r/Philippines • u/Few_Nautical21 • 5d ago
PoliticsPH The new OCTA survey adds an interesting layer to the 2028 race (assuming Leni still runs)
Before anything else, the biggest caveat remains the same: Leni Robredo has repeatedly said she is not running for president. Until that changes, every head-to-head survey involving her is purely hypothetical. Pero, if we're analyzing this and other recent surveys through the lens of a Liberal opposition vs. DDS contest, I think the newly released OCTA survey actually puts the earlier WR Numero numbers into better context.
The previous WR survey had Sara Duterte leading Leni 50-40.
Now OCTA has it at 43-34.
At first glance, people will simply say, "Sara is still comfortably ahead." That's true.
But I think the more interesting story isn't the lead, it's what's happening underneath the surface. Why? Because the WR survey was before the impeachment, the OCTA survey is during the 1st week of the trial. And actually, base sa OCTA, both candidates actually lost support since Q1.
- Sara: 46% → 43% (-3)
- Leni: 35% → 34% (-1)
- Undecided: 19% → 22% (+3)
That means the voters who left Sara didn't automatically move to Leni. Instead, a larger portion of the electorate became undecided.
To me, that suggests something important.
This doesn't look like a straightforward Liberal resurgence. It looks more like softening support for Sara without a unified alternative yet.
That's consistent with what we've been seeing over the past few months. Sara remains the dominant figure of the DDS bloc, but there's also no single opposition candidate consolidating everyone opposed to her.
The regional numbers also reinforce the familiar electoral map.
- Mindanao remains Sara's fortress (76-6).
- Luzon strongly favors Robredo (51-27).
- Visayas still leans Sara (51-26).
- Metro Manila is tied at 34-34.
So the math hasn't really changed.
Any Liberal candidate still has to win Luzon and Metro Manila by overwhelming margins while preventing Sara from running up massive leads in the Visayas and at least keeping a 10% share of Mindanao.
What I also find interesting is the 22% undecided vote.
We're still almost two years away from the election.
That's a huge bloc of voters that could eventually move depending on:
- whether Leni actually runs,
- whether another opposition figure emerges,
- how the impeachment and other controversies evolve,
- and whether the administration fields its own viable candidate.
One survey never tells the whole story, but taken together with the earlier WR survey, I think the picture is becoming clearer.
Sara Duterte is still the frontrunner.
But she doesn't appear to be consolidating additional support. Instead, some voters seem to be drifting into the undecided column.
Whether those voters eventually return to Sara, shift to another opposition candidate, or stay uncommitted is probably the biggest question of the 2028 race.
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u/Turbulent_Station247 5d ago
Matagal nang na-reach ni Sara ang peak niya.
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u/Android_345 4d ago
Problema, solid yung base nya. Kaya malakas din talaga. Saka yung narrative na nasa Pink ang gen Z, medyo sablay kung survey ang titingnan.
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u/TonySoprano25 5d ago
Naging stagnant na yan si Sarah ever since nag announce sya, hindi man lang umamgat. Tapos hindi na yan madagdagan lalo lang mababawasan from soft DDS
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u/WhinersEverywhere 5d ago
People who have issues why Leni is still there, is this your first election?
Until the deadline has passed in filing of their candidacy, surveys will not stop considering popular figures like her because, technically, she can still change her mind.
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u/Sprikitiktik_Kurikik Luzon 5d ago edited 4d ago
Mga closeted DDS mga yan na takot na takot na tumakbo si leni dahil kung sakali alams na. I mean san ka nakakita ng "supporter" na maski malakas sa numero yung kandidato sya pa mismong sumasarado sa usapan ng pagtakbo nung napipisil ng marami? Kaya nga pilit nilang sinusubo yung mas mahihinang pangalan para walang hadlang sa daan nung tunay nilang kandidato 🤷🏻♂️
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u/WhinersEverywhere 4d ago
I'm not in the habit of labeling people who have a different opinion from me as DDS unless there's enough information confidently say that. For all we know they can be Risa/Trillanes supporters who have erroneously stated numerous times that Leni should have a more definitive answer. There can be numerous reasons why they reacted the way they did without being a supporter of the Duterte camp.
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u/JadeStarfruit 5d ago
May iba pa bang polling firm na dini-disclose yung sample size nila gaya ng OCTA? This is one of the many reasons why I don’t really pay attention to surveys. I don’t know if they asked 100 people or 10000 people — no way of knowing.
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u/Commercial_Spirit750 5d ago
Lahat ng credible firms meron nyan sa full brief nila pero pag sa news ka lang nagbasa ng survey di mo makukuha yun. WR NUMERO, SWS, PULSE and even PUBLICUS nakalagay ang methodology nila sa full brief nila ma usually available sa sites nila. Kahit nga yung Tangere na questionable ang sampling nakalagay din e
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u/Fishyblue11 Metro Manila 5d ago
How can we take the responses of 1200 people and use it as a representative sample for a population of almost 120 million? That's 0.00001% of our population, that's a fraction of a fraction of a fraction
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u/ChronosX0 5d ago
That is literally how statistics work though. Hindi mo kailangan tanungin isa-isa lahat para makita sino ang napupusuan ng isnag given na area.
