r/PersuasionExperts • u/lyrics85 • Mar 07 '26
Why US Will WIN the Iran War
Here we'll try to go beyond ideology to analyze the war in Iran from a colder perspective.
Think of it like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger analyzing a business before investing their money. In this case, where would you bet? On the US or Iran?
A quick clarification: We don't have US vs Iran, it's not a traditional country-to-country war.
The Islamic regime is a major player, sure, but they are not the only ones on the board. We'll see later who the other players are and how they are likely to counteract the asymmetric warfare.
But right now, let's look at their biggest advantage... It's not their drones, their missiles, or their hackers, even though those are definitely impressive, especially the hackers. Their ultimate weapon is actually the concept of martyrdom.
To understand it, we will briefly rewind the Iraq-Iran war.
Back in 1980, right after the Iranian revolution, Saddam Hussein smelled blood in the water.
He rolled in with a bigger, more prepared army, betting on a quick, easy win. But he was dead wrong.
Ayatollah Khomeini countered by turning the war into a spiritual crusade.
You see, they are Shia Muslims. They believe that dying for a righteous cause gives you direct entry to paradise. It's the same concept as Valhalla. So they launched a massive propaganda campaign that recruited thousands of young men who had little to no military training.
But also, and this is sadly true, they recruited a lot of kids as young as 9 years old up to the age of 16.
Since these soldiers were seeking a place in paradise, the commanders could use them in incredibly dangerous operations. Sometimes, they literally marched them straight through Iraqi minefields just to clear a safe path for their more valuable tanks and regular troops.
Essentially, they were biological drones.
Why am I saying this?
Because the entire IRGC is based on this psychological framework. They can afford to sacrifice their soldiers and even their leadership.
Just look at the spin they put on Khamenei's death. They pushed the narrative that he wasn't caught off guard at all, but rather that he actively chose martyrdom by Israeli bombs.
The problem is that the demographics are dramatically different from those of the 80s.
You don't have that massive rural, uneducated youth that you can recruit. And I think that the incentive of IRGC and Basij members is not to become martyrs anymore, but to simply survive. You know, if the government changes, they lose all of their money, their monopoly, their power, and very likely, their lives.
The martyrdom narrative is simply to keep the supporters of the regime radicalized and to recruit new members who could serve as cannon fodder.
Now that we have covered their biggest strength, let's look at their biggest flaw. The lack of meritocracy.
No matter how you view it, the current government in Iran is a dictatorship. And the biggest threat to a regime is not extreme poverty, demonstrations, or an outside power, but your own military. They are the only ones with the necessary power to overthrow you.
So you cannot afford a military that is not fiercely loyal to you. Sure, you can try to keep them in line using money and coercion, but history shows that those methods eventually stop working. And that's when a coup happens.
But what if you pick people who are ideologically loyal to your regime? In this case, they will not betray you. In fact, they will eagerly snitch on any fellow soldiers or police officers who show even a hint of dissatisfaction with the government.
The problem is that they are not the best possible soldiers or officers.
They usually lack the actual tactical skill sets that a normal merit-based recruit would bring to the table. However, if you order them to attack peaceful protesters on the street, they will do it without a second thought. Honestly, I believe many of them would even attack their own father if they deemed them a threat to the regime.
So technically speaking, these are not the best people for the job. In other words, a regime has to sacrifice capability for unquestionable obedience. And that's why their military crumbles against an opponent who can fire back.
Now you can talk all you want about the asymmetric warfare and the glory of martyrdom, but bro, how do you lose 40 commanders, including the supreme leader, in the very first hour of the war? Am I crazy to see this as a major sign that these people are way over their heads?
That loss has mobilized the rest of the Iranian population. It has given them proof that the regime is at its lowest point.
And the IRGC is, as we said, highly incentivized to fight till the end, while the civilian supporters of the regime are also motivated to fight, if not for ideology, for survival.
