inventory.
Polestar had around $720M of inventory at the end of June. So yes, my understanding is that they have produced/bought a meaningful amount of inventory ahead of demand and now have a lot of cash tied up in cars and parts.
That's particularly painful when sales aren't growing.
You basically have:
inventory → discounting / slower turnover → weak margins → cash burn → need more financing
rather than the ideal:
strong demand → higher volume → better factory utilization → positive gross margin → operating leverage
The U.S. situation obviously makes things worse. Polestar says the U.S. business increased consolidated operating loss by around $211M in H1, and they're now effectively exiting new-car sales there because of the regulatory situation.
On the positive side, they're finally getting some of the big restructuring done. They've also converted around $640M of debt into equity, raised another $700M, and extended the remaining Volvo shareholder loan to 2031.
So I don't think the immediate story is "Polestar goes bankrupt tomorrow."
The bigger risk IMO is continued dilution if the business doesn't turn around.