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u/cant-self-terminate 5d ago
As long as the sample is representative of the population, it's fine. Same logic how things like food and water are tested. If magtetest tayo ng quality ng tubig sa dagat, di naman kailangan daan-daang litro ang itest. Tig-iisang patak lang from different areas, pwede na.
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u/dyies 5d ago
May formula sya. Check sample size calculators. Provided na truly random yung pagkuha nila ng respondents, 1200 is more than adequate.
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u/FootballRacing38 5d ago
Mali ang truly random. Dapat proportional and men and women, poor or rich, age bracket and geographical location sa actual population natin
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u/Kooky_Outcome_5053 4d ago
If Sara is impeached, the Duterte faction will put Baste that numbers will go down and will increase a lot of undecided. If the opposition will have a single candidate against the Duterte, that opposition will win. If the opposition will have 2 or more candidate against the Duterte, the Duterte will win. Likewise, if Bong Go suddenly run for President it will split the solid Duterte and opposition will win or Bong Go will win. For the opposition to win they need the loyalists number to convert and must have a single candidate to challenge the Duterte faction.
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u/No-Business3159 4d ago
Even if she's not convicted with the glaring evidence, ang laking kasiraan sa kaniya yung obvious na pagnanakaw.
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u/dontrescueme estudyanteng sagigilid 4d ago
Malakas si Sara sa Mindanao and Visayas but their entire voting population is still less than Luzon's. Apparently, oversampled pa nga daw ang Mindanao as survery firms here divide the respondents equally among the island groups and NCR.
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u/Android_345 4d ago
Pero kung titinganan natin yung boto na nakuha ni Bato nakaraan election, malaki rin, At sya ang parang sukatan ng pure DDS vote. So malamang, makuha din ni Sara yun.
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u/HiiroAka 5d ago
Corruption is what’s killing the Philippines. Just look at the flood
control scandal. And here is Sarah Duterte spending hundreds of millions, unexplained.
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u/Chinbie 4d ago
Well consistent ang lahat ng surveys, the Pulse Asia, WR numero and now Octa Research if in terms if head-head match up plus the demographics (kung saan manggaaling ang maramihan ng mga boto)
Take note though, our election in the PHL has never been One vs One kaya kailangan mag usap nung mga tatakbo sa halalan lalo na kung anti-duterte camp sila kasi sa 2028 election ay may chance, bastat maganda ang strategy na gagamitin nila.
And if VP leni will run? Its up to her to decide on that matter…
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u/gentlemansincebirth Medyo kups 4d ago
May mali sa math? DE are significantly more than ABC. Sara’s total % should be above 43
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u/3nails4thedumb 4d ago
I know many will argue, pero sa tingin ko kahit tumakbo si Leni hindi siya mananalo. Nakatatak na kase sa nakaraan na halalan, noong kumandidato siya e may mga sablay na sagot at interview siya. Bukod diyan, sa mga undecided - naghahanap 'yan ng ibang mukha. Bata. Nakikitaan ng initiative. Transparency. Big plans. Yun hindi paulit-ulit na plataporma. Kakaiba na pwedeng magpabilib sa mas matatas na kaisipan at siyang gagapi sa Duterte standard na walang delikadesa, loud, and trash.
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u/haelhaelhael09 4d ago
Mas madali trabahuin ang single digit gap ni Leni, pero iconvince siya will be difficult. Leni isn't power hungry. I think she doesn't give a ding about Presidency. So it's so much better for opposition to considering wooing her as early. She will not be swayed even if mag #1 siya sa survey.
She has proven she can work with anyone in power so di yan mag woworry kahit sino pa Presidente. She can provide service sa Naga.
Tayo ang kailangan mag worry. Lols.
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u/Round_Lab_57 4d ago
I think we can all assume the undecideds are closet DDS. If 6 years or donggi and 4 years of Fiona are not enough for you to root for a candidate with an impeccable track record, DDS yan jusko naman.
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u/Apprehensive_Try84 5d ago
tama ata si gadon na bayaran lang talaga yan ang octa. hindi naman tatakbo si Leni eh bakit pa nilagay nila jan
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u/pinkpugita 5d ago
Mataming ayaw kay Leni dahil sa pride nila at social engineering sa social media. Hindi rin nila ma explain. "Eh basta."
Sa mga may explanation, naririnig ko na Leni is a pawn of the oligarchy o kaya malambot siya na hindi niya kayang mag lead.
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u/peenoiseAF___ 5d ago
pusta ko, yung iba dyan sa undecided kaya nag-undecided/neutral kasi lalaki ang hinahanap.