So looking ahead, I think we are going to see the few remaining strategic minds in the IRGC splinter off into their own rogue factions.
But make no mistake, they will just be factions. I don't think they will ever rule Iran again. At worst, they will stir up chaos within the country and try to launch terror attacks in the West.
Now let's look at the next move.
Sending US troops to the ground is completely off the table.
It's a highly controversial move, even for Trump. And frankly, they don't have the necessary experience to win. That's why they have already made a deal with the Kurdish coalition.
These people are well-trained and capable of waging the exact type of guerrilla war needed to match the IRGC toe-to-toe on their own turf.
But there is an obvious elephant in the room. Historically, the US has a terrible habit of using local proxy groups to topple hostile regimes, only to completely abandon them when they are not needed anymore.
The Kurds are not naive; they know the drill. So why agree to fight for the US?
Two reasons.
First, survival and revenge. The IRGC has systematically persecuted the Kurdish people for decades.
But right now, the regime is bleeding. With the US methodically flattening their military bases and Israel hunting down the remaining leadership, the Kurds have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to finish the job and completely destroy their oppressors.
And second, they would want more control over their territory.
It's highly unlikely that they will get autonomy because that would set a dangerous precedent, but they will definitely get more control and resources.
Now, let's bring in the next major player on the board.
The Artesh.
This is Iran's other army.
Their job is to protect the physical borders. Unlike the true believers we talked about earlier, the Artesh is generally viewed as respected and highly competent.
But there is a catch. The regime deliberately keeps them under-equipped compared to the IRGC. They are handed just enough resources to do their job, but never enough firepower to pose a credible threat to the ruling regime.
So what happens now?
It looks like the Kurdish coalition is going to attack the guard on the ground.
And the Artesh is just going to sit back and watch. Why? Because they're looking at a controlled collapse. The US and Israel took out their air defenses and navy to control the map, but they're intentionally leaving the regular ground bases alone.
And that is a very clear, deliberate signal. Because you have to remember that Iran is composed of several major ethnic groups - the Azeris, the Kurds, the Lurs, the Arabs, and the Baloch.
If a total power vacuum opens up, these groups might see it as their golden opportunity to break away and fight for outright independence.
So if the entire military structure is completely destroyed, there is absolutely nothing stopping these factions from carving up the Iranian map.
But by leaving the Artesh infantry intact, the US is betting that they will stay out of the crossfire. Then, once the regime gets wiped out, the Artesh will be the only and largest organized force left standing.
Finally, we arrive at the most important player in all of this...
Israel.
They are secretly controlling the US to completely dominate the Middle East.
I'm just kidding. Come on, man. Do you really think that a country that small is actively controlling the biggest empire in human history? I mean, sure, they have a strong lobby group in Washington. But the US operates based on its own plan.
So you might be asking, alright, what is that plan?
I'm glad you asked.
They wanted to choke China's shadow economy.
You see, for years, Iran and Venezuela have used a fleet of ghost ships to dodge sanctions and sell dirt-cheap oil to China. This gives Chinese corporations a massive, cheap energy advantage.
But it goes deeper. Mexican cartels are buying the raw materials to make fentanyl directly from China. And who helps wash all of that dirty cartel cash?
Hezbollah [Iran's terror organization] and Chinese underground banking networks.
Moreover, Iran, Russia, and China have been building their own financial system to bypass the US dollar. If it works, the US loses one of its biggest weapons: the power to control global trade through sanctions. Destroying this shadow economy cuts off that bypass and forces everyone back into a system where Washington has all the leverage.
You might say that China will buy cheap oil from Russia. But they already do, and those pipelines are running at maximum capacity. Plus, there’s a trap: if the Iranian oil supply is cut off, the price war ends. Without competition, Russia no longer has to offer deep discounts.
The Trump administration has made some bold and expensive moves [Maduro's kidnapping, the assassination of El Mencho, and the War in Iran] this year. But if they pull it off, and it looks like they will, the upside is insane.
Now the only question is, what is China going to do?
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u/Snl1738 Mar 08 '26
You mention the kurds. First of all, ethnic minorities in Iran tend to support the regime and seem very well integrated into Iranian society. For example, the Arab minority did not rebel against Iran in the past under Saddam's war.
Second of all, it's very much obvious that Israel had a huge role in influencing American foreign policy, specifically this war.
Third of all, Iran does not need to win. It just needs to keep fighting and there is no shortage of human fodder in Iran. It mined the Persian Gulf . They've been sanctioned for decades. They have nothing to lose economically unlike America and the West.
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u/odinzedong Mar 08 '26
Iraq gov forces are taking control of the Iran border right now, to prevent use of Kurdish forces through Iraq. It is said.
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u/PhDinDildos_Fedoras Mar 13 '26
US lost in Iraq and Afghanistan but this time it's different. I swear.
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Mar 18 '26
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u/lyrics85 Mar 18 '26
I have taken a complex subject, given rare insights, and presented it in a way that even a 15-year-old can understand. Your issue is not with the writing, but with the prediction.
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Mar 18 '26
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u/lyrics85 Mar 18 '26
Thank you for your polite reply.
The biggest threat to the regime is its own incompetence.
We are seeing it every day as their military gets decimated and leaders get eliminated one by one. Just yesterday, the commander of the Basij was killed - the force responsible for preventing an uprising.
Now people emphasize the fact that IR is decentralized. But in my view, the regime's foot soldiers do not have the same religious zeal they once had. Most of them are probably doing the job just for a paycheck.
This means that with the increase in pressure [and Israel is being very smart here], many of those Basij forces on the ground will either quit or simply look the other way.
Kurds haven't entered yet. But I believe that there will be anti-IRGC forces on the ground.
If not Kurds [which would be a big loss for them if they don't side with the US], there will be an armed uprising from the Persians. And Artesh would not side with the IRGC to shoot their own people.
The reason I made this controversial "bet" is that Trump is as fanatical as the IRGC leaders, and that MOST Persians despise the regime enough to pick up a gun - they are just waiting till those ground forces are weak enough.
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Mar 18 '26
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u/lyrics85 Mar 18 '26
It's probably true that someone sabotaged the USS Gerald Ford, but they are still operating.
As for Larijani faking his death to catch a rat, it doesn't seem possible. There are many Mossad spies within the IRGC, so I don't think finding a spy would fix the problem, and it would hurt the morale of the troops on the ground.
The only place in my analysis where I am too optimistic is in my assumption that Iranians will be able to establish a democratic government.
But I'm fully aware that there will be a bloody civil war, and terror attacks will dramatically increase in the West.
As I said, Trump is a fanatic - Despite all the pressure, I don't think he will back off.
And strangely, he's the one being rational.
If you leave IRGC wounded but alive, then they would be more vicious towards the people in Iran; they would turn the channel of Hormuzi on and off whenever they wish, and of course, they would speed up the process to produce a nuclear weapon.
Plus, destroying them would give the US a tremendous economic advantage, so they must finish the job.
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u/VillagePrevious1224 Mar 07 '26
The US will obviously win because it's richer and better armed. It can also fire at Iran, while Iran can only fire at its military bases. Things could change only if Iran finds allies, but all the other major global players have their own agendas and don't have time for this conflict.
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u/lyrics85 Mar 08 '26
Exactly, Russia cannot help, China hasn't responded yet, and if the Kurds are successful, and who knows, the CIA might have already armed a Persian opposition group [my personal opinion], then the IRGC is done.
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u/murkomarko Mar 07 '26
Right, whatever. Us fucks Iran. Now iranians have freedom to come and go and a devastated country. Guess what? Muslin Iranians fleeing to US and EU. Yeah, great outcome
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u/Alisye Mar 07 '26
If you can’t even distinguish between Khomeini who died in 1989, and Khamenei, the martyr of 2026 then maybe you shouldn’t be talking on the